POLAND: PROSPECTS FOR RENEWED UNREST

Created: 8/13/1982

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

SPECIAL ANALYSIS

POLAND: Prospects for Renewed Unrest

necessary to keep t

The next two weeke wiltolatile period in Poland. Die-content has increased. Solidarity has called for renewed opposition, and important religious celebrations will attract large crowds. Although demonstrations are not likely to be widespread, sporadic unrest could lead to serious clashes with the police. Some protests could occur as sarin as today, which marks eight months of martial

Militancy seems to be on the rise. Frustrations have been building over steadily declining livingand tight martial law restrictions. The regime's failure to relax martial law restrictions significantly or to allow the_papal visit in August has heightened discontent. aaVeM

activists and apparently some rank-and-file adherents are angry over the regime's refusal to allow Solidarity any role. Union sources claim sentiment for protest actions is strong throughout the country. ^

Solidarity and the Church

The underground leadership of Solidarity has called for two weeks of peaceful protests culminatingarge demonstration onugust to commemorate the secondof the union's founding. Well-placed sources report the leaders want to prove the union isolitical force to be reckoned with while restraining the militancy they see in the factories. Theycalled for the demonstrations to maintain their credibility with workers.

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solidarity's move to renew protest activity reverses its decision in July to suspend agitation in the hope that the regime would relex martial law and allow the

Pope to visit this month. Union leaders also realized many workers had been Intimidated by theregime'sensures following earlier protwats. smssmj

Solidarity leaders still do net agree on how far to go in resuming protent activity. They believeeneral strike--their ultimatebebecause the union is not readyonfrontation Others insist strike planning should proceed, if onlyactic to exact concessions from the authorities and to help reestablish the onion's communications.

eneral strike appear to have prompted somein Gdansk on the Balticproceed independently with their own Jtmepians^jter this month. Some local strikes

Leaders of the Catholic Church are concerned about the possibility o' violence but have not hesitated to blame the regime publicly for the delay of the papal visit. They are going ahead with the traditional pilgrimage to the southern city of Czestochowa and with the celebration ofth anniversary of Poland's most sacred icon. Both events will draw largelarge numbers of youngof notionalist fervor.

The Church seems likely to keep criticism of the government within bounds and control the large crowds. On the other hand, there almost certainly will be some outbursts against martial law.

The Rcgime'a Strategy

Premier Jaruzelski seems satisfied with thecalm he has imposed through intimldstion but remains concerned over Solidarity's potential power. In making onjly token concessions last month, however, he may have misjudged the popular mood and failed to grasp the extent to which expectations were raised by the Church and by moderates in the regime aa they urged more conciliatory policies. |

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government continual to portray the union's leadersnail group of Militants with little support and has contemptuously dismissed the union'a calls on the population to oppose the regime. The reconton Solidarity activists involved in printing loaf-lots and newspapers, however, ow sonse of apprehension in the government. More such actions are likely to thwart jjnjon militants and to intimidatedemonstrators. Wfgfi

Jaruselaki will not hesitate to use force to counter protests. The authorities recently have been circumspect when faced with dct-onst rat ions and probably willnterfere directly with the religious observance. f

The respond if provoked or ifappearescalating. The riotoverreactpeaceful demonstration" have In the past.

Outlook

Widespread unrest seams unlikely, but there could be enough Incidents to prompt strong repressive Measures. The regime has deployed enough security forcai toorder. Should local disorders threaten to spread, the authorltiea would not hesitate to cut off rtimpose other restrictions, and quickly mobilise additional security units.

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Jaruselaki remains committedengthy period of stringent militaryow round of disorders would make the regime more uneasy and would prompt it to place an even higher priority on coercion, further widening the gap between the government and the people. Jaruzelski believes, nevertheless, that tine la on hii side and that he can eventually wear down resistance.

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Original document.

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