National intelligence Daily (Cable)
Tuesday
13
Special Ariteyala
IRAQ: Diplomal* Offensive
arrying out an Intense diplomatic offensiveesse its economic strangulation and to tore* Iran to negotiate.those effortsdeflect any condemnation ot Mute Iraqi attacks on lien's oil Utehno- Iraq's diplomatic strategy has included promotionN Security Council tesolulion that calledease-tire in the war. Baghdad also is seeking somets relations with thehe diplomatic efforts fail to produce signiheant progress, the Iraqis ate hkety to intensify elf attacka later this year. proOeDly using Super Etcndo'd aircrat to attach (takers serving In
/fine diplomatic offensive I* motivated by Iraq's economic plignt and probably also by eroding morale in the "miliary end rbe general population. Baghdad atraady has had tn malmImnnri cultr and tosnout t* baton in paytnonts tn hntpurrtnl account.
//Iraq began Its diplomatic effort In AuqusI with warnings to Its backers in the Persian Gulf that It would step up the warhey did not provide enough eld (or Ha economic needs. Baghdad probably also pushed those states to urge tho US and other Western nations In turn lo renew pressure on Iran to end the wer|
//BaghciS than requested Western countriesrge the Arab statesersiano Increase *nsnc'a( suoport *or
Iraqi* also asked the US end tho
UK to hsft third-country sales of their arms to Iran and sought cutoecks in Iranian oil purchases by West European countries. Iraq repeated Its threats to strike Iranian oil facilities, hoping to play on
Westsm teats that suet.rWaliailon against Gull oil matallatlons end Involve the West In the conflict^
f ffofia In the UN
//Iraq recently succeeded In gaining tha adoption by the UN Security Councilesolution callingoase-flre and underscoring mlernetkinal support for freedom o( navigation in the Paraten Gulf Baghdad0 WwpWt the (ranlm tpposltlon to the resolution toiplomatic basis lor using the Superaalntl Iranian o* taroats.f
aaUlt
m
IMirttom With the U8
ttempting to Improve relations with, the US and gam puNIc US support. Baghdad brieves thai US leadership is needed to
elicit Western action agalns! Iran
//The Iraqisew man In September to head their interests. Section In Waahlnglon and emphasired lo US officials his dote tie* lo President Seddam Husayn. More recently. Saddam reversed rhe Iraqi position on relations wfth tho US by stating publicly that Baghdad might normalize ties with Waahlnglon before the war
//Saddam also responded to US complaints about Iraqi linksgioups by claiming that Iraq has severed ties with Abuof lha Slack June Palestinian
Results Mixed
//Iraq has provoked Iranian counterthreats to close the Straitthus succeeding In bringing home to the WmI the dangerlighting. Baghdad's efforts have soco-ed somefrom the Gulf states and promises of
//The Gull slates have ronewea pressure onfarreopen the Iraqi oil pipeline through Syria Ineadwening of the war.on* Hoe even with only one of Hi two spurs npnn. woW irxrease *aq'9O percent. Saudi Arabia reportedly also has agreed In principle to enow Iraq toipetrno thai would connect with the trans-Saudi line, although Riyadh tppears unerrthusiasilc about the protect.//
probably will await the reactions to lis diplomatic efforts hi the UN end ihe Gull before making now militaryraq win expect tne Guft Arabs to provide additional lunOs if. as rs Hkely,uses to reopen the pipeline In the next several weeks. If Saddam decides thai his dtpkwnallc offensive can moke no further headway, however, he will rely more on his military alternative, Including the
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