MIDDLE EAST ASIA BRIEF FOR 21 JANUARY 1987.

Created: 1/21/1987

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

FRO'i: ODI/OJ CONTENTS

CONCERN AMONG PERSIAN GULF ARABS

ISLAMIC SUMMIT DEVELOPMENTS

INDIA: OFFENSIVE BY SIKH EXTREMISTS

FATAH'S INVOLVEMENT IN TERRORIST ATTACK

AFRICA: POLITICAL CRISIS IH COLOREDYEMEN-SOUTH YEMEN: POSSIBLE RENEWEOBRIEF

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I. IRAN-IRAQ: CONCERN AMONG PERSIAN GULF ARABS

IRAQI rORCES HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO KEEP IRAN FROM GAINING GROUND EASi OF AL BASRAH. RAISING FLAPS AMONG OTHER PERSIAN GULF STATES THAT THE CITY MAY FALL.

THC CULF STATES HAVE MA INTAI NED THEIR cINANCIAL ANDOf IRAQ.

COUNCIL SECRETARY GENERAL BISHARA HAS URGED THT US ANO OTHERTO CALL PUBLICLY FOR AI

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BlRAN PROBABLY WILL LAUNCH NEW ATTACKS IN ITS EFFORT TO BREACH IRAQI LINES. BAGHOAO PROBABLY CAN PREVENT THE FALL Of AL BASRAH. BUT. BECAUSE TEHRAN IS KEEPING THEM ON THE DEFENSIVE. THEY ARE HAVING TROUBLEONCERTED COUNTERATTACK TO REGAIN LOST TERRITORY. AIR AND MISSILE ATTACKS ON THE CIVILIAN POPULATIONS IN EACH COUNTRY ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE.

TO REPULSE IRAN

FEARSSTATES OF AN IRANIAN

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THE FALLBASRAH AND THE OCCUPAT

THE OOORMILITARY PRESSURE

ESPECIALLY KUWA PROMPT THE GU COOPERATION.

UWAIT-IRAN: ISLAMIC SUMMIT DEVELOPMENTS

THE ISLAMIC CONFERENCE SUMMIT PROBABLY WILL CONVENE IN KUWAIT MONDAY AS SCHEDULED OESPITE THE RECENT SABOTAGE OF KUWAITI OIL FACILITIES AND CONTINUED HEAVY FIGHTING AROUND AL BASRAH.

lAT LEAST THREE

SIMULTANEOUS EXPLOSIONS OCCURREO AT KUWAIT'S AHMADI OFFSHORETERMINAL. HAQL AL MAQWA1 QILFICLO. ANO MlNA 'A8 DALLAHTHE EXPLOSIONS SHUT DOWN ONE SEA ISLAND BERTH ANDHQ OHE HAS CLAIMED RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE EXPLOSIONS.1CIALS ARE DENYING THEY ARE TERRORIST RELATED.

AN PRIME MINISTER MUSAVI RECENTLY TOLD' THAT THE SUMMIT MIGHT BE OlSPUPTED BY VIOLENCE AND THAT SLAHIC**JIKAD. THE IRANIAN-BACKED SHIA GROUP HOLDING HOSTAGES IN LEBANON. WARNED KUWAIT LASJ_ WEEK IT WOULO TAKE NEGATIVE ACTION IF THE SUMMIT CONVENED.

MOST ISLAMIC HEAOS OF STATE PLAN TO ATTEND THE SUMMIT. ALTHOUGH SYRIAN PRESIDENT ASSAD'S PARTICIPATION IS STILL IN DOUBT ANO IRAN PROBABLY WILL NOTELEGATION.

THE EXPLOSIONS IN KUWAIT MAY HAVE BEEN INSTIGATED BY IRAN. THERE ARE MANY IRANIAN SYMPATHIZERS IN. KUWAIT AMONG NATIVE SHIAS AND FOREIGN WORKERS EMPLOYEDi TIES: IRANIAN-BACKED

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TfRBORISTS PROBABLYiUSPOr<Sl9LE 'OR SlfliLAf

THE DAMAGE IS NOTCE KUWAITI EXPOK'S 0 AGOliT ILLIOMAT.

S. OTHER TERRORIST NTERESTS ARE AT

DESPITE KUWAIT'S STRICT SECURITY HEASUF INCIOENTS ARE LIKELY. AND USI PARTICULAR RISK.

IRAN NAS BEEN TRYINC TO FORCEOSTPONEMENT ANO CHANCE Of LOCATION (OR THE CONFERENCE ANO PROBABLY HOPES THAT SABOTAGE ANO IRANIAN MILITARY ADVANCES NEAR ALLYILOMETERS) FROH KUWAIT'S BORDER--Wl LL DISCOURAGE ATTENDANCE. BECAUSE THE HEAVILY DEFENDED CONFERENCE SITE WOULDlFFICULT TARGET. IRANIAN-BACKED GROUPS HAY TRY TO EMBARRASS KUWAIT BY ATTACKING EASIER TARGETS-SUCH AS 0THER OIL FACILITIES. CAFES. OR SECURITY INSTALLATIONS. '

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PUNJAB POLICE ANO PARAMILITARY FORCES EHTEREO THE GOLOEN SlKHS' HOLIEST SHRINE--LAST WEEKEND AND ARRESTED SO SIKHS, INCLUDING SIX MILITANT LEADERS. CANOHI SUMMONED PUNJAB CHIEF MINISTER BARNALA TO NEW DELHI LAST fRI DAY TO DISCUSSTHE DEMANDS OF MODERATEHS .

AGUE LI; OELH

IARNALAREAKAWAY WIS pifth HAVf TO POSTPONE PROTESTS DESIGNED TO F'RCE CONCESSIONS FROM NEW

'THE POLICE SWEEP ANO THE ARREST OF SEPARATIST LEAOERS SUGGEST NEW OELHl IS OETERMINEO TO KEEP MQOERATE SIKHS IN CONTROL OF THE GOLOEN TEMPLE ANO TO PREVENT THE EXTREMISTS FROM ENTERING THE TEMPLE ON REPUBLIC DAY ASAST YEAR. NEW OELHl'S PROMISE TO REVIVE THE STALLED TALKS ON MOOEftATE SIKH OEMANDS WILL HELP BARNALA TO OEFLECT ATTACKS FROM MOREME RIVALS IN HIS OWN PARTY EVEN I* NO ARE rU^-L'J.J J |

THE INCREASE IN VIOLENCE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ANO COULD PEAKARGE ATTACK ON OR NEAR REPUBLIC DAY. NONETHELESS. CANOHI IS UNLIKELY TO DISMISS BARNALA OR TO REIMPOSE NEW DELHI'S DIRECT RULE. ESPECIALLY AMIGNS OF COOPERATION BETWEEN BARNALA ANO HIS RIVALS. EVEN IF BARNALA IS UNABLE TO STEM THE SURGE IN EXTREMIST ATTACKS, GANDHI IS LIKELY TO INCREASE THE PRESENCE OF PARAMILITARY FORCES IN PUNJAB BEFORE HE CONSIDERS DISMISSING H l!

6. PLO: FATAH'S INVOLVEMENT IH TERRORIST ATTACKS

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OT; IZ2 JAN 6-

ST IN1 AN MEMBER OFPECIALT AN SECUPtTT CROUP WHO WAS ARRESTED IN CASABLANCA IN AUGUST HAS ENIOR AIDE TO PLO CHAIRMAN ARAFAT IH THE BOMBIhG.QF TwA 0 tN APRIL

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REVEALED THAT THE FATAH SPECIAL OPERATIONS ORGANIZATION, HEADEDARAFAT LOYALIST. COLONEL HAWARI. EBANES! WOMANOUT THE ATTACK AND THAT HAWARI'S OPERATIVES IN EGYPT GAVE EXP' [A .: 01 HAWARI 'S

QPfRATlVES IN MOROCCO HAS FUELED INUNSl WITHIN FATAH OVER HAWARI'S CLOSE TIES TO ARAFAT AND ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY ThAT ARAFAT IS INVOLVED AGAIN IN INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM. y ^

,THE TECHNOLOGY OF THE BOMBING DEVICE RESEMBLED THAT USED "BY THE RADICAL PALESTINIAN AY ORGANIZATION. WHOSE FORMER OPERATIVES HAVE BEEN WORKING WITH HAWARI'S GROUP- THERE IS NC EVIDENCE THAT EXPLICITLY CONFIRMS ARAFAT'S DIRECT INVOLVEMENT Afll'S OPERATIONS. BUT ARAFAT'S CLOSE AND LONGSTANDING ASSOCIATION WITH HAWARI IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SUSPICION THAT ARAFAT WAS INVOLVED AND TO FUEL CONTINUING FRICTION BETWEEN HIM ANO MODERATES IN FATAH.ER>.ATIO*AL TERRORIST OPERATIONS UNDOUBTEDLY WILL ALSO FURTHER COMPLICATE ARAFAT'S RELATIONS WITH SOMlARAB STATES. PARTICULARLY TUNISIA AND JORDAN. TO AVOIO EViN MORE SERI RIFTS WITHIN FATAH OVER HAWARI, ARAFAT IS LIKELY TO RlSIMCT HAWARI'S OPERATIONS TO ISRAELI AND SYRIAN TARGETS.

OUTH AFRICA: POLITICAL CRISIS IN COLORED COMMUNITY

PRESIDENT BOTHA'S PRIVATE ULTIMATUM MONDAY TO THE TROUBLESOME LEADER OF THE COLORED LABOR PARTY HAYRISIS IN THE TRICAMERAL PARLIAMENT. BOTHA REACTEDWIMEGREGATED BEACH EARLY THIS MONTH BY LABOR PARTY LEAOER AND CABINET MEMBER ALAN HENORICKSE BY DEMANDING THAT HE APOLOGIZE. RESIGN HIS POSITION CALL FOR AN ELECTION IN THE COLORIO PARLIAMENTARY CHAMBER.

HENORICKSE ALSO HAS RECENTLY CRITIClZEO NEW IESTRICTIONS AND THREATENED TO REVIEW HIS PARTY'S PARTICIPATION PARLIAMENT IF THE GROUP AREASPROTECTS SEGREGATED RESIDENTIAINOT SCRAPPED. fJIBatm

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ALTHOUGH BOTHA PROBABLY OOES NOT WANT TO CREATEontrdverSy BEFORE THE ELECTION EXPECTED IN THE SPRING. NiS ULTIMATUM REFLECTS HIS INTOLERANCE OF AMY OPPOSITION. EVEN FtOPl DOC U PARTIES THAT PARTICIPATE IN THE GOVERNMENT, HENDRICKSE WHOSE RECENT STANDS PROBABLY HAVE ENHANCED HIS POPULARITY IN THE COLORED COMMUNITY. FACES THREE POLITICALLY ^ACCEPTABLE OPTIONS^ ANAPOLOGYWOULD BE HUMILIATING;Vi?,TIIoF REOPEN THl DIVISIVE ISSUE C' WHETHER TO PARTICIPATE UTURE THAT EXCLUDES BLACKS. HENOR'CKSE IS LIKELY TO STALL FOR TIME. BUT IN THE END HE PROBABLY HAS NO CHOICE BUT TO .TTEMPT^ACE-SAVING APOLOGY TO AVOID EXPULSION FROM THE CABlxf'

B. NORTH YEMEN-SOUTH YEMEN: POSSIBLE RENEWED RELATIONS

N RESUMING

NORTH YEMENI PRESIDENT

RELATIONS WITH SOUTH. YEMEN.'

H YEMl ES AND OTHER

H THE SOUTH

SAL IH HASMIBMtffAGREEO IN PRINCIPLEIS SOCIALIST PART* LEADiR AL-BAYO TO OtSCUSS BILATERA SSUES. ALTHOUGH_HO_pATE HAS BEEN SET. MEANWHILE: SALIH WAS TO MEETEMENI INTERIOR MINISTER IN SAN

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CALLING FOR US TO INCREASE PAYMENT FOR COMMUNICATIONSlQUIDATE MOMROVJA'S BI LATERAL. IMF S ECONOMY DETERIORATES. PRESIOEN1 DOE MAY DEMAND LARGEOR OTHER US FACILITIES, .INCLUDING PORT. AIRFIELD RIGHT-

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