Created: 10/18/1980

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

Tha agreement between Solidarity and the Warsaw court reportedly reached on Thursday on registration of the union apparently fell apart when the court raisedobjections to the union's registration documents, solidarity responded bytatement that failure to register tha union in the near future would beto breaking the strike settlement signed inugust and would force the union into another strike. (mm}

The Coordinating Commission for Solidarity will meet again on Monday evening. If the union has not beenby that time, the Commission aay declare astrike for later in the week. Such advance notice would give the government time to respond and tha unionists time to formulate specific plans. eamV

Solidarity leader Walesa, who with other unionwas in Warsaw yesterday participating in the workovernment commissionew trade union law, will be touring southern Poland this weekend. Prospectstrike could be discussed at that time.

If some strikes do occur in Poland on Monday, they willisquieting signal that the free trade union leadership la having difficulty in reaching coordinated decisions and controlling its rank and file.

Soviet Attitude

The Solidarity strike threat underlines itsof its ability to reescalate its contest with the regimeigh state of confrontation at any time. It also Indicates an appreciation that the regime, if left to ita own devices, will attempt to meet theterms rather than contemplate draconjan measures that might well prove counterproductive.

Approved far sal

The unionists have shown an appreciation that Moscow ls monitoring the situation closely for any sign that the government has Irretrievably lost the ability to gain the initiative. There has been no authoritative Soviet commentary on the Polish situation for almost threeparty leader Kania began ln earnest attempts to restore the party's unity and purposeentral Committee meeting, ffa

Although East Furopean leaders have fillod the void with warnings of their own, Moscow's silence suggests it believes its continued public pressure ls not necessary at th* moment. Nor have the Soviets escalated political pressure on the Poles through such devicesaeetin of Warsaw Pact leaders or summoning Kania to Moscow.

The Soviets probably will adhere to this posture unless th* confrontation movesigher level. If that happens, tho Soviets probably would consider Because we do not believe confrontation ln Poland is necessarily imminent, the likelihood of Soviet intervention is not currently any higher than itjUnce the strike settlement in August. flfe

- j.

Original document.

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