NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

Created: 11/1/1983

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

IRAQ: Diplomatic Offensive

Baghdad is carrying out an intense diplomatic ollensive to ease its economic suanguictton ando>'ce Iran lo negotiate,ihesc ellortsdelteci any condemnation ol future Irani attacksn's oil lifeline Hags diplomatic strategy has included promotionN Security Council resolution thai canedhe war Bagnoad alsoeeking some improvementts relations mth thehe diplomatic ci'crts laii to produce significant progress, the traois are likely to intensity air attacks later this year, probably using Super Etondard aircraft to attack tankers serving Iran.

The dlplomaiic otfen&ve is motivated by Iraq's oconomlc plight and probably also by eroding morale in the military and the general population. Baghdad already has had io make sharp import cuis thl*

year and to do'ofn paymeniiloJicJD Balance its

account

began lis diplomatic effort In August with warnings to Us backers In the Persian Gulf lhal ll would step up the war II they did not provide enough aid for lis economic needs. Baghdad probably also pushed these Slates to urge the US and other western nations in turn to renew pressure on Iran to end the wa'. I-

Baghdnd ihnn requested Western countries to urge theales In ihe Persian Gull lo Increase financial 3upport [or Iraqis also asked the US andto halt third-country sales of their arms to Iran andin Iranian oil purchases by West European countries.Its threats to strike Iranian oil facilities, hoping to playtsars Ihnl such attacks could bring Iranlnn retaliationoil Installations ond involve ihe West in the conflict. I

Efforts In ths UN

irsq recently succeeded In golnlng the adoption by ihe UN Security Councilesolution cslltnqease-firo and underscoring international support tor freedom of navigation In the Persian Gulf Baghdad hopes fo exploit the Iranian opposition to the resolution toiplomatic basis lor using the Super Etendards against Iranian oil targets.

Relations With the US

Iraq is otlompling to improve relations wilh the US andUS support. Baghdad believes that US leadership is neededWestern action against

The Iraqisew man in September to head their mtorests Section in Washington ond emphastied to US officials tus dose ties lo President Saddam Husayn. More recently, Saddam reversed tho iraqi position on relations with the US by stating publicly that Baghdad mighi normalize ties wilh Washington before the war ends,

Saddam also responded lo US complaints about Iraqi linksgroups by claiming that Iraq has severed Boa wtlh AOuof the Black June Palestinian terrorists.

Rsiults Mixed

Iraq has provoked Iranian counterthreals to close the Strait ofhus succeeding in bringing home to the West the danger of expanded fighting. Baghdad's efforts have secured some additional aid from the Gull slates and promises of moraf

The Gulf states havo renewed pressure onfarreopen the Iraqi oil pipeline through Syria in ordor to heaOidening of Ihe war. The oil line, even wilh only ono of its two spurs open. could increase Iraq's currentrevenues byeraudi Arabia reportedly also has agreed in principle lo allow Iraq toipeline mat would connect with the trans-Saudi lino, although Riyadh appears unenIhusiaslic about tho projectf^ '

Iraq probably win await the reactions lo lis dipiomatlc efforts in Ihe UN and the Gull boloro making new military moves. Iraq will expect the Gulf Arabs to provide additional funds If, as Is likely. Syria retuses lo reopen the pipeline In (he next several weeks. If Saddam dec-das thai his diplomatic offensive can make no further headway, however, he will rely more on his military alternsl.ve. including the Super Etendards |

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