POLAND

Created: 2/10/1981

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

SITUATION REPORT

POLAND

selection of Defense Minister Jaruaelski ae Poland's neu Prime Ministereu regime commitment to order and

Party leader Kania probably hopes that theappointmentrofessional military man will be shock treatmentopulation that haa increasingly ignored government pleas and warnings. The party may feel thatove is necessary to show it is serious about imposing martial law, if necessary. fmmf

Kania may hope that Jaruxelski will command the respect of Poles who look to the Arrayationalwhich remains above petty politics. Jaruzelski* reputationoderate who has opposed the use of the armed forces against strikers may reinforce the belief of some Poles that the regime, while serious aboutcalm, is not Irrevocably committed to the use of force.

The appointment of Jaruzelski was probablyood political move for Kania and demonstrates hisclout. The former Prime Minister had become seriously discredited, and Jaruselski ls probably one of Kania's few close associates on the Politburo. The two have worked together for atecade, eee.

Given the symbolism of the change. Solidarityignore thie move as easily as it has previouschanges. Tho union still seems unlikely, however, to back down dramatically from pressing what it considers justified.grievances, same)

Soviet Reaction

Moscow endorsed Jaruzelski's appointment by reporting the move within the hour, fas*

t in ued

ata

/St*

The Poles almost certainly obtained Moscow's prior approval, and may have discussed the matter with Soviet Defense Minister Ustinov in person.

The appointment is likely Lo buy Kania more time with the Kremlin. The- Soviets undoubtedly view tha law and order implications of the appointmenttep in the rightthey have been urging on Warsaw. How much time Kania haa actually bought, however,.will depend upon the Polish party's ability to translate the lymboU'iin into concrete actions that stoat unrest? fmb

arsh Words w

The main speeches at the one-day Central Committee plenum yesterday provided additional aigns that, the regime intends toore aggressive line toward Solidarity. Politburo members flarcikowski and Grabski leveled the harshest criticisms yet at dissidents and other "extremijBfcs" in Solidarity. They accused by name three prominent dissident leaders of being "anti-Communists" who seek to discredit the party, destabilize Poland, and weaken its alliances. qm)

The speakers also took tough stands on issuerunder negotiation with Solidarity. Theythat Rural Solidarity would notregistered at the meeting, of the Supreme Court today and labeled as "unacceptable" Solidarity's demands for removalofficials and for public use of special government buildings, fl

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