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Special Analysis
Insurgent Threat to the Sandinistas
andinietae' recent declaration*ilitary emergency along Sicaragua'e northern border reflects their grouting concern about the increasing capabilities of ineurgenta baaed in Hondurae. Sandinieta military and security forces are the largest in Central America, howexer. and can counter any near-term challenge, Mean-whilf, renewed efforts toward greater cooperation among the various insurgent factions have failed to make significant progrese.
ull in September, insurgent attacks from Honduras occurred almost daily during October. Most strikes were small harassment operations against Sandinista border posts and isolated patrols. Some recent attacks may have been diversions to infiltrate insurgent units from Honduras and establish base camps in Nicaragua. |
The insurgents also have conducted sabotageand the destruction of several key bridges earlier this year indicates that they can disrupt the country's road network. In addition, an attack in Augustoad construction camp caused an2 million in damage. t|
The personnel costs to the Nicaraguana have been high. The government has admittedilled in the last three months, and the total thus far this year may be. Several Cubans also have been killed.
The Insurgent Groups
The attacks from Honduras are being carried out primarily by the Nicaraguan Democratic Front, the only insurgent group that hasustained military capability. It is led largely by former members of the Nicaraguan National Guard and includes disaffected Sandinistas, Miskito Indians, and other Nicaraguan dissidents. The Front now has anull-time, armed personnel, and itto grow rapidly.
The Democratic Revolutionary Alliance, which is based in Costa Rica, is the other major anti-Sandinista organization. Itoose federation led byhero Eden Pastora and former Nicaraguan junta member AJfonso Robelo. The Alliance is trying toilitary capability while continuing propaganda aimed at undermining Western economic support for Managua.
//The Sandinistas have reacted to the insurgent threat from Honduras by continuing to strengthen their forces in the northern border area.
//In addition, Managua recently extended aof emergency. It suspended most civilanother six
The Sandinistas' mounting fears are reflected in their increasing allegations of an imminent invasion from Honduras. They apparently are using the allegations to rally popular support, to deflect internationalof their repressive policies, and to justify their continuing military buildup. Managua also recentlyhite paper alleging morencidents on the Honduran border during the past three years,
Outlook
//The insurgents probably realize that their hopes of overthrowing the Sandinistas hinge on massive popular support for an uprising and on defections from the Army. There is widespread dissatisfaction with the regime, mostly among the middle class. There is little evidence at this time, however, that popular support and Army
Sandinistas, not wanting to appear thehave refrained thus far from major attacks on insurgent bases in Honduras. Nicaragua's recent election to the UN Security Council, however, may have reducedon such actions. Moreover, if the insurgents become more unified and their threat continues to grow, Nicaragua is likelvto ask Cuba for greatly expanded military support. ^LAW
Original document.
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