NID: SPECIAL ANALYSES: JAMAICA: ELECTION OUTLOOK

Created: 11/29/1980

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SPECIAL ANALYSES

JAHAICAi Election Outlook

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The moderate apparition Jamaioa labor Party, ted by Edward Ssoga, is favored to defeat Prime Hinieter nanley'e People'e Motional Party in the election tomorrow. Soaga would have greater eupport from both business and organised labor, but he etill would have difficulty restoring political and economic stability.

The most reliable poll taken last week showed Labor ahead inf tha inland'sariahes. It Indicated thattrong effort in theholda nore parliamentary seats than the urban centers where Han ley hae been makingcarry the election for the Labor Party by overercent of the popular vote and probably bywo-thlrda majority inmember House of Representatives. ^KM

Manley's aggressive campaign gives him an outside chance to win. There are enough uncommitted voters to torn the tide, although boldouta traditionally have split their votes fairly evenly between the two parties,

Manley's party also believes that it has gained by blaming Seaga for the recent surge of urban violence and probably will try to improve its chances further by using thugs to scars off opposition voters on election day. This stratsgy helped pad the vote for Hsnley6 but appears isss promising this year becsuse the Labor Party has built up its own street cadre and because the security forces now generally support Ssaga.

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year-oldtrong nationalist, is the candidate of the local private sector. Seaga is anrespected economic planner and manager, and his economic rscovsry program wouldore vigorous market economy, greater interaction with the OS market,etermined pursuit of Western investment, lie probably would continue Hanley's popular effort to restore rural programs that were neglected by previous Labor governments, pjpj

Seaga would take immediate steps to reschedule Jamaica's largely US-held foreign debt, now3 billion. Even though he would resume negotiations to restore credits from the international Monetary Fund, hs would try hard to ease some of the austeritythat he believes helped weaken Hanley's political position.

The Labor Party leader also would bargainwith Washington for better trade and aid He would reassure US bauxite campanies operating

in Jamaica but would hold the line on Hanley's efforts

to Increase Jamaican shares in all foreign holdings.

In foreign affairs, Seaga would be likely tobut not abandon Hanley's basic policy of Fiona lignmont, He would move closer to the US and away from what be sees as Hanley's excessive devotion to relations with Cuba and with tho Third World. tmM

Hanley's Reelection

If reelected, Henley probably would move toward the center ffl HHHbmbbbI to consolidate his domestican^toiCTcureiJescern aid. Be would try to reschedule tho national debt, resume negotiations with theMonetary rund, stake peace offerings to tho battered prlvato sector, and invito US Investors to begin or expand local operations. Hanley would portray himself crat who fresly oallsd and honestly faced an aarly open election and would increase his roquasts for assistance from traditional sources

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In the) long term, however, Man ley would have little chance of rallying the demoralized business community, stemming an increased exodus of professionals and skilled workers, and checking the resurgence of young radicals in his party. Unable to restore productive capacity, Manley would be driven toward Increasingly authoritarian and radical measures. The radicalization processwould be facilitated by the erosion of organised opposition in the country.

If Seaga wins, the Castro regime probably would hope that he still would support Cuba's incrsasinglysfforts to break out of the regional diplomatic isolation imposed nearly two decades sgo. 1^

Seaga would reduce but not eliminate Cuban influence. He has said publicly that ho would expel the Cubanwho has publicly maligned Seaga and tho Labor Party, but ho probably would maintain diplomatic relations with HavaiM. Seaga has indicated he would support tho continuation of Cuban humanitarian assistance to Jamaica, especially tho provision of desperately needed medical personnel in the countryside, bbbbb

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