Created: 12/13/1980

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tnat Uartau Pact military forces designated for

use againstre being maintainedtate of advanced preparation but not necessarily at full combat readiness,

Mobilization and fiald training activity sincehave put the ground forcesosture where they could be prepared to march into Poland in less thanours, even if some divisions have released their re-3orvlsts and returned to their garrisons. .AfffJB^sk.

We believe that the Soviets have selected thed higher commands for potential Intervention rolei

Some divisions in the

western USSR that had conductedmobilization anddu^na November had returned to garrisonarly December. The Soviets would need only aboutours to recall their reservists, and one additional day would be needed to concentrate these units entry into Poland. fflsmfaV

Church Appeals for

The Catholic Church's strongly worded appeal yester-day-for restraint by all Poles could help considerably to ensure calm during the potentially volatile two weeks ahead. Aafter the regularlymeeting ofthat the country's "very complex situation- makesany actions that endanger Poland's "freedom and statehood" and opposed tho abuse of "existing difficulties" for aims "alien tnnation's good."

The Bishops urgedto ensure that next week's commemorations ofh anniversary of the Baltic coast riots take placealm and seriousan injunction intended to apply both to the regime and to the populace. To ensure that ita appeal for calm hasimpact, the Bishops designated tomorroway of prayer for national unity and directedastoral Letter appealing ior calm be read at all services. mm*>

The Bishops' statement seems to reflect considerable fear within the Churchossibleoncern that events on the Baltic coast could get out of control. To help prevent the latter, the Church will send Cardinalprotege of Pope John Paulseveral other ranking clergymen to the ceremonyonument in Gdansk on Tuesday.

A Church spokesman aaid the statement had beenin part at "noisy and irresponsible" assertions by political dissidents. He cited as an example abyissident who has been advisinq Solidarity. mm)

Even implied public criticismhurch officialolitical dissident is highly unusual, if notand seems certain to anger some dissidents and perhaps some within Solidarity. Walesa, for one, hai continually stressed his willingness to "stand by" Kuron.

The Church's actions will be well receivedania regime that has been makingnot entirelyto convince Poles of the need for restraint. The Soviets, who have urged the Church tooderating role, will also be pleased. fatafassBBBsmmmmmmv

Although the Church's appeal increases the chances that events will go smoothly next week, it provides no guarantees. imilar appeal for calm by Cardinal Wyszynski in latethe Gdanskcriticized by segments of the populace as premature and unjustified. Some Poles apparently believe the Church leadership has been too willing to side with the regime, and this most recent statement could be greeted with reservations. MMMM

A variety of reports indicate that at laat week's sudden meeting of the Warsaw Pact leadership in Moscow, Kania received some more time to counter the threat to Poliah party rule from the unions and the dissidents. If these reports are accurate, as seems likely, then Moscow's perception of Kania's progress in reestablishing control in Poland will be crucial to its decision whether to introduce Soviet military forces into Poland in tbe near term. fasBmmmsmmmmvmmV

The Soviets probably recognize that their military preparations to intervene in Poland haveobering impact on the key Polish actors. The Church'sto urge calm and Solidarity's agreement,ecret meeting with government representativesecember, to take steps toonfrontation, are two of the more noteworthy examples. ftMsmV

Signs of an aggressive agitation-propaganda campaign in the Poliah military to enhance its politicalalso indicate sober aasessment by this critical or* ganization. Indeed, the relative domestic quiet that preceded the Moscow summit is continuing, p,

These developments have for the most part beenhowever, and the Soviets probably see noof any fundamental changes in the powerthe party and the unions that Moscow finds The unions are continuing to make politicalon the regime, moat recently for the formation ofcommittee to obtain the release of all solidarity continues to accuse thefalling to keep past agreements, and the farmersan independent union.

The party itself remains in ferment; no clear line has emerged from the Politburo changes, and there is no evidence that provincial leaders ere more willing to follow Warsaw's lead. Furthermore, the regime has not been tested since its capitulation last month to union demands for release of two prisoners. emssmV


The Soviets could see Tuesday's commemoration of0 riots on the Baltic coastrucial test both of Kania's ability to project the partyors.eadership role and of the workers* ability to act with restraint,. fSje/

They clearly recognize that the Kania regime has limited maneuverability in countering union and dissident demands withoutiolent or confrontational response from the workers. Moscow's increasing military preparations since the Moscow summitivid indicator of continued Soviet skepticism about the ability of the Polish regime to turn the situation around. effaV

East European Reaction

The East'-Germans, among Poland's harshest critics, have at least temporarily ceased their attacks, speakingentral Committee meeting on Thursday, Politburo member Mittag stressed East Berlin's "utmost concern" for events ir. Poland but also made it appear that East"fraternal assistance" would be limited toffs, industrial goods, and perhaps loans. fmm

Mittag said that East German leader Honecker informed tho Warsaw Pact leaders last week that East Germany has. given emergency economic aid to Polandard currency cost of0 million. The aid includes advanced deliveries of meat, grain, butter, and industrial goods as wellard currency credit ofillion on easy terms. easssV

The Bulgarians, who have been unusually reticent in commenting on events in Poland, on Thursday for the first time publicly expressed their conviction that the Polish people will do everything possible to resolve tho crisis in the interest of socialism and socialist unity. The statement by the Politburo avoided pointing an accusing finger at the Wost or anyone in Poland and, unlike similar statements by the Czechoslovak and East German parties, did not include the ominous references to "fraternal assistance' from Poland's Warsaw Pact allies.


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