VIEWS OF THE MINISUMMIT ON THE EVE OF PRESIDENT REAGAN'S VISIT TO CANADA

Created: 3/6/1981

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY NATIONAL FOREIGN ASSESSMENT CENTER

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VIEWS OF THEN THE EVE OF PRESIDENT REAGAN'S VISIT TO CANADA

Organisers of the minisuaait on North-South economic relatione, cheduled to begin anill meet onarch in Vienna and probably Mill agree -to postpone tne meetingt fall if this would assure US oarticioazi

Qthemiee,or a

.une meeting vill continue, even though lack oftne probable participants might force the cancellationmtnisummit at ths

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RET

As the host of the summit, Mexican Presidenthas already proposed some basic guidelines for Hehree day conference

une in Cancun, the resort island off the Yucatan coast. Delegations will be limited to aboutith only three participants frou each country at the conferencehead of state or government plus two advisor*. To miniinize press coverage, media representatives will be housedeparate building and allowed only brief picture taking sessions at the actual conference site. All statements to the press would be handledesignated spokesman. It is still unclear whether there wouldinal communique wrapping up the discussions.

Agenda

There is little agreement on the structure ofPortillo and Kreisky both favor anexchange of ideas with no preset agenda. Thererecognition, however, that the "seminar- muststructure. Kreisky favors discussion centeredissue summaries accompanied by positionnational delegation. The backgroundbe drawn up by personal representatives

of the host__ioverninent in consultation with the participating countries.

The Mexican Government has proposed that an agenda of eight oropics be drawn up with such items as 'How to assure petroleum supplies to non-petroleum developing countries Each item could be accompanied by several discussion options, which would not necessarily be given equal weight or time. That would be determined by the actual participants,

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Country Positionsi

In recent weeks the attitudes ofisunmit participants have become cleareri

MEXICOLopez Portillo remains fully committed to theummit aa the last chance toorth-South dialogue. He views the mlnisuimnit as the litmus teatountry's consnitment to international cooperation. He believes chat the need for the ralnlsumait ia greater now than ever, given the lack of progress in the UN Global Negotiations. He would be reluctant to postpone thefor fear of losing what littleremains, but would probablyall date if this would aasure US participation. /

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AUSTRIAKreisky, as co-chairman, is also committed to the minisumnit buthe meeting tn philosophical, nott- tic, terms. Much of his willingnesscept the co-chairman role is due f ersonal friendship with Willy ttmMXi whose independent commissionthe ninisummit concept. haa notreat deal of pe_.onal prestige on the success of the meeting and would probably be receptive to postponing the meeting. fffl

BelievesuVni summit without us participation is virtually unthinkable.ommitment to attend the meeting in any event, Sweden prefers to participatearefully papered conference thate US to participate fully, |

Kraisky has approached the Sovieton the USSR's participation, but has yet toormal reply. Moscow appears to be wholly uninterested and is waiting to see whether the US participates. Should both the US and China attend the meeting, the USSR probably would accept an invitation.

CHINAAlthough the Austrians have waited toeply from Moscow before approaching China, tha leadership ln Beijing already has informed Kreisky that it is disappointed that an irvitation has not yet been received. China would unhesitatingly participate in the mini-sunimit, regardless of US or Soviet attendance. WM

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OPECThese countries are generally apprehensive abo'it thc lainis-.umnit, but for differing

OTHER LOCsNo other LDC has been unequivocally enthusiastic about the mini airmail

Outlook:

US agreea

toesting in the fall, the organizers of the micl-summit will probably decide to postpone lt, although there would be some resentment by the LDCs. In reality, however, many of the organizera would welcome the extra time gained by the delay, given the poor preparations and lack of coraiwen: by some of the participants. all mini sum it would come after major conferences at which similar topics will be more thoroughly discussed, including the June conference on Economic Cooperation Among Developing Countries (ECDCI ln Caracas, the Ottawa Big Seven summit ln Jcly, and the UN's Conferenceon Least Developed Countries this September in Pariti '

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