j^ttial
AL DfTFLTJCEMCC AGENCYDSQS
National Foreign Asw-ament Center
MEMORANDUM FORi AmbesMdor Charles Metssner
Spaclal Negotiator Tor Economic Affairs Department of State
Country Papers for Caneun Summit
Attached are flnbhed copies of two projects you asked us to do for the brleflmr book being prepared for Secretary Haftr* participation Ine-ust Caneun preparatory meetings. The projects aret
y
You hedreeel Group, fj.
able showlnr LDC pctrohem Imports end exports, hlghllphtlny the Caneun attendees.
earBcr Crafts ef thesee by yoer Caneon
As Stated'
n
CONFIDENTIAL
Tolltl-.Tl aw* EconomicUIng
'Ai'-irU't normally eelm political environment hasaer tmnnlon*eeMnvolving corruption associated with lha constructionnewspltal has resetted In an nneonwmnInttrpartv"tenth* of Investigations noboHv responsibility 'or the fiasco,
although Krclsky's heir apparent haa been foreed te resign, creating -e- nne-rta Int ies ahoat an eventual sneeesser. Moreover, the Austrian economy Is goingare period of trouMe that threatens th*v close reoperation hetwoen the various sectors of Austrian toeletv. Despite these dcvelopmnntt, whicher-ed to Increase distrust of political Msnreii Kretsky's personal popularity remains largely unshaken.
Global View
mall neutral country, Austria realises that Its ahllltv to maneuver or the Internattonal stage la constrained he the status of East-West relations at in* particularAustria, nonetheless, hasn aetlve foreign oollev, guided largely by Krelskv himself, who Is anxious te enhance his onn International reputation. Thef detente In Eurnp-permlltad Krelskv to foens his efferta on Third World problems,mportantly thefllet. Woreevents have encouraged him te becomenvolved In East-West quest Ions sweh as arms -ontrol efforts between tha superpowers. He has repeatedly erltlelsed what be pereelves ai the DSollev ofhjeh he maintains Is ensottllng for East-West relations. He argues that It Is Inappropriate for dealing with Inevitable Third World political change, particularly In plaees like El Salvador.
Evpactallona for
As an erlglnn) eo-sponsor of the Summit, Kreisky hasertain amount of personal prestige en lta oateome. Krelakv'a hope for any meaningful reselts prohabiy has been dampened bv histhat the eennemle slowdown In the Industrial state* makes mn|or eoneesslons extremely unlikely. His pessimism Is probahlvoreover, h* hlan re "te convince the Sov let/ Union to attend. Uncer the elrenmttaneen, Krelskv sees the Surrr.lt largely as an opportunity tn enhance hla reputation andseful forum for exehanclnr views.
Positions on Specific laanca
Austrian positions on specific Issues have bees slow to emerge durlnrj the plannlrc pMse of |h0 Caneun Snrnnl t, prehn*lr heeanse of Krelskv'a orenemoat Ion with getting the participants to the table.
|i
NOTTO FOREICW AtIONALS
ave no: ro consider.
Rrelskv prefer* a
June that no position ptpers hid'Vropirc with KrelsVv's view that Cancan thotilt* 1 eeenda andrepared documentation to
rree-wheel tntr dimension, net
excluding the possibility of confrontation* oa aome Issues.
the United States -or ether Ineastrlal
Krelskv hlnaelf Wimmm Horth-Soulh Isseeshilosophical perspective ol Jettle* and eoeltv, bet he haa few pracRMtle tolvtlons t* e'fer. Will* eonmltte* touccessful Surmlthowever It nwv eome to be defined he will eenfimte to he moreith hla personal role than with the substance of dlseussloas. In general. rJvaa hla philosophicalrominent rele la the Socialist International, he la likely to reeoejilie US eoaeernsthe Important role or the private sector In LDCwhile expressympathy ror LDC appeals for changes- In-International InMltuttnae to faellltat* reveeree transfers. He Isowever, te seek toeader la adveeetlne; solatloes, espeelallvmight pat la* aneh dlstenee betweea Aastrla countries.
1
* A
NOTTO
SWU/PJ1
a* Eeonomlr SMtlng
Sweden's Prlmt Ula iter, Therbjorn Filldli, will arrive al CnneonewMire llkelv lo he Tar more oppoeeanled wllh Sweden's domestic eeonomie difficulties than with. North-Sooth ItlttM, Rising nnemolownent, persistent Inflation,luggish eeonomv have made life difficult for hla Center-liberal coalition government, whleh has pledged to rednce sharpie the growth of the pablle sector. Verv modest austerltv measures were passed last 'winter. Tn* Swedes mTr. braeedear of sero eeonomie growth.
Thw seriousness oT Sweden's economic problems has been compoundedense of deadlock la the domestic polllleal arena. Although the present twn-partv coalition government has the backing of lesshird or the Swedish parliament, it has thus Tar been able to eoont en Conservative support In giverecarious one-vole mnjerltv on kev eeonomie legislation. The weak parilanvntarv base or the present coalition, however, raises doubts about Its long-term prospects and restricts Its abllitv to develop and carry through consistent, long-term strategies for dealing with the current erlsla. Eaeh passing month aopsari to lend new weight le the argument of the Social Demoeratle oppositionocial Democratic government Is the ealv ona capable efarflelentlv broad degree of acceptance for the tough measures needed to overeeme Sweden'sriealtles. With electionsearhe governing parties are likely to be Inereatlnglv attentive to possible opportunities for cooperation with Olo' Palme's resurgent Social Democrats In the Interest or better positioning themselvesower broker role la the event thet no partvar 1lamentarv matorltv.
Global View
Sweden combines what erten appears to be moralistic rhetoric with eeonomie Interest In lis approach lo Rorelations. Sweden ahares the generalrnropean view or North-South relation, that aiding the development orSouth will contribute to the stability or manv pelltleallv volatiler>at seta Stockholm apart from most of Its West European neighborsillingness lo hue* wo Its rhetoric with monev, even during periods or domestic eeonomie dlfflenliv. Ironically, most ef the money to be provided nnder Swedish supported proposals would come from larger eonntrles such as the US. Last vear Swedish official assistance amounteds perrrnl ofheaverageM percent. Another differenceeden and some olher West European nations Is SloekhAlm'a refusal to view Korth-Senth Issues In gnat-Westie supporting program In Vietnam, Sweden hasento efforts le ease the plight ef refugees from Afghanistan.
1
KM jfATlOHAU
the "Pporled nieOdl Kerotlatlena In
A Of
Posltlc.cn or, Specific
Issues. Stockholm wants International reinforced and favors ereatlon of In developing countries for the rne ea set_ a continued need far
is
liaprovernents In the that -Vrri-r Indastrlel tradlnr policies es their measures to promote In trade barriers. Tnns.
"Pports LDC dcnerds svstem or preferences but alto Insists countries be prepared to adept liberal
SSrriSultV.V Stoe"soln believe-
contributor tc the
been the largest International Trrde Center.
ONCTAD/CATT En
* " "PP'^nt reduction Sweden for years has
mmmimm
humnn rightswhleh are accused ef
mimmmi
motoREirayKTIOSAIj
Hi-fi .Wltr
Long ti leading proponent of tb* Korth-Sewthlgeria orlglnallv preeose* the Idea ef global negotiations four vears ago. President Bendfedld came to power Ind li*ate, hat Is steadllv strengthenlnc hla hold on the regime. He It now looking; for rays to burnish Algeria's International Inrtgeonr preoeeupatloemestlelgiers that will be eager teeading role In deliberations at Caneun.
Notwithstanding Algeria's ambition* plans teodern Indnstrlallsed nation, the eosntrv willependant upon exports of Its hydrocarbon resources for at least the uextears. Gssas liquids, however, will slowlv replae* ell as the am)ot source ef revenue la the year* ahead. Algeria hasper capita CNP of SJ.ioc and the eeonemvlast year. Bendjedid'* five-year development planrientation toward decentralisation df the eeonenw, an Increased role fer th* private stetor. Improved avallabllltv of consumer good* an* hooslna.reater Importance fer agriculture. Despite these ambitious goals and substantial government Invtstment, enlv modeat gains Instandard ef living or atruetural economic change eaa be expected ever the next teveral years.
Algiers believes that tb* economic Interests ef the Industrialised countries and those ef the davele-ping eountrlea are fundamentally opposed. Algeria seeks to reorder th* entire International power structure, which It believes Isy the Industrialised eountrlea te esplolt th* developing world.l*vea that th* developing eountrlea aetlng together can aebl*v*ajor ehanget by using their control of natural resources te gain concessions. Algeria regards OPECmodal fer coordinate* aetlen on ether Important commodities. KvpcotatIons for Cnnnnn
President Bendjedid has defined th* key lasu* at Canenn as stearin* US willingness to premot* progress en gtohal talks. Algeria Iteeting In lat* Jul* of LPC foreign ministers who rill attend the raneunaterv meeting telrategv. The Algerians are In faver ef an agenda thai will feena pressure on th* us. Thev prebahlv will give prlerltv ta process launching th* Globalather than toherever, heeaas* Algeria prefers net tnents concrete Issue* in suchrestricted forum.
la the orlnelr-M
Algeria asserts
"Safe1-.
FOREIGN WtTHMMA
to global negotiations but, at th. tmw*rltl.lt-.
AlrcrU Mr.t InV.Vd .'i'" '.i I Cneun summit at a wa* of booili-.
Positions ot. Specific issue.
Tr*rtt " Algeria mm th* developing world*, control of
t;i
d*,ei,don pMee "rt "W" PoHelea br both
'li!"! it Will eaatlaaiT to
support ellowerful lever In International nerotla(lenV anri
'alS^aTlH.:
^
",n
talks became of their numerical superior
rte"ffitheir preoccupation with th* UB position, tho Algerians will probahlv seek bilateral, with its
ton'settlt.de toward the Xolth-South dialogue and global talks In particular. The0 providesopperte.lty for discussion of Important HorthAfrleJn seeurlt'yspecially Libra's newnitiative, nnd theion ofeturn SI Sahara that Moroee.n King proposed at theI
BATOLADESH
Political.and Eeoromlo Setting
.The SO May assassination of President Klear Rahman hat added the prospect of polltlea! Instability te Bangladesh's already staggering eeonomie problems. The relative political ealm that the country enjoyed during Zla's six rears In office allowed 'the President to focus his considerable energies en ambitions developmentome of which have been moderntelv successful. Without Zla's driving foree, manv of these programs will probably be shunted aside, nt least temporarily, as the Interim government becomes Increasingly preoccupied with maintaining order to ensure apeaceful, constitutional transfer oflthough the succession Is proceeding smoothly, acting President About Setter Is both old and Inflrmt his death before the September presidential eleetIons woi>ld. remtft* therleadlnf-'candidate and could result In sufficient political turmoil toilitary takeover.
The prospeet for orderly'economic development also hashv the assassination of President Zla. Bangladesh has often been cited as,for the problems faced hy-the-least er capita GM? of SMS. It isin virtually all domestic resources save natural gasland. Moreover, the population IsIIv and will doable In Sft veers. The combination ofpopulationimited resueree base has causedGovernment to relv en external assistanceercent of Its development budget. Most ofIs directed at the agricultural sector, fromthnnercent of the population earns Its living,representsercent of
Olor.nl View
t'B-nKlodesheading spokesmaneast developed countriesnd the current leadership will seek assurances that the eonntrv continues to eelov international respect nnd support. government will maintain Bangladesh's traditional support for the North-South dialogue,and the establishmentew International Economic
or
Expectations for Cancun,
Bangladesh sees the Can eon Summit as part of an ongoing proeest of, global negotiations. THeee hopes that Cnneun may he the firstegular scries of high-level consultations on International eeonomie' matter*. Officials do not expect the meeting toornvtl agenda nor do Ihcv. feel It will lead te netiinl decisions or plnns of action. Tmeea't repret*ntntIve wlII follow thcT line en North-South Issues al Cancun
FOnElfB* KAjtrORALS
hot fill probable bo less outspoken than Tin on Bangladesh toy fear that aid flows will decrease inofa*sa-*lnatlon, particularly fromArab) sources. Bangladesh Is one of the twomeeting and probably will stress theof the poorest countries and their endemic inabilitybasle human
Pot It Ions-on Specific
onsistent and vocal supporter of the Brandt Commission reeommenrfat Iots . Dacca stresses the mutuality of Interests Involved in building up the LOCs * technological and resources base. Bangladesh would like toatisfactorybetween population and naturaln. nternational strategy on energv, removal of tariff barriers, and the establishment of an International
Pood andhe representatives will supportot7 that emphasize the transferand unterlal resources*_the_estnbllshrnent efbasis for world food seeurltv through rood aid and reserves, and the Implementation of countryagricultural '
or raw and processed agricultural eorrnoditles and favors programs that will stabilise and expand earnings of these eotrmodltles. Bangladesh Is thi argest expnrof Jute and prime mover for aa International juie urganizatIon.
h* UJfhad publicly called on OPEC nations to decrease the prlee of oil nnd efrer concessional aid
nSdVS?gone from the
ll hT: th,lpoutspokenness
e f offending current or potential .id donors while the country is unsettled.
o atreaTtbi unique problems'orOCs that must Import food and reeulre
"JacUIeJI* * ow absorptive
ie Bangladeshis are likely te seekngs to reassure continued eeonomle and politicalrecent political
NOT REt. FOREIGN
Political and Fccwmle SMtlng
modest liberalization program begun andtr Frneato Geltel to tvolve- more open and
ruapoaslvt political tvatem for Rratll It continuing andtr the new.'o'o Flgntlrafe. Since Flgoelredo't Inauguration In MsrehIbert11zatInn has gained momentum and will reach an Important political and psychological milestone with the eongrttslonal, Kate, and irunlelpa! elections scheduled for Novemberevertheless, political and economicwill remain highly centralized and tht military willrominent, but Ittt vltlble, political fore* through the mld-mtOt.
Brazil's "economichich brought per capita Income00t becoming more difficult te tutlaln. Although real ONP growthercent Ittt "tar. Inflation nowercent, the current teceunt deficit" hovtrtarge dtbt service burden ahterbt tubttantlal financial resources, nnd Investor confidenceNP growth could fallpercent In IM1 If the government'a program to control Inflation and correct the country's balance of payments dtflelt, Inaugurtted last November, It effectively Implemented. Brtall It alto- tht Itrgttt ell Importer In the Third world, and ellccount for It percent of lta total oil consumption. .
fllohsl View
BraiM Identifies with the Third World and support! LDC positions on North-South Issnet when thev do not eenfllet with lta brotder Inttretta. Brazil define Itt foreign pollov aa "rttpontlblehlt feature! minimal political Involvement ln global Ittuet, coupledthe energetic pursuitBrasll't economic Interests, regardless of the Meologr of the trading partner. The principal faetort governing thlt policy are thtw dependence en Middle Eatt petrelem and en eztarnal markets, technology, and financing to _tconomle development,
ta< 'ons for Caneun
Is i- Brazlllant will come to Caneun with veryconcerns that they hop* will form the betla for riguelrede hat ezpretted growing
dltlllntlnn with the North-South dlalogne, wMeh he hollevea haa achieved little pregrett after mora than two decadet of dltcnttlon. Brazil loout te the United Stntet te provide leadership In the dialogue nnd bellevet President Fleagan't tetlve participation atIt essentialnrthwMI* airing or North-South concern. Bated ee patl performance, Brazil will be Inellned not te take the lead In Introducing anv topics, allowing Instead Uezleo, thc US, and otuert to ttt the tone ef the
CKMfjfemAf, ROT RDfMMm.r. to FORRirM lifriOYAI.S
with
"orTO
CHINA
Since the death of Iko Zedong inChina's lenders have strugc/lcd among themselves to secure succession arrenr;rmonts that will brine stability to Chinese political life. Major progress has been mde on this score, although It has sometimes been halting and subject to sharp conflict. Most recently, Dene Xiaoping and his allies won an important victory over rivals who lake a more orthodox Ideological approach lo politics and the economy thon do Deng's reformers. ev move,rotege of Yaobanr;, assumed the Party chairmanship In June, displacing llua Guofcng.
China Is proud of Its self-rclfane*, despite Its outwerd rcaeh for Western technical and economic assistance Jnwo years. It believes that Third Km Id countries should become' more self-reliant In order to reduce the dominance or thc Industrialized nations In tho world economic order.
China's economices-ar*g* part due te attempts to slow down *nd "readjust" thc economy. Its economic planners want to reduce Investment, Inerea-se eonsurrpt Ion,hlft thc pattern of Industrial growth and Investment toward" agriculture, light industry, and rnerwv. The economyercent last year, but slower growth, inflation, unemployment, and Inereaslnglv serious energy shortages will test the Chinese leadershipl.
Global View
Although China Is more aed than si developing countrlct. It Is decades behind thc advanecd nations. It Identifies with tho large number of Third World nations that have struggled to escape the political and economic domination of thc Industrialized nations. To enable Third World countries to become more self-reliant, Beijing believes the Third World-must receive more open-handed assistance from thc developed nations, and that the international economic svstemrwst be remodeled t! provide gneatcr benefits to Third World producers of raw material* and light Industrial goods. Bcllln- thus sssoclMts Itself with the dcminds of Ihe less developed countries for glohnl negotiationsnew international economic order."
The Chinese, however, are concerned that confrontation between the industrialized end developing nations over economic Issues provides the Soviet Union with political opportunities. Even though It Is critical of I'S nnd Western policies, eeks to avoid dlsereditin- the I'S among Third World leaders sdVl might otherwise allv themselves more with ag therefore-. Is llkelv to emereeoice of moderntien. vrRinp the Industrial!zed'ns11ons to cvtke greater concessions and
FOREIGN yflOKALS
in exploiting IM
EKPfelnHon, fof Cawem.
Position* en Sp.elf|e
f
Wl .trenrthVnlnr It
eonrrndllles and
eerr.et system of iHe
developed countries. le the les.
give
wants the developed aH**! *
developed least
*
NOTMfF. TOALS
GOTAftA
r*OT>estlc Polew
President Porheatthrew* pelltleelhe* dominated Guyanese poll lies alnee he and MtPeople's Rational Part*power frontIndian People't Progressive Partvclaims to etpeuse an orthodox soeltlltt Ideology,are better deterlbed aa opportuntat leal It leftist.maior opposition partlet ire further te the left enspectrum than Burnhtm, and are anaMe to challenge political hold over the government
Intimidates the oppositionee, through the denial ef newsprint' for their publleatlons, eoeptlen, end, more sehtlv, bv Infiltrating :thelr rinks to maintain elose servellltnee oT their actlvltlet. Burnham retains tha trappingsemocracy elected ofriclaltall legltlntareet haa blatantly rigged the balloting In national elections.
Despite the continued poor porformnee oflargely state owned economy Ints structure and managemc seem nnllkelv to be changed much. If at all.eal GNP declined slightly list yeir and CKP pera- Mfgk oil Import prices and relatively stagnant production of bauxiti, sugar, and rlee will contribute to farther deterioration In IsSl. Even though the government has acceded to sneh IMF reqalrementa as devaluation and budgetary belt-tightening, these limited ttepe will be latefMelent te achieve eeonomie stability. The government still teems to belI eve*that Incentive programs, exhortatlent to the workers te produce, ad hoe and piecemeal fiscal and monetary policies, and massive capital Inflows from somewhere will bring about economic Improvement
G}obnl PcrspcctIves
Guyanawmber of th* Koe.-ligned Movement, Identifies eloselv with ether socialist nations, and takeshard-line Third World stance on political and eeonomie Itsnes. Barnham has attempted to cultivate strong ties with the red lent Arab stales with the Intention of seeerlng funds to help Cuvana out of Its economic mire. Thus, for Instance, he stridently opposes prn-Israel initiatives In International forms. Despite hit racist policieso-Guvnncseamller percentage ef the pepalntlo*ndo-Cuvsnese. but thev dominate thene hat taken strong stands againstAfrle* and apartheid *nd maintains clot* tlea with the blaek African atatei. Burnham considersl*rla the English-speaking Caribbean, but It ttrongly criticised bv mostregional leaden.
Despite Bttrnham't Marxist rhetorle aid radlcel tl*t, he has found lhat the social lit countries do not com* forth with
CTJrfFIJ^AI.--
NOTo FOREIGN yriONALS
substantial emounta of omittance and periodically courtt Iht West for alri and Investment. Expectations for
Although Ouvana hat not yet formulated lta positions for either the August or October meetings at Caneun, It lllcelv will foeus on issues of development asslstanet, monetnrv and flteal matters, energy nnd trade. Guyana can be expected to esponte at least tome Group of T? potltlons on eeonomle Issutt. There are indention* t'.at it looks upon the Cnncim Siirmil t 11eans ot enga-lng In a eonstruetlve multilateral dlalogut and will therefore adopt a falrlv moderate stance. Guvana contldtrt the preparatory talks tor the now-suspended global negotiations tc be verv Important and hopes that those negotiations can resume after the- Caneun Summit. It Is alto possible, however, that Pretldcnt Burnhom't despair over the laek or eonerete, potltlve retultt will make him choose a more radical tpproaeh to maintain hit credibility with radi*al Third World leaders. .
Positions on Specific Issues
ajor bauxite producer, will likely alto topport commodity arrtngemcntsroducer! or between producer! tnd consumers that would guarantee export earnings.
Globaluyana Itajor participantdiscussions, and generally tides with thaLDCs, which advocate sweeping reform ef the '. '. .
Otberuyana Is tmbrolledorder dltpnte with Venesusla, which el.ims about five-eighths of Guyana's territory. The dispute recently hatighly public and cmot onal Issue with both countrlet. In developing it. policy for the Swrmit Cuyana certainly will faetor In how the petition. It adepts could ef'eet Its territorial dl.pute, even though It will probably not formally bring the tquabble mw at th. Bureau.
rone
I till A
Political nnft Economic setting
" trlimphal return as Prime Minister
milhats
inlldnllng hern the atntes as well at at the national level, she
rfU,hrf, PfOC,ra n.M eeVaomv
relieve agrarian llseontent, or eeol eemn-tn.1 neaalnam BtJ
never!Veen"Ji fragmented oppo..tlen eannotl.hfee.
Widespread pov.rtv leave, one-third of the over Til"IT!lit-population rn.lnoarl.hed. Ind.sirv raBMlnT aSiaa Sill?
Qlobal View
with Uo.cow, India', prlnelpal trading partner, ara Ihe f, ed si.ies, tfeatern Pnrope, and Japan. Hew Delhi It lied llrhtw
financial Institutions throve*nea will,orldha Internald. .ndoreign bank.. India will eontln.e la leak tewd the We.i tl,
Expectations far Cancun
India', maior objective at Cancan la le .ircncthea It. irnl.hcd Imefe ef le.der.hlp In the Creep ef ft Therefore. H
ure. Tadln, which once enceorared the formationne(ot Inline bloca I. therld, haahv the polItIclxat(en of the Nnrth-Sn.thhope, that th. Cancun meeting will be usef.l. Mre.P'Wat.ly .tressed to Pre.ldentth. constructive""thatooperation between India andth..ISe Surnnli proceed Ine to
tmlted State. and other
nduatrl.lLed eountrle. de not recognise the political
P-rUefpant, can . M
lastltetlons and In.lead
focus eeonomie problems. Including those thai cm be
tackledproduction and reso.rce
Position, efue.
ndia It concerned about growing protectionism la the
hut the need for external financing
V'V'f' lB* mnlMlrfie.. f prl""which It sees a. too
flxmaela. no
'U
ae^Sff *
FORZtG* rfriaxyj
with Moscow, India's principal trading partners ar* th* United Stales, Western Europe, and Japan. New Delhi is lied tightly ta Western financial Institutions through Its dealing*t'orld Dank, the International Monetary Fund, and private foreign banks. India will continue to look toward the Weit for technology and know-how, which It considers superior te that offered Hy the Eastern hloe.
Especial Ion* for Caneun
India's major objective at Caneun Is le atrengtheeImage of leadership In the Groupherefore,likely to eschew confrontational taetlcs that could riskfailure. India, which once eneouraged the formationnegotiating blocs In the Third world, hashv theite 1len of the North-Southhones that the Cancnn meeting will be useful. Mrs.privately stressed to President Reagt- the constructiveUS can plav and that elese cooperation between India andwould be more productive than leaving the Summit proceeding
India believes that the United States and other Industrialised countries de ret recognise the political Importance attached te tht North-South dialogue by develop lag countries. New Delhi bellevta that Caneun parllelpanlt can avoM discussing the dettllt ef Inttrnatlenal Institutions aad Inttttd foeut upon globtl economic problems, Including those that evn be taekltd by Increased production end retouree tranaftra.
Positions ef Specific issues
ndia It concerned tbout growing prettetlonlsra la the developed countrlet against Tt,ird World Industrial esperta such as aletl products and textiles.
ndia has emphasised the need for external financing hut favors Increased multilateral lending with few condition* Instead of bilateral or private Investment, which It sees as too manipulative. It favors Increased development financing on concessional terms.
, Otobal Negotiations - India will be pushing for the weening
of global negotiations.
International Monetaryndia ma* -aat te bring up restructuring of the International monetary syateau
Otherndia will went te dlscnas resource and technology transfer. Increased International feed security, an* the Cocrnon Fund.
NOT KKiKX&'to FOREICK JifriCWALS
IVORT COAST Political nndrig
Ivor* Coast has been led since Independence from Franee tn HSO'hv President Felixounder and leader of Iho country's only polltleal partv. Houphouet's moderate and prnemstle pollele* haveombination or polltleal stability and econorale prosperity unparalleled In the region. His foreign pollev Is pro-Western and he generally supports US positions In International forums. Ivor* Coast believes that the US must oppose Soviet expansionism, especially In Africa. Houphouct was reelected to another five-year term laat vear.
rtouphouet, unlike manv of his neighbors, has used Western free-market development strategies with spectacular resells unmatched by any other black African nation. Ivorv Coast is the
world's leading producer of cocoa and ranks coffee
production. Ivorv% the highest per capita) and the least-skewed Income distribution sub-Saharan Africa. Tha country currently has some serious economic problems, however, beeanse very low world-coco* prices have reduced export revennes. The IMP has designed an auaterllv program to try to bring the burgeoning Intereatteaal payments deficitas well as Ahldlan's government spending spreeaek In line. Th* long-term outlook lss Ivory Coaat will be an oiln the mld-lMOs.
Global View
Ivory Coast probably basore western oriented point of view than most other African LDTa. While th* Ivorv Coast's economy Is based oe fre*-market pMlo*ophy, Its foreign pollev Initiatives In th* North-South dialogue have focused on Ihe one Issue that most directly effects the country's prlees for Its prima agricultural exports.' It* IUM. Ivnrv Const | of Its time and diplomatic energy tonsneeessful effort to organise eoeoa prodne*r*artel te ensure atabl* and, la Ivor Ian eves, * fair price for cocoa, Ivorv Coast's efforts flowed from Its Interests not onlv as a pro-Western produeer of basic agricultural conrnodltles but also from Houphouet's world view, which Interlinks North-South and East-West Issues. Houphouct has repeatedly said that the greatest danger te the West la the Th|rfj World Is net direct mililnry intervention by comnunlst steles, hat rather Ihe failure of lhe West to do enough to reduce Ihe eeonomie mls*rv thai predisposes peopl* to try eomvanlim In detperatl**. Insteadid, Ivorv Coast wants what It considers remunerative prices for Ita agricultural product*.
FOREICW jpFlOHALS ExpectstOP Cuncun
tne Cancer, meeting ..
mTinl nrr^ economich" t" ,OE^? Participants, especially the US. Houphouet
Positions or. Specific
r
flOWFjAriAL
ICO
rot III.-al an* Feonnmlc Setting
With leuear until the presidential electionsthc focus of Mexican politics Is on thc selection ofng party's candidate. President Josu Upex Portillo hasIleal discontent well within the established systemmeasures such as electoral reform.pathy and the regime faces potentially
das abl.lalng economicotwithstanding these challenges, which couldas economic growth slackens, the
short and Intermediate rang* threat to regime stabilityw.
ft compounding Mexico's mounting and
erious financial trouhles. Evan If Lopeaprice adjustments needed toI, the current account deficit this veernearly Sio billion. Although reduced oil earning* arcfactor, an overheated economy and rmInly responsible for the site of the
deficit. Ust year real CNP grewercent. Given the likelihoodontinued slack oilexico CItv will have
alo- Import demand.
Accomplishing this, howev.r, will almost certainly require of erenomle austerlt* crh.p. . Xs
consist mainly of raw materials and eapltal
Global View
l"Mbe?I! no*leader, of the
Third World In North-South discussions. Although Mexicoleadership, It hat been somewhat hamstrung by Itswhether to Wadhird World orglobalshares the fruttrttlen ef the Group of TT over th* lackIn launching the Global Negotiations and at thtof th* North-South
lSlfi!,'ShitenergyrV.he Group ofnd theeheme detllng with exploitation or energy resources, national energy plans, assistance for oil-Import Ing UTS, transfer of energv teeh.Mogv and th* creation of an Interna,nergy Institute.
Expectations for Caneun
lueu,twill be teTeTe^io".? nf?^r ideas with no hepollnllons. Mexico hat circulated informalfl-pa-o -Trramerork for niseuatlnnt" that outlines the ma lor
ioieo,.wJnl'"Mfur development, hu,
which also tuggetit corrective measures i'.t eehe Group ef r?
MOTO
mnals
demands.Lopes Portlllo Itkelv will be able to resist pressures from more radical participants, leeh es Algeria,igid agenda and more formal discissions. Hehe October meeting will give Impetus lo the North-South dialogue. Mrenethrn Mexico's.orld leader, and endoTae the launching of thc Global Negotlattonx.
Positions on Specific Mimm
f Mia highv oa Ihe
trattflei -ItMa national development
exico has been active in promoting the need for trade preferences and Increasing foreign Investment In LOT..
opes Porllll* will want to have his world energy plan at least dlseussed and preferably endorsed.
Global exleo would like leeanltmenl
NOT KFi.rjMm.F. TO
ranz igwA*tiokals
HIGEXIA
Pol It lira I and F'nnomlf SfHln;
-Nigeria's twenty-one month old civilian governmentcurrently facing several tests Itt strength, hotn politically and economically. On ihe InternaIlontI front, Ihe longstanding horder dlapute wllh Cameroonhettf* ape In recent raontht and President Shtgtrl It under Intense domestic pressure to net forcibly. He haa also been faeed reeentlv with rioting In two northern ttates, whleh hat tteemcd from political rivalries, Wllh loeal tnd general elections schedulednow and IMS, more tach Incidents can" be expected. Shagarl mav risk being the victimllltarv conp or beingat the ruling party's pretldentlal candidate for1 elections If ha cannot prove hit ebllllv to mora effectively manage Nigeria's affairs.
Tht current world oil glut hat temporarily rednced expert revenset and. If prolonged,-nmv feree Nigeria to' borrow from multilateral or private lending Inttitutlont and curtail economic development tnd IndustrInlIxatlen. Growth In rtnl ONPtreent0 nnd projected l0ercentagot will nave te adept ttrlet Import controls tnd cut hack on development projtett If expert etrnlngt contlqot te ftlttr mneh btyond lha end of thlt year. Nigeria needt to shift more Invtttmcnt Into commodity-producing tectortspecially Into long-neglected agricultureto reduce Itt evtrwhtlmlng dependence on limited ell rtseurctt and le auttaln growth over the longer term.
Olobtl View
Nlgtrla battreng Interett la the Worth-South dialogue te tuppori Itt claimeading role In African tffalrt and to champion tha tllmlnttlon of white minority rule la southern Africa. Lagot thut trlet to be the tpohesnvtn-tor Bine* Afr lea't economic Interests. Nigeria strongly detlret ta ttav In atep wltn other developing eountrlea and civet relatively uncritical luppert to tht Third World consentut ea mafor North-Southntt. Nigeria etn do to beetutt,ajor oil producer. It tttndt to gtln or lets relatively little from moatpropesalt. Nigeria genernllv favors ttoderatlon and practical remits te tterlle eonfrentttlont but It Is act aboverhetnrleal criticism of thc West la derieethy poorer African atttet fer eoneetiloniry oil prlee relief and ether eeonomle aid. Nlgtrla la tkeptleal ever protpeelt for major Western economic eoncestlena ta the Third World.
Especial Ions for Caneun
Nigeria'* ebjectlvet for the Summit will he ta reinforce Itt Imageegional leader. Although Lagos mav hav* little concrete la gain from thc discontent. It cea be expected ta loot
utter the Interest* ef It* poorer neighbors hvassistance nnn cooperation from the IndnstrItlIzed countries. Be bolstering Its credentials UJP,leader. Nigeria em* be ah|>
te counter criticism ef OPEC's lack ef eentnltment to Third World
eeonomie development.
Position* ot Specific Isincs
Food andigeria I* Interested la Increasing the Influx of Western agrtechnology te Afrle*.
- Nigeria favors *sport atabllI sat Ion progr prlmnrv products.
- Nigeria will tr? to soft pedal Its failure to provide petroleum to developing nations at concessional prleca.
Otherigeria mavole* concern over the direction of USsouthern Afrle* pollevIts perception thst African rielal coneerns are taking seeond plae*^terUS eonearn with eoueterlng Communist Influenee Ineeaus* ef the world oil glut and consequent shortfalls In Nigerian *ll produetlon and revenuas, Nigerian delegates will teak Increased American private Investment In Nigeria particularly in th* agricultural sector.
i
o
>tXElGN WFlOXALS
TTO nill.lPPIhTS
PoliUcalcVor.efr.le
global_
on, of the radlealwltf opJIII?*
International ordtr.fee if** ii*,
ef ASEAN countries, part,epreie-tatIve
Expectations fo/ Caneun
-Crxpnpfwitx
not
FOREIGN WfriONAIJ
Population - Th* Philippines It Interetted In
expanding food aid nnd seeuri tvince ftnllv planning programs are [mporlant in ASEAN country development VtrttegWt, the Philippines ma* raise the nee* for Incretted international population atslttanee.
he Philippines it concerned ahont wide twinesrrort prlmarv eotrroodltv export! and mav want toto keep prleet from falling, tueh <
. Energywant ta explore agreements for secure
all supply andprleet,
probably la Interested In dlteetttng thewhich multlnntlonal corporalIontOPEC eountrletmoney tnd technology, for tpcclfle Thirdbypassing the World Bank and -otherbanks and their stringent eoLdltloht
Intcrnatlo-al Monetaryeetutc of Itt highburden, the Philippines may seek support forrole of the IMF to provide balanee-ot-paymentsfor extending payback t
suet - The Phllipptnei may Informally bring onU" of concern of the il" .LPe frbauecettful conclusion to the Third TO Conference on the Law ef the Sea, which will reconvene In Augott. The Philippines hit offcred to beeome the
n* mand It anxious to launch the Fund.
NOT Hrft-Vffiril.E TO
SAUDI ARABIA
PolHlg.il and Economic, SoU lng;
The outlook for staK.llty InArable It reasonably good over Ihe next twolthough the seizure of the Grant Moaqn* In Meeea Int shocked the Saudla, It did not undermine the cohesion or confidence of tho leadership. it had somesalutarv effeeta bv forelnc Saudi leaders le address poll Ileal end seeurltv problem* thee had Ignored. Sinee the Incident, Saudi leaders have tried te strengthen the traditional religion* and tribal underpinnings of the regime, ante anxlelv over the paee of modernlxallon, and levrove the Internal security forces.
Saudi Arabia currently produces aboutcreent ofoutput and provMca aroundereent of US oltper capita GNP ofaudi Arabia remainseonntrv. The Saudis have promotedecade. Governmcni expenditureslanning period are elated to be t'SOfor eeonomie development. These efforts largely dependtechnology and foreign skilled manpower
jDJohal View
Saudi Arable regards Itselfwmber In good stendlngThird Worldautious supporter ofTreater role for developing countries laeenneme. At the seme time, the Saudis guardIn OPEC and strivereater role: In theand tha IMF. Saudi Arabia Is aware that Its elosewith Western Industrial nations often are erltlelzedThe Saudis contend that their actions within OP FT andpolicies benefit not only the West but" Ihe-
Saudi Arabia hat established Its credential! as aa aid donor particularly lo lamle atetetand aupports LEV demands for Increased financial eatlslance as well as greater representation and deeUlonmnklng power In amiateral financial Institutions. Saudi Arabia would prefer to coordinate Its aid efforts with OPEC and OrrD countries un*ed Institutions, such as the IMF or World Bank. The Saudis areo discussions thai *ocna on reevellng nf petrodollars
ieending dlreetlvfor Cancan
Arabia's mala objectives will be la minimis* lit to aad de'en* Itself from Western and Third World .censure. Saudi Arabia will probably deflect criticism bv
*
j
ciwidAtjal
HOTFORE ION rUflOHALS
contending that OP FT" actions respond lo the Interntteonomle ivttem Imposed bv th* IndustrializedTheir representatives wllso eontrnt Snudl and OPEC aid records with those of OECD countries and point oat Saadl effortichieve oil price unite and lone; term price formula.
Th* Saudis are concerned that the LDCs will com* to Caneun lest prepared than the Industriallaed countries. Therefore, thev have sought VS views on Caneun and will likaly remain In touch with US officials. Prlne* Saud will probably goate-Julv caucus In New York of LDC foreign ministers attendlig the preparatory meeting In Mexico.
The Saudis llkelv hope the US will trv to hrldg* the extreme positions of the LDCs and the Industriallacd countries. The Saudis hav* emphasl'cd that It I* politically difficult to havespecial relation with th* US If our aetlons ar* continually perceived as Inconsistent with th*v*rwh*lming majority of LDCs.- -
Petitions on Specific Issues
* Th.* Bank Energy
Affiliate to Millg* development! It not yet firm. Mott recently, Saudi Arabia rebuffed an attempt bv Canadian Prime Minister Trtidanu to get Saudi support for It.
Arabia may focus on the decline of th* OECD
share oT CNP allocated to aid. Th* Saudlt may aimcrltled that most of tht aid It tied to procurement from OECD countries tndl than half of OECD aid got* to poorer LTr*t. Thev will contrast thlt with much belter Saudi and OPEC records. They mav raise proposals to Increase IMF tsslttance te UJTt and LLDCs.
nternational Monetaryhe Saudis willthat the burden of financing and servicing th* deficits of
y Inflation andralet In the Westorn
Otherrown Prlne* Fahd *nd Foreign Ministerwin almott ecrtalnlv espeet separate conan)tat Ionsftragan and Secretary Halg, even though both ma*soon. Prlne* Saud't vltlt It llh*ivccur meeting. Depending on progress on
S/AKVTS package Inown Prlnee,
thorlly before er after the Caneun Summit. Studl Arabia hat alsrav. given strong rhetorical support le greater technology from Industrial Malta ta LDCtajor leal af rapid
fOTIn/jiAL NO*O rOREICH NATIONALS
TANZANIA
Political unitmlc SMtlng
"tni-nniii'i deter lora11ng eeonomv hasresidentwith the strongest teat to date of hi* political leadership. Tanzaniaost of cxternol factors, Inctndlnr rlalng oil and other Import prices, eioort mnrkct fluctuations, and two years of drought, for Its Ills. Bet mismanagement of paranatal organizations, corruption,nd the burden of providing security In Uganda have alsoeleterious effcet on the eennomv nnd have led to unprecedented public crltloism of Nyorere. Although Tanzania ha* taVen aome recent step* to Introduce more Incentives Into its eeonomie system, Nyerero remain* conmlted to socialism.
Tanzania's eeonomv expanded atereent In 1M0 and growth could be even slower la ISsT.erformance Is aubs tant lal Iv below theain* In the mld-is-TOs andombination of bnd weather and years of chronic miPnr capita GNP Isince agriculture provides oyer half of GNP and prices for Tansanle's agricultural exporta are low, the eeonomv Iso Improve. The war In Uganda hat alreadyremendousn on Tansanla's eeonomv, hut theat Ion ef troops coming back from Uganda could worsen tha eeonomie unrest aad lead to violence.
GlobajL View
measures.
Tanzania's leadership believes lhat th* West, napcelallv the US, will reform only under constant pressure aad embarrassment from the Third World. Tanzania, therefore, advocates strong Third World unltv and almsnternationally organised meehnnlsnri far tranaferrlne wealth t* poorer countries and 'orair" trade values and imrfcetor Third World products.lender* realize, however, thnt their goal* will not be reatlredombative atmosphere.ruatrMlenalao directed at OPET and the Soviet Union, which tt regardsparsimonious with eeonomie assistance, r.ni.
r*r*riOWAI^
tor example, thathould at leaat orev Id. compensation to NNI the LDCs' oil cost Ineresaes slaee MTI.
Etppctnti for Cancun
*nntenla looks forward to the Cancan Stnrralt as Tet another oppeMunlivound it, views end these of thef m' since Nverere place. Importance on the Sennit appearing. success, he will probable be willing to avoid confrontation while
countries lo solve their economic woes the Third World will
feePreiil;- J" "'omenta that stress the need
"d de
Positions on Specific Issue*
reroT demands for preferential tarlfTTon" developed conntrv Imperii from the LDC,. 1
M Inoreaied financial ecwiswnla from lndu.irTalle.rf countries with fewer condition. alt.eher
elal1' Union and
ivehe
J7yerere sill likelynternational org.nl.itions In order to ensure tho continued flow of development assistance.
m<*tJ?Mr" lh* with
senior us officials, they .re likely lo thank the US for raaawi
food assistance and lobby for continuing US .Ion"m
southern Mr lea*, pollev. pertleularly reg.rding Hamibi. raise
JSforVorVlgnandfdseyecretary General.
awFidby/iAL
KOTO FOREIGN rWTIONALS
MHImI and Economic SMtlnc;
President Herrert't eeonomle and political problems will Intensify In the remaining three years of Ms term. He llkelv will continue to muddle through by adjusting government policies In response to greater pressures but Is unllkelv te change substantially his progressive style of government or use the full powers of his office to solve vexing problems.
a
Discontent with the performance ofears ef elvlllan governments has led some Vcnesuelonz to believellltarv
leader couldetter Job. As an Institution, however, the military Is not sufficiently alarmed about current trends to want
to return to power. It would do so only If the governmentto suppress widespread disorder-or- te -avert disastrous eeonomle V
Venezuela's ceonomv has languished for the past two ycars.-Real GNP growth was lesserecnt-fnEspecial ly-wl th thc soft oil market, President Herrera will be unable to implement any pollelct ta spur growth to the official target ofercent this year. Even though_n America and per capita Income It overtrgo Ineome gto between the rich, tnd the poor It becoming politically treubletom*.
Globalj
enezuela hat contlttcntlyeader of-T en North-South Issnes and currently ehalrtT at -the ON In Newlong believed thtt the International trading tvstcra is biated la favor of the Industrialized countries tnd has attempted to improve Us
_ trade bvVenezuela has alto expressed Itt belief Inforoncttry reform but hat never advancedIn.
e strtngthen eeonomle cooperation amongnnd spearheaded the drive for the recent "South-South-meeting held in Caracal, which pushed for the creationT secretariat. Venezuela has eontlttcntlv prctted Its fellow OPEC members to expand development assistance to other Third World eountrict. Along with Mexico, Caracas has created an oil rae Illy ta annually provide aomeillion to energy-poor natleni af tht Caribbean batln.
Expectatlona for ranenn
ew Irapetut
te the UN Globnl Negotiation* nnd will 'eebtlcts putb thlt
Uemphatlt, Vencxuela alto will llkelv ttrctt the need for eocpcrntlen among the LDP*. Ia
t0will aeek teeilllons en Specific [fJJM
- Veneiuela Willirmooperation, etpeelelly between non-oil and ell prod.elne
oREifjc tyrirxMi
' YTOOSLAYIA
PoIlt1-a| an-* Economic SfHlnr
The Yugoslav leadership tinly we* Ihered It*ear without Titosolte * lltt of problem*. These Include rumblings of nationalism among Kosovo'* elhnleressure* from Intellectuals and some . partv leader* to liberalise, and an economy bc**t by high Inflation, declining living standard*, tmbaleneedn productivity, nnd chronic unemployment. The collective leadership system* In which top partv *nd stnt* post* are annual Iv rotated arnrng representative* of the country's rcpuhllc* and provinces, ha* functioned amoolhlv. Belgrade haa followed It* traditional foreign pollev ohjcetlv* of preserving Its Independenee through continued Involvement In the nonaligned movement, stability and balance In dealing with Moscow and Washington, and aa good relations a* possible with II* neighbors.
Yugoslavia'* most severe economic problem at thla tlrne la. aeceleraIIng.Inf1st Ion, which reached an annual rate'ef roughly Al ptrcent In stay Despite government effort* to curb Imports and boost exports, Yugoslavia** trade balance worsened during the first five months of ausing Belgrade k out new loans from Western and Arab banks lo finance ll* current aecount deficit for the remainder Yucoslovla Imported jhrce-quarter* of It* total petroleum consumption. Anv future OPEC price Increase* will upset Yugoslavia's Import tnrett for tho vear and Increase Inflationary pressure*. Political contention among competing republics over appropriate ontrol measure*, Investment priorities, nnd foreign trade policies hinder* th* government's ability to Implement effective adjustment programs.
Olobal View
Yugoslavia wa* one of th* original founder* of the non-aligned movement and haseen actprombt Ing eeonomle deycloomcnt free from rormnl alllanc* with *lther superpower. Yugoslavia seel Itselfatural Intermediaryglobal affairs because of It* unique geopolitical and economic altuatloneitherorullv Industrialized nation nor an LDC. Therefore, Belgrade usuallyoderating role In multilateral discussions, promoting cooperation and compromise Instead of confrontation that polarise*
Expectation* fnr fnwenn
The Yugoslav* view th* Caneun Sunml t aa a meeting Inlernational economic
cooperation. Thev see themselvesntermediary for lhcountrlea, although Yugoslavia Is not teehnleall-LDC. Belgrade'* priority at the Sunml| will he to keep
HOTFOREIGN yFlONALS'
negotiation* Hl>*. tA^ir^^
6"* "M Dolllie.llyeeonomle.il*
hi view . positive
reopen negotiation, in ,he UN fornra.d^
Positions on Speojfle
th. - Tegoelael. 1. a it rone aapporter*f
proposal. Yogoalaei. ,ee. It.
Original document.
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