Created: 3/15/1985

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National Intelligence Daily




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Warning Page



attack In lhe marshes appears to have tailed, although Tehran soon may launch new operations In the central border region. H B

Claim* ila UuOpa have regained some area* iney lOSt nd arc strengthening tnei: defenses, around die Iranian bridgehead. Tne speaker ol (Ha Iranian parliament nas described ihc ai; marshes as.

Oagndad says II will axempt tne Iranian city of Sorujard (torn further anaefcs because the citizens ol that city have staged demonstrations, againsi ihc Iranian reaime end the war.l

errorist tj^mb-not an Iranianuilding in Baghdad yesterday

jreund reinforcements and atr. arunttyjj/ggj/

_ iy have prevented the Iranians from expanding the orieceneaa. end Tehran could be calling ma operation "limited" to explain the lack ol progress. The movement ot Iranian troops in the soutn and central areas, nowever. suggests that otner attacks could oe launched across ihe marshesizable diversionary operation begun fanner

Aitnougn ine Iranians may be trying Damascus and Tripoli


probably believes lis raids on cities arc weakening. Iranian morale. It is likely to increase tts missile and air attacks but to offer ai the same lime to spare olher cities and thus encourage further unrest in Iran.

Nuclear Program Under Neves

Prosldont TencrodoNovoslsunllkely soon IO propose ma/or

changos Inof

nuclearmsfoi Impediment lo belter relations with Washington*

siilt-influeniiai miliiary establishment, in particular, strongly supports indigenous nuclear research efforts and has significant control over key portions of lhat program. Naves has appointed outgoing Vice President Chaves to head the governmeni minisiry thai formally administers ad civilian nuclear agencies. Chaves Is wedded to tho indigenous nuclear program and ho Is likely to permit the- Navy to sniii some sensitive nuclear projects from civilian Io military lacilihes.

hrewd poliiician. who win no; readily cede full

control ol nuclear programs to the military. He also is sympathetic to the scientific community's opposition to potential weapons applications ol nuclear resear chdflHflkV

The new Presidents popular and has workedtoolid relationship with ma miliiary. while making it dear he opposes nuclear weapons development. Me appears to have no persona! desire either to drastically alter Bratir* nuclear program or to challenge the military's role in It. Nevertheless, ho is likely to use nis pooula'iiy and cradiptjityri some inlluence over the nuclear program.

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French Assistance

5 budget sharply reduces miliiary andssistance to Olack African countries, turlher straining relations already mode tense Oylucignce to challenge Libya's continued occupation ol Chad.

programs lor such close French allies as Ivory Coasi. Senegal. Gaoon. and Ojibouii have been affected.Mn^oumbcrnnr^fi-ilcril personnel in Ivorys|

diiiiculiy replacing deponing French advisers and mat even such stalwart supporters as Ivorian President Hpuphouet-BoiQny are Oisl lusioned wiih French African policies. tHHy

cnE. between bfack Africa anahave endured tha crises ol decolonization, economic decline, and me Socialist party victory In France inare undergoing their most severe test Because oludget cuts and the French withdrawal Irom Chad. This year's sharp reductions follow several years ol gradual declineeak aid levelillion pern mncc France the princfpal Western power in Olack Africa. -

Although France continues to claim Its role In Africaey "re iis statusorld power, il is acutely aware it cannoi fund Its activities at previous levels, French ofliclals now seek tr>share out ihc aid burdens with the IMF and theespite we ifkeltnood mat French influcnco with African clients will dimmisnesuiif





In Qnel

President-elect Noves had emergency appendectomy last

nightas Been in goodPresident presumably

will take over white Neves convalesces.!

planes selllrei yesterday losmallTankar W|rao damaged another loaded tanker Yts

on way Irom Khark_ on Monday.


Iranill place on trial two North Yemenis who hijacked Saudi Arabian airliner to Tehran in earlytill no trial sci 'or lour hijaekersol Kuwaiti airliner lo OecemOer when two US ollidart were Killed.f

Chinese Vice Premie/Pang met with Soviet General Secretary Gorbachev yesterdaytrst mectihg between Chinese official and top Soviet. both expressed desire to fop improve 'e'aKontf^BB

Soviet* allowed prominent rclusenik coupte to leave lor US |ust oe'ore Cnerngnko'sost notable release ol refuseniks in '

two ycarsi

Soulh Africa cabinet ministers' visit to Mozambique yesterday underscores Pretoria's commitment to salvage Nkomail Accord

relations strained recently by continuing

insurgent attacks. Maputo's claims Pretoria still



Top SuVcrot



Special Analysis


Allonsin's visit to Washington next week Is designedenerate support tor his government both Internationally and al homo, Allonsln probably will emphasize his desire to strengthen bilateral relations end seek US backing, lor his eltortUo obtain generous treatment trom International creditors,

Tne President continues to enjoy broad public supportinflation and rising unemployment, according toHis governing Radical Party nas been aided byamong tne opposilion Peronisis. Allonsin's relationsmilitary and laborstrained, however, and in coming monthslikely to (ac_rnouming opposition to necessary economic-

The treaty^ yesterday'

The most important of Allonsin's foreign policy successes to date is the signing ol the Beagle Channel Treaty with Chile, which was Overwhelmingly approvedopular referendum lasl November.

as ratified by the Argentine Senatelose vote


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has been active in the Nonaligned Movement and participated In the six-nation disarmament conference In India earl)

ftnis ySat. [

Hai'oi -siappears to be" Iryirtg"to balance his lies with tha West and tne Third Worlo in order toide spectrum of Argentina*



To Be Ftaisud


jAlfonsin intends toroaC range lith US policymakers.

Ha probably will contend Argentina is trying, despite difficulties, to comply with the IMF austerity program negotiated late last year. Hc will ask that Washington influence commercial lenders to ease terms for debt rescheduling ana new loans.

is likely to request US assistance In resuming tne stalled Argentinenegotiations on tne Falkland Islands.


Central America. Allonsln probably wilt reassertlor tne Contadora process. He may seekthe US will not intervene militarily. Out heoi likelyUS policy

mav argue that hi* nnvArnme- -Nicaragua, which hava receivedr' Argent ihVgVoai" are primarily commercial and are consistent with his tlloris toalanced foreign policy.

Heikely to ask mat lhe US step up (is support lorspread ol democracy in Latin America, particularly in Chile.

He mayew hemispheric

is likely to express fuV support lor the light against narcotics trafficking In Latin America. Alfonsin has been working actively to combat growing cocaine tralflckino in

He may urge intensified arm* conirol efforts by the Superpowers, an issue on -Michis strong.fSJ-ftf

Aiionsin may reiterate Argentina's recent endorsement of safeguards on ,is nuclear exports But I* unMctycceptijxgujros on ihe grounds that they would innioit peaceful nuc-ear flMioprnwi He also may repeal his view mat the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which Argentina has refused lo sign,ountries that possess nuclear weapon*



Special Analysis

Issues in Developing Countries

international financial situation will remain under stressnextr* because of VMnHtyproblems In developing countries. Even to maintainmade thus tar will reou're cooperation and hardcreditors and debtorslimate of favorableconditions. As early ea this year, dltllcutllet Ingoals could lead to noncompliance in some

suspension ol new money, and Increased

tonsions. MM

unsettling ceveiopmen: is tne increasing stridency mm wlucn Latin debtors are airing their financial troubles.eries ot meetings wiih weir creditors. Latin American coun tries .have sought to apply persistent pressure lor additional debt solutions. Jneir cniei goai Is toolitical dialogue on debt ai the highest levelsovernmeni in tne industrial nations

Tha outcome ol the meetings to date suggests that Latin debtors win continue to support joint action so long as it does not threaten their ability lo negotiate individually with creditor Banks ano governments. This year Latin debtors seem even more ready than before to urge changes in tne policies and operations of olliciai and private Western institutions and wilt oe iiKcly to demonstrate this at the IMF/IBRD committee meetings in April. Oeotors see iheir actions as being largely responsible for concessions tney receded Irom commercial banks last year.

challenges to orderly international financing in is-fiS will relate to oeotors" failure to complyn IMF-supported programs and creditors' reluctance to lend new money. Trade protectionism by industrial countries and continued high real interest rales also will oe key Issues. Moreover, because tnese problems may preventtherepeating the progress made lasl year, the tone of (he Latin Oeotors' pronouncements may become more strident,*"



Special Analyst!

Delay In Membership

EC membersmain committed lo bringing Spain and Portugal Into tba Communityut some-otllclals concede that the Impaste over accessiontime-consuming proceduraldelay the new membershipelay probably would plunge ihe Community Into another budget crisis and could complicate the Spanish Government's offoftt robjlc support tor NATOWaW

have stalled since Oeccmber because ECbeen unable to agree on positions on the Issues of (isningand social affairs. Pishing rights lor Spain pose thestumblingblocK; Portugal's negotiations ate

complete, but Lisbon's entry remains lied to MadtiO's.1

At issue is how soon Spain's fishingworld's loyrin' largestbe granted access to EC members' waters. Madridransition period olOf clean seven yearsj


^vhich have substantial

isning inieresis. Tear dan-.ngn to endangered Slocks and favor strict controls through the

Time Running Out

EC Foreign Ministers witlajor effort to resolve their differencesour-day meeting beginning Sunday in Brussels. Oiplomatic reports indicate they are likely to reach agreements on wine and olive oil production as well as welfare benefits for Iberian workers in other EC countries. Trie fisheries question, however, probably win need to be referred to the EC Summit set forarch. Also working to delay the deadline is Greek Prime Ministerhreateto enlargement unless EC members provide new aid for agricultural development In Greece

EC ofliclals believe the issues must be seined in principle by the end of this month to keep the lengthy procedures associated with ratifying lhe membership treaty Irom pushing enlargement past the target date. Mosl of theational parliaments involved could approve ihe treaty by Oecember. but ratification might become an election issue in France and Greece.



Top secret

In France. Ihe campaign (orear's parliamentary election begins tinsnti Gaulhsi candidates may argue tnal enlargement should

an issue in the parliamentary election lhat is due By October.

Pressures on EC Budget

Many EC officials believe lhat entry ins out ol tne question.

so that misimg Ihc deadline neat January would put oil eniry until

1ne-year delay almost certainty would reopen the

debate over EC finances that tentatively was settled last year. The EC

counted on enlargement next year end plannec IO draw

on ihe anticipated increase in resources to cover an estimated

illion shortfall in3 budget, umeas Spam and Portugal are

admitted nest year, me Community is likety to face insolvency once


Spanish Reactions


Spanish ofticiets say publicly ihey can wait until more favorable termsespecially onnegotiated. Tnese statements probably ere intended both io exert pressure on EC members io compromise ano to prepare ine Spanish publicossible delay entry Mi

Madrid has linked EC membership to us continuing supportand Prime Minister Gonzalez probably hopes ioon ihe Ten by claimingelay in EC entry could haveimpact on Spam's commitment io NATO. Spanishlold US diplomatsompteied accessionnouio ensure public support for NATOeferendumyear, even il lhe agreement came4 lo allow membership


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