NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FOR 15 DECEMBER 1984

Created: 12/15/1984

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or-U Maneuvering. Notta

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Iran-WMlom Europe;MouMlrta

Colombia: Noc-Mlatlons Wllri trisurgems

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GAl VAOOH

Dual Ii, It trteneuveilng IO tpllt Ihe "iCHl-/HfM from

flie lif fn preparation lor thmMgrch election, buranvnial potential eomplll

The rubng Christian DernocraU era rBBgoUatlrig with tho moderate rlghllst NationalParly lo prevent Roberto D'AubisissorfsNationalist Repuola^ns Irom mienoina rnfiuavoce ovum nwnlelptil and legislative affairs. Ibei,adoaM.exiubi."ssQn rvncajjojfie, lacked other sources oi

The ClwIstlan DemocratE currently hold mayoralties In onlyl Iheunicipalities and navef theeats In ihe Assembly. An Balance withjcfUat'Onists. nowevtn. would prodjee e

i Cnnsriari Dewnoouis en(oy several potential adVarrtagrra. Moderate Conciiiato-tits prefer to avod dealing with tne ortrame rlgfil because It undercuts their nope* ol occupying the political conier and becoming Iho country's second-Hrgest party. Quarto nlTiosufficient ministerial posts and party preshgt; lo swing

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i. Ideological concerns and petty bicheeingChristian Democraticnd couldoncilia!lorwjl* resent Doarte'8 fa*hjrenckidehb> Initial governrnoril knaup or io con:ult with inem on kgf dWoovcwr*

Such resentment was refected In recem rightist collaboration in passing en electoral law with proviHons aimed specifically at

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KOREA-SOUTH KOREA: Dialogue To Roiumo

North Korea agreed yostordey to resume separaie economic and humanitarian lalks with South Korea rtoxl month. P'yongyengcheduled meeting evher this month because of tho tension Surrounding tne detectionoviet tourist at Penmunjori In late arcrweet'Oe* Seoul ts ea ported to reer> - erslion of roturnoddiscussions onanuary and Red Cross talks onm

a^BBtSaaBBsi' North Korean media also continue to push Pyongyang's longstanding proposal for tripartite talks with me US and South Korea. Tho North Koreans probably believe, however, thaintorosl the US In tnls proposal they must Mow.further progress In diroci dealings with Seoul*

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Brief

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gas Ma* hai damaged Indian Conartna Party's election prospects In dozen ne*Qhbonncj const rtusnces . pposition likely to gain from wfcrjajy held belief that locsi Congress leaders lied during ens-sssass*!.

has lifted Iravei ban on democratic opposition apparently In responseressure from Spanish.Venezuelanandinistas, however, alternate restrictions with lleiiotMy lo keep Opponents off balance]

Europe

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Spanish Prime Mirwstor Gonzalez at opening of Sooaist Party Congress cased tor acceptance of NATOnd aMndonrnent of statist eccewrrWc epproach .eport on governmentseired by some delegates, but approved Byen i ssaeTaV

(UROPE;

Operelion*

Ttjfi recent terrorist fNhMnli, the an orf fn ftavernber lo

fromo moiur In Roma, arid rfie bomfj/noi falmonfh of

Iraqi diplomatic -efifcfe* fn Affiant, may Indlealt that tVeatorr>

Europe Incrtnilnglr willlla Of attacks By franfen-apon

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Tighter security around Western embassies In ine Middle East may be complicating itjnonel ettecks there, encouraging the Iranians lo look elsewhere. Pro-Irani an terrorists face few restrict ions on travel within, to. or from Western Europe Moreover, the network Of banianposts and barton-sponsored cut oral and refiglouS Canters trrroughoul Western Europe <sand well pieced to draw on tno iirat-r- banian end Middie ii astern student ands residing triete

Western Europe alsoreat array of templing targets. The

region Is homoumorous anti-Khomeini exiles. Including tefUtlt

and members ol the lorrnar royal family and Its supporters. There also

are numerous Iraqi diplomatic missions as well as those* of Ihe US and

the (edlil-es and officials ol several West European governmonit that

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Qwnltl businessman was wihuhMm) In Spain, and the Islamic Jihad claimed credit

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audi tourist was kitted in Spain, and credit was claimed by Islamic Jihad

ovember seven Lebanese arrested by Italian police In Rome apparentlyplanning an attack against trte US Embassy there.

6 December lour irerncles betongmg to the Iraqi Embassy i' Atl aiware bombed tJaVasaanV

Several West European governments have been concerned enough to lane preventive action Inor example the Frertch

CloseC the Iranian Cuttu'Blaris, expeikngranians.

Including three Iranian diplomats, (or unethical activities Italy. Spam.

end the UK havo arrested or expelled Iranians or other Muslims (hat

thoy believe were Involved in -

Outlook

Iran's aggros si valy anii-Wostarn outlook, coupled with its limited conventional military capabilities, encourage It IO rationalize the use ol terrorism to cnastlsehe West It regards as enemies After decades of what Tehran sees as Western attacks on tie Middleerrorist campaign In Western Europe offers Iran notay to ovenge post wrongsethod to influence directly the policies ol Ms more powerhrt Western -

the Middle East will inspired lerronsm Jrani( increase.

remain the main arena (or Iranian-ivjty in Western Europe Is likely lo

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Special Analy.ls

Pressures

OPEC'f^fmlBitnuml mlntatarlal moating on Wadnatday will attempt to atam downward praaauraa that threaten thoohclml prlco afrwclure.lrong dfepfer ol dltclpllno within tha organization, tharorowing poiaJOWr that OPEC will be forced to towai prices

F aiiure of domana to redound asIn pail lo unseasonably mildhe Northernthe unwfllngnesa of OPEC memoers both to adhere to lower production levels sei In late OctoOer and to refrain from price discounting have reinforced the belief ol buyers thot OPEC cannot defend Its current official prices. This conviction has. In (urn, further weakened the market because mosi buyers have chosen to draw downventortes In anticipation ot lower pricesesult, spot prices are now mce than J1 per barrel below official prices for moat crudes

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The Current Price Problem

OPEC had Indicatedroposal lo realign its official price structure will be discussed at the meeting. Ihe curiam structure does not accurately reflect the difference In market values for light and heavy crudes, it has forced disadvantaged light crude producers, such as the United Arab Err*ales and Nigeria to oner discounts lo boost sates These discounts undermine Ihe official price structure end are partly responsible to* the recent sharppot prices

among OPEC members for en increased share of the market will mako agreement on any price realignment proposal difficult lo achieve, parllculaily In view of theli growing revenue needs. Failure lo resolve distortions In the price structure, however, will aggravate frictions between producers of Irjht and heavy dudes, further undermining ma-kel confidence In OPEC'so stabilize prices'-

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Even It OPEC muddles througti the current drfticultl maintainingenchmark iti not lirlghl.

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Special Analysis

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BiMtdlng on'iiolgnod oarllar thl*(fie acvornmont recanto pa nod format negotiation! with thru* ol tho countrfa tow* motor Inturgentlthough Itrtinolfea fine peace mill rotult, thm truce ehould hold tor ml feeit ffteseveral rnonfns bocntno both atdeu believe ll aerves ffiefr ahon-term /nfesesfs.fflga,

President Btnancur. who hasettlement wilh the goerrilias Ns majc peloraty. is deternuned to prevent me truce from con.ing down before he leaves office in Augustast montn. he author una the initiationnational dialogue" with the guerrillas on proposals lot sweeping reforms mm

Colomola's rap'dty growing economic problems, however, limit Retancur'S ability lo finance land reform and Other aid programs. The determination ol congress lo protect lis logbaallveo restricts has ability to offer concessions to the guerrillas. Consequently, mile progress has been made so far, and Betancur is facing mounting cjtllcism from Important Infernal groups (or coddling the

Guerrilla Strategy

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tBthof Apriltaken Ihc load on lite political front byandidate for Itie presidential electionoldlrig rallies, end working lo strengthen labor support

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cease-lire Is UKely to conllnue lor ai least several monthsIhe Importance Belancur places on his reputation as athe apparent belief by most guerrilla leadersy needj*je*

Neverihetess, the President's political skies increasingly will be tested as he responds to grrjwtng pubMcerrt>nu>ng rural violence and the^ftarnanda of firebrand guerrilla leaders, some of flready are trveatentngesume the armed struggle

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Original document.

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