NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FOR MONDAY 4 MARCH 1985

Created: 3/4/1985

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

Warning Page Deleted

B-3

NIC AH ACUA:

Internal Policy Hardens

Ortega's continuing empnasls on Sendlnlsto flexibility through his peace Initiative may deflect attention from the government's propose!onopolize political power In the National Assembly M Hf>

la attempting to gain Internationalpeace proposals by holding bilateral talks in heads ol state and foreign mm _ _

recently made several unsuccessful attempts to persuade intermediaries lo arrange meeting with Saivador&^residerit Quarts and may iry againew peace

Meanwhile, the Sandinistas last weeKralt staiuie lor the National Assembly mat would grant Onega wide-ranging powers, including the right to issue fiscal and administrate decrees and totate ol emergency without consulting the legislature. Onega would be able to assume ell legislative functions during the emeu.

The statute also gives special powers to paniamenlaryefinedoiillcal parly with ai leastercent of Ihe Assembly'seais. Only "fraciions" would be able to initiate taws, participate in the Assembly directorate or preside over eommitiees, and form part ol special commissions. Inpecial commission would be seLup.to finish drelllng the country's constitution byecember.

Other than me Sandinistas, only the Democraticarty dominated by Sandinista supporters, have more thaneats. The dralt statute proscribes Assem^ members from wlnina another

parly.fM

pany will walk out if the statute is accp'ieo

b3

atassataBBBsWOnega will have another opportunity to push his peace

plan when he visits Brazil next week lor ihe inauguration ol Presidentublic oiler to meet Ouane weeUd lurther Ortega's Initiative, even if ne simply reiterates Nicaragua pesions-fJBLa* fajS

I 9 9 2

The Sandinistas probably will compromise somewhat on ihelr Assembly proposal toossible walkout by opposition parties, but the final result is elmost cerialri to restrict sharply the opposition's ability to challenge them. The regime probably wilt force approval of the measure soon tP permit renewal of the state of emergency In late April "*

crel

41

LEBANON

Continues

bl

Harris pledge io retaliate came In response to Israel's new. harsher policy for dealing withby Shiatheir troops in southern Lebanon. Since ne has never inreataned to attack northern Israel before, his remarks probably were intended to improve his anti-lsraefi credentials before tne Amal poiae-jro electionsmonth. The Amu may not yet oe planning vioienee ag>nst Israel proper,n fist"e south would ea acerb atesentiment among Srua moderates and could chance Amai policy. TheboBah movement almost certainly will attempt*>ciei^e

Snia militants prooabty do not currently have ihe lorces or weaponry to support heavy aitacks on ine northern settlements. Sporadic rocket attacks or determined cross-border raids are possible and would bo difficult to defend against, however.

PjaL"hi.ip.-sbabl,-continuespecially if attacks on Israeli iroops continue atlevel. Heavy terrorist aHacks on the northern settlementsSyrian military movements Into southern

strengthen opponents of the plan, howe-c' b

Ton^ecret

Amendments

Amendment* to ihe Pakistan! constitution proponed Saturday by President Zla would give the President overwhelming power.

Zia announced thai the constitution suspended7 will be reined end martlet late lilted alter tne new NaTioni Assembly. which meetsarch,eries ol amendmenisa^Ptti*amWamSmtkWeJeir'C-ih.tas of the delegates, plus the provincial assemblies, must reject the amendmciti to lorestall

One amendment ratines tne4 referendum electing Zia Presidentther amendments let Ihe President appowi the Prime Minister, service chiefs and provincial governors, veto legislation, dissolve tbe assembly, and can national reterendums on any subject. Zia also wants an amendmentational Security Council with ihe power to recommend Imposition ot martial law toCeni.aassasBsjB> (

bl fc3

pronouncement sets tho stage for an early clash with the new assembly, which Is sure to resist approving the sweeping powers he Is attempting to reserve for himself. The President, however, has moved quickly to block the building ot unltled opposition to his plans. The two-thirds vote requirement Zla has set mokes It unlikely that any of the amendments will be rejected. Aiioving tn<-envies to dobaic^ri^wffciures. moreover, snoutd partly disarm his critics.

9 9 7

Topa^ec^ret

J*

i>3

ighter Pilola

!orwegian Air Foree pJoisslgnediKc civiTalrllnes Jobsecent yeare*ncMr-at Scandinavian Airlines plans to recruit ai least:HHHM me airline also has raised me maximum aye of newly hired pilota. which coutd prompt more Air Force pHots then ever to resign _tq Join me airline. In large oart because of.hortage*

Togat^ret )q$

* Ma'tn iflSS

ToiM*sectet

INDIA: Counterinsurgency In Punjab ^obbbbbsbbbbbbbbbbbbb^^

Punjabaramilitary strike lore* to control violenceTrie move results from criticism ot tbetne Punjab police before tbe Army crackdown in tne MateTne strike force probably is Intended to take overIrom Army units arte* will consist of specialty-earnedfrom the state i b

aJaBBBBBBBaBst The' the ricw force Ihe strongestfar :nat New Delhiiolence to continue andThe government hopes to redeploy Ihe Army, whichlo continue Its aeeunty duties in Punjab, and is likelyany future withdrawal of reoulariroops as evidence thathai returned to normal

First nationwide poM in Poru shows center-lelt presidential candidate Alan Garcia with commanding lead in campaign lorpril electionGarcia falls to win majority oniflrstbatlot. Marxist Alfonso Barranlcs likely opponent in runoll. Saaaaanv

5

Special Analysis

Living Standards

he USSR has Inched towerd Us goal ol matching the US star.dard ol living. Out Its feel per capita consumption Is Stillhird Ot Ihe US level. Nevertheless. Soviet consumers here eeen improvements. Fur-*temple. In overall erms

their diet now nearly matches that In thethough

variety end convenience still tall lar short ol USmost households have electrical appliances.emains light, however, and health care problems have contributed to higher death rates and lower Hie eipectaneles then In the US. Some ot these problems may eeae during Ihe nest tew years, but with economic growth slowing, living standerds probeblymprovehon they did through thes>4aBBaBBBV

Growth in pet capila consumption slowed in. withdeclines In food end nondurable consumer goods. Salesdurables also dropped sharply, causing perto slow even fu'the' in irteBflOs.somewhatecause ot increasedand increased consumption of noncuraoies.is sou Ddcw the level of the

Food and Consumer Durables

The Quality of the food supply has Improved. Soviets still consume more starchy staples than Americans, but more LvesiccK products are now available tocapita consumption of meat has increasedercentven so, Soviet citizens on Ihe average ami eai only half as much meat aa do Americans andarger proportion of protein Irom nonmeai sources. Moreover,In processing and distribution limit the variety of available goods,fresh fruits and vegetables out of

Soviet per capita expenditures for consumer durables are now less thanercent of the US level, but tneyahVave nearly doubledlmost every uS familyefrigerator and af least"one TV set. but only two-thirds of all Soviet families have refrigerators and three-fourths have TVo> lower aa***

Housing and health Show Mixed Gain*

The shortage of housing in the Soviet Union is severe. There has been improvement In the pastears, but about one out ol every five city dwellers still shares living space with unrelated families or single persons^

continued

Living quarltrs are aiao much smaller than in ihe West, in, ino Sovietsational minimum standard tor "healin and decency" ol uroan dwellers5eet by

12housing apace per person. The Sovieis. on average, currently meet this standard, although ihey lag fai oehlnu the US

quare meters compared withquare

The government. seeklng"lo control the demandTor housing, often bars single persons trom waiting lists for apartment housing. At the-same time, however, large government subsidies spur demand by keeping rents down

Until recently, the USSR had made substantial Improvements In health cere. Tho overall level ol health care, however, is deterioraling because Moscow, unwilling toarger share ol the budgei to medical services. Is having Increasing difficulty coping with ihe alcoholism and hypertension besetting an older, more urban, and more industrial population. The death rale is now higher than the US rate. The USSR is me only major industrial nation toower life expectancy now thanears ago: the estimated life expectancy of males has fallen fromears5 toears currently. US male life expectancy rose Iromears toears during the same eeasBasaTa*

Prospects tor Improvemente Limited

The USSR historically has given the consumer low priority in the allocation of national resources. This has enabled levels of investment and defense to rise above US levels and Gnp to grow Iromoercent of US GNPut It has held per ca consumption to only about one-third o! that in the US.

The rising expectationsew generation not hardened by the sacrifices endured during World War II and the postwar reconstruction may Increase pressure for faster growth in consumption. Soviet loaders recognize that Improvement in living standards Is necessary to maintain worker productivity and satisfaction, as shown by their conilnueoVupport for national food programs and by recent efforts to provide Improved services and mora quality consumer goods, They do not sppear io have shifted resources from other sectors, however,rojected slower economic growth Olear0 wii:_rnatc progress in the consumer area difficult.

b5

Original document.

Comment about this article or add new information about this topic:

CAPTCHA