Created: 3/14/1981

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible




This^fe^fMEMMMMtMMMUjMMgBjmM^ would be adequate toarsaw PactJ^ivasioirofPoland, but the combat-fore* for such an invasion are not

fewer tasks remain

to be accomplished before Warsaw Pact forcen could move into Poland. Several Soviet divisions in the western USSR have practiced mobilisation procedures in the past six months and could be expected to execute them more rapidly this time. Other units, such as the Sovietdivisions In the western USSR and the Soviet ground force divisions already stationed in Central Europe, would require little additional preparation.

The Soviets do not appear to be usingover for intervention in Poland, but they could take advantage of the exercise to prepare and direct an intervention if, in the Soviet view, events ln Poland warrant it. Holdingarge exercise ln Poland at this time also will reinforce Soviet warnings to Polish civil and-military author!tie* to begin reversing the loss of party control there. Press reports of theand the visibility of the field maneuvers ln Poland also will serve as an additional warning to Solidarity to moderate Its behavior, emese

Original document.

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