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Special Analysis
POLAND: Easing Martial Law
An end to martial lav in the near future will not erode the regime'$ control or the military's involvement in political affairs. Premierthe support of partytry to carry out eome reforms he hae advocated but could continue to be thwarted by the bureaucracy and political hardliners. Solidarity ia unlikely to mount any immediate, serious challenge, in part beoaueo of internal debates over strategy. The Church willto counsel moderation and may become more active inthe people's interests. I
Jaruzelski appears intent on removing somethe trappings of martial law before the end of the year to show movement toward normalization. The government's confidence has grown since it faced down underground Solidarity onovember, released Lech Walesa, and eased many martial law restrictions. J ^
The regime also has taken some steps to unsure its control after martial law is ended. Recent legislation provides many legal means to thwart protests, seje^
The new trade union law, for example, severelystrikes and protests} other laws onlcohol abuse, and junvenile delinquency allow theconsiderable latitude in punishing dissenters. Parliamont will meet soon to adopt more special measures.
The government apparently has not yet decided on modalities for ending martial law. According to one report, it might move in stages, with final action to come possibly In March. In any event parliament may grant the state presidency "emergency" powers to run the country, with Jaruzelski becoming head of state while remaining party leader.
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As martial law is lifted, some military bodies will be dissolved, including the Military Council of National Salvation and most military special operational groups Military courts may no longer have jurisdiction over civilian cases. ' 1
Remaining restrictions on public assembly andand foreign communications will be removed orof thenternees will besome intellectuals may "ace legal chargesdissident activity. Thecharged or convicted of violating martial lawbo released.
For security reasons, the military will remain heavily Involved in administering the country. Equally important, Jaruzelski looks to the military toersonal power and administrative control. Officers in government and party positions may simply don civilian garb, and many overseeingfactorieswill remain in place.
The nationwide hierarchy of defensemainstay of martiallikely to retain its key-role in ensuring calm and will continue to rely on the secret police and the uniformed civilian police. The military will remain available on short notice to back up civilian forces.
Policy Stalemate
Jaruzelski also may try to make good on some of tho economic and administrative reforms ho and partyhavo advocatod. He will continue, however, to face strong bureaucratic and political resistance. The political impasse might deepen as the armed forcesto wield considerable power in the face of the expectations of many party officials that they willreater role. 1 11
The Premier could gain some credibility by showing he is willing to allow the unions moreominal role in representing the workers' Interests. He mightall by Walesa to have workers join the unions, because this would give them the appearance of legitimacy.
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Such an attitude, however, would run into opposition from party hardliners. They would argue that such apolicyevival of Solidarity. Party stalwarts in many factories who were opposed to Solidarity have taken the lead in setting up the new unions, even though Warsaw apparently does not want local party organizations to be so blatant. Baeael
Solidarity's Prospects
Despite the fears of some underground activists, Walesa seems unlikely toeal with the regime. He has been cautious in his public statements but still gives the Impression of wanting to push for fulfillment of tho "spirit* of the agreements of0 that gave rise to Solidarity, fff^
Walesa seems Inclined to wait for the lifting of martial law before seriously considering future actions. Alter the beginning of the year, he is likely to try to reestablish contact with the men who formed the core of Solidarity in order to discuss future strategy.
Some will argue that any form of resistance is in the near term. Others, probably including Walesa, might argue that the only way to keep pressure on tho regime to carry out Solidarity's ideaso try to subvert the new government-sponsored unions. Walesa would require broad agreement from other activists, however, before he would openly supportontroversial policy.
The Church's Role
Senior officials of the Church will urge Walesa to work within the new unions, believing this to be the only way to make them represent the workers' interests. the Church reportedly may assume financialfor Walesa and his family, it probably will be cautious in associating itself in any formal way with other former union loaders, smsal
Tho Church also may move to fill some of theby Solidarity's dissolution. Archbishop Glemp, plans to have tho Church advocato moreinterests of Polish society and to establishwith tho workers. The Church also will push theto make good on its promised political andin thenot be able togovernment to take action.
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