Created: 11/12/1980

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POLAND: Crisis Defused for Time Being

Although tha rezi-c'a retreat cn Hcrday cn the issue ofSolidarity and the union's canjeltaticr. of strikes stated to stain today sain the Mediate crisis, rzeny ccnisnticus trcblerts have yet to be resolved, and the poas-lbiZiSyeriousrendna; in rHd-Zeotsrber She unions will review ike reaire's serfor-tsnst in carrying out the Gdansk asreestnts. *

The compromise agreement handed downupreme Court ruling is similar to the one the regime wasto accept last month. Solidarity will recognize the leading role of the party in an annex to its charter, which will contain the pertinent articles from the Gdansk agreements signed onugust as well as severalconven-tions of the international Labor Organization. 4SeV>

whether the government reversed itself at the last moment or was bluffing all along is not clear.* If iteversal, the question arises whether the Soviets agreed to the action; Moscow has not yet commented. If itluff to get the workers back on the job after the Court's action, the regime may have accomplished its purpose. 4seea*

Seasons for Retreat

In either case. Prime Minister Kania probablyhis regime might notound of strikes more severe than thosectober. He probablythat new strikes wouldbe only the first in series of union actions.

Kania would then be under increased pressurehardliners and the Soviets to use force. Onceor military became involved, the chancesand Soviet, intervention would havethus chose the course that would cause th*in the short

The regime probably believes it has bought time, but it may not be able to us* it effectively. The party and government bureaucracy are demoralizedand, especially at the lower levels, are ineffective, {flest

By contrast. Solidarity and the freely chosenorganizations that axe being establishedegitimacy the party and government have never* perty vill have toorking relationship with these new forces to have any chance of success in tackling Poland's serious economic and social problems,

Future Problems

A cooperative relationship will not come easily. Solidarity leader Walesa and other moderates in theeadership are willing to work for positive objectives, but this approach depends heavily on the party's behavior. Some party officials still believe that they must keep the union leaders on the defensive and make it difficult for union moderates to prevail. Last weekend's events have strengthened the belief of the more militant members of Solidarity that the government will make concessions only under duress. VsaV

It is not clear how well or quickly the new unions will be able to shift the attention of their members from pay increases to the need for greater productivity. Worker frustrations will increase as tho economic-situation deteriorates, and the new union leaders will not feelthey can ignore members' demands. (MMj.

Numerous issues could increase tensions during'the coming months. Media access for the new unions, the formulationew trade union law, censorship, and economic reform carry the seeds of future crises.

The planned union review in mid-December of whether the regime has complied with the Gdansk agreements could be crucial. Union leaders may threaten additional strikes IC they conclude that tho government is being dilatory seeking to watei down the agreements. flflb

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