POLAND: BEYOND THE CONGRESS

Created: 7/23/1981

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

SPECIAL ANALYSIS

TOLAND: Beyond the Conaress

The Poliah Communist Party emerged from ita turbulent aongraaatrengthened firatredominantly newreater eenae of unity,enewed commitment to moderation. Nevertheless, itonly marginally better prepared to deal with the many problems that have been held in abeyance for several months.

The congress helped to narrow the breach between the rank and file and the central leadership. The newand Central Committee will have significantly more credibility with the party's grass roots because of the more democratic procedures evident at the congress and because the new leadership includes large numbers of local activists. The congress also helped to shiftto the future by meeting the demand that pasteaders be severely punished for their mistakes.

The congress, however, disrupted traditional power relationships, giving naw impetus to the diffusion of power already under way. The new Central Committee willore aggressive body, although it will also be moro disorganized and provincial. It can cauae trouble for the party leadership but may have difficulty in assarting its authority, earns*

A party secretariat staffs by full-timeseems likely to have an advantageolitburo that is made up of many members who must journey tofor its meetings. Key provincial partyexcluded from the nationalbe still more inclined to go their own way. The periodic meetings between the party first secretary and provincial leaders thus become more important for influencing policy.

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The party haa done little over the past year todistrust of its intentions. Moat Poles will wait for clear evidence that the new party leadership la more qualified and willing to share pow*r. Come nonpartyalready are claiming that the congress was manipulated by the apparat more than is shown by the public record. mW

Many unresolved issues must be addressed. Into handling local and regional issues, the party must gain broad support for legislation on censorship, worker self-management, trade unions, and numerousmeasures, including steep increases in retail prices. It must also devise and win agreement for comprehensive plans that would pull the economy out of its crisis. WW

Solidarity leaders may not beood toon such issues. Prior to the congress, union moderates sought to aid party moderates by agreeing to defer consideration of controveraial Issues, and pressures will now be great, particularly from regional chapters, to test the new party leadership. Some union activiats, moreover, may press hard on the issues to win supportSolidarity's national congress begins in early September.

There ar* few indications of how the new partywill react to the renewed union demands, even though one Solidarity member was chosen for the Politburo andore sit inember Central Committee. Kania and Premier Jaruzelski have aimed some tough language at Solidarity. They might argue within the leadership that the regime must stand firm in order to demonstrate to the union and to Moscow that the* new "democratic" procedures do not reflect weakness. MM}

Prospects areengthy period of intensemaneuvering punctuated by high tensions andIf moderates on both sides are able to prevail, the poles will still have difficulty achieving compromises.

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Soviet Views

Moscow is attempting to put the best possible face on the congress in an apparent effort to develop arelationship and some degree of influence with the newly elected officials. The Soviets, however, areto be concerned about the influx of so many unknown individuals into positions of responsibility ana about the resulting uncertainties in Polish policy. They are undoubtedly uneasy about the precedents set by themethods of the congress ln choosing new party leaders and by some of the proposed changes in the Polish party statutes. MM

The Soviets will continue to press the Polishto limit further changes and eventually to cancel some of them. The Soviets stressed in their greeting to the Polish leadership on Tuesday that the party must now "resolutely rebuff anarchy andnd they seem likely to maintain judicious contacts with' Polish hardliners to support their efforts to this end.

Original document.

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