NID: JAMAICA: ELECTION OUTLOOK

Created: 9/23/1980

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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Election Outlook

Prvtw Minieier Hanley'e mergetio oampaign la dampeningof an overvhelming victory for Che opposition Labor Party in the parlunentar'- election thie fall. I

As the moderate-controlled electoral commissionpreparationa for theto be4 November--the Prime Minister'a campaign isnany local observers that he can beat theIs using the International Monetary Fund asfor government mismanagement and is wagingpropaganda blitz to blame the US for the

Evan though Manley stands to pick up semevotes with his aggressive media tactics, he will have great difficulty undoing the support the moderate Labor Party has built up over the past two years among organized labor, small farmers, the professional and business classes, and the security forces. Porear, the party hasommanding lead in reliable polls, ssjmj

Tensions and street violence probably will increase significantly in the formal campaignset to run from the first week of October to the first week of November. Ruling-party radicals may try totheir forces in the streetsast-ditch effort to steal or postpone the election. If the Labor Party's campaign peaks early or runs short of funds, the outcome probably would be much closer than the polls indicate. |

Even with these uncertainties, however, the Labor Party still appears toetter-than-even chance ofomfortable majority In the next House of Repressntativas. mssj

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