Created: 8/11/1982

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EASTERN EUROPE: Grain Harvest Prospects

Grainin Eastern2 probably will total aboutillion tone, slightly above the harvest last year ofillion tonsand nearmillion-ton average of the past five

Coaoent: Good crop prospects in Poland, Hungary, and Yugoslavia will largely be offset by problems in Romania and Czechoslovakia. Crop conditions in East Germany and Bulgaria point toward an average grain harvest.

The production of small grainsrye, barley, andlikely to be above average. On the other hand, the condition of the cornone-third of total East European grainonly an average harvest. Heather during the next several weeks will stillole in determining production, because the harvest does not begin until late September. |

A near-average grain harvest will only marginally improve food supplies in Eastern Europe. Host regimes, faced with hard currency constrainte, have already planned cutbacks in grain imports this year. Grain imports in the marketing year ending3 will decline moderately from4 million tons imported inyearitself was belowmillion-ton average of the previous three years,

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The grain shortages will lead to further declines in livestock herds. The result1ng reductions in meat supplies, especially in Poland, Romania, Bast Germany, and Czechoslovakia, will increase public dissatisfaction.

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