POLAND: ROLE OF THE CHURCH

Created: 2/4/1982

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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SPECIAL ANALYSES

POLAND: Pole of the Church

Jne prolonged martial law crisis hae weakened the Church's ability to mediate between the regime and society. The Church haa

lost its preferred role ae "honest broker" facilitating dialogue between Solidarity and the state, and the hierarchy disagrees over

the proper course to follow. The Church's concern about possible violence will tendto^ake it appear to support regime efforts to maintain control.

Since the imposition of martial law, the Church has retained its moral authority, organizational structure, and popular support. The Church's criticism of martial law restrictions has enhanced its traditional image as defender of human rights and critic of excesses by the state. Its involvement in aid distribution hasits bonds with the population and hashat it remains the only reliable link with the West. |

Despite its unrivaled moral authority, however, the Church lacks the power to guide developments. Some leaders of the Church fear that government and party hardliners have enough momentum to threaten its access to_ tbe media and the freedom to teach catechism.

The leaders also are frustrated at their failure to bring party and Solidarity moderates together and their inability to prevent dangerous outbursts such as the one last week in Gdansk. The Church's influence probably is weakest among younggroup rogst likely to engago in violent resistance.

Ambivalence Toward Solidarity

Although the Church is attempting to get *Jie ban on Solidarity lifted and ite rights restored, it knows that the regime will never consent. Furthermore, many in the

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Church who earlier counseled caution to Solidaritynow partly blame thoespecially its Intel lectual the continuing crisi TaaesmB

Archbishop Glemp sooms frustrated with theof Solidarity leadora, particularly Loch Walesa. Continued Church pressure on Solidarity to scale down its demands and to persuade Walesa to talk with the regime could put it directly at odds with union leaders.

Differences Within the Church

Thore is basic agreement within the Churchon the need to avoid violence, to ease martial law restrictions, and to renew the union-govornmont dialogue. At the same time, however, there are considerableover tactics.

The tensetho danger that unrest will lead to moreany course of action risky. The most difficult calculation for Church leaders isgauglng the amount of pressure to put On tne regime.

Archbishop Glemp hasiddle-of-the-road position, lie believes that the Church has totrong stand against tho regime's repressive measures. So also is afraid to undercut Premier Jaruzelski, whom he viewsoderate under siege by hardliners. jsupportGd Jaruzelski and has opposed US sanctions,

The Archbishop, however, lacks the authority of the late Cardinal Wyszynski, end his tactics have beenby other prelates. The more moderate among them believe that tough statements are counterproductive, while the more conservative believe the regime will move toward accommodation only under Increased pressure. H^Hfffl

Pope John Paul II probably will discuss thesewith Glemp and several high-ranking bishops when they arrive in Rome today. Toe delegation Includes two prelates who represent the contending viewpoints. fJffJJ

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The Pope is likely to endorse continuing GleinP's strategy, perhaps with some modifications. The Pontiff would be reluctant to run roughshod over his former colleagues, however, and the resultant decision may be ambiguous enough to allow for continued differences of approach at the local level.

Such differences need not impede seriously the Church's ability to actnified fashion In Warsaw. Local clashes between the Church and regime, however, may become issues of contention at tho national

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Despite internal disputes over tactics, concern in tho Church over violence and the possibility of Soviet intervention will prompt its leaders to take positions that in effect support tho regime's pacification efforts. Its standing with the populace, howover, is not likely to be damaged, and the Church will continue to beosition

icourage any eventual political accommodation. Jj

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Original document.

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