Warning Page
ContanU
Iraq. Iraqis LoSrng Ground
Rebel Leaders Sac* Accommodationlaly Vatican: Resciila Of Jarurelskis Visit
ATO; Probkams Withrmsed
Aftermath of Mutiny
Oppoaflkon Tearllng the Constitution
Francei llrty*-Chad Military
Sunnis "earner Fight
Eapedltkyasry Force) taking Shape
Call for Oenersl Strlka uvoalarta-UB: Propaganda Program
TO
10
II
Anarreee
China: Gang's Options for arVerraair*
Stronger Military Action Ukaiy
12
M
1
Losing Ground
f A' daa/an It Im Irom ore. nntf couldMlo aita.rbec. cka.ce.
araeaja,cadim,A.
h-anl finer ah aJong tha Shan MArab Over ttm warn*arid, aa tho heat, triad to tmprov- iiml, defensivr.ehranIt had begun In* third phaee Of ita offen.lve yesterday and claimed to Mb.r.ced several kucer>eters. Iranian
l'o'iwiarsi I
an ecAtevN nothing mora than holcWig HaKhave vron an Important victory Tha fightingkracvl raaarvaa and setting tha ataga for additionalfartarartvara along lha ho.dm. Tha nearly contlrxioo.to advance probably hava contributed to Iraq's Inabilitya successful major
Tehran haa long baaavad that haotatlng Al Bear eh aroutdrrmbofc. aa area as rnf-tary.o Iraq. Iranian Wiamerufc on Sunday refarrad lo kens la lent operation"undoubieOry grave and la* more crucial" lhan other defaaii Iran haa Inflict ad. Iran's success will bolsteraa Aaaembty Speakerfavor aggressive military action and mil weaken thoea who have emphasized tha risks of majorictory also would slam, al least temporarily, popular dtsgruntlemenl ova* the war end acooorrac hardshlpa. Iran aMM also try to exploit Us success to araakan ihajaaofve of tha Persian Guff Arab states to continue supporting Iraq *sMHn*J V' ^
If Baghdad Is delam-lnad to remove the Irafttan threat to Al Baarjh and turn tha bat He around.ave to act soon. Tha Iranians are atlll vulnerable to air and artilleryand many of thoir units have sufferedven wtth reinforcements they would be
to order theranians but may decide, that tha importance Of Al Basrah-Iraq ataking greateruccaaaful Iraqi counterattack could double Iranian Msaes and might erase the perceived miliary and Domical gains from this oflonslvu aaaaaaaV
continued
k
anuary 1M7
A stalemate al appfoilmalafy ihe coram locations outalda Al Beared appear* Iras moat fc'ery outcome for now and around be an important Iranian victory- 'raq probably can coniatn the Iraiaana. bui the chanoMucceaeful Iraqi countaratiac* cerMraah dally. Tehran may order otJrtar probMg attacfca. but continued heavy fiflMlng around Al Bear ah probatory amft Ha optlona eiaawhere during the wimor campaign Mason. The heavy aapanottuia of personnel andg Kjcceaaes n
c>ighdadam unary but highly danger ou* outcome if Iraqirraatak aathm fra/Wana to continue to work their way toward the cfty tn email Increment* It Iranian toroaa ahoutd Hank the main Iraqihe Iraq* rnlgrtt panic and withdraw. Probleme of .lengthy and ktlenee altaoa. however, probably Hal limit Iran'* ability so capture Al Baarah.oUapee ot the Iraqihe uty fawVAVavbjBfttaVJa^VaaaV.
20 January Ififl?
See*modal.
, return ofeaderrta Mlcaregue mould provide mtenegu*ate* propmgertda victory while dmmeglwg lhe mnti SendtrtUtm* eftortt to Improve their3
In southern Nicer*
Eden Peetora. [orme.lo rncat Sandmialn
may
iPastora allllubstantial popular followlnoand may calculate Ihai hla relum would anhancoaiature. Ha at op pod fighting for lha rebels larl springha haa no future aa a
River* aaoa him aad aa the leader oMhe easl coastUalua ha farted to achieve aa the Insurgent group command or. He also mayo capitalize on provisions In the new Conslitulioii Ihat repo* ledfy grant the oust coast limited aulur^my.^fahjaaa-. (
Tha return of aflhar rebel leaderropaganda bo name lor Managua The regime couldeturn aa evidence of Its pluralist eystem Tha Sandinistas could uao Riveras returnreate tha Image that they are wINng lo negotiate wtth lha Indian rebate when in lad Ihey hava yet to tale, with the largest Indian organlzalion. fjpg j
Militarily, the rebate are lUely to benefit Irom Ihe departure of either leader because both hava opposed rebel unificationnd were tnefToctrvo commanders Poetically, however. Pastora and.esser extent. Rivera arenown In lot or national circles, and thear defection from Ihe rebel movement would discredit the rebeta' image domr-il.miiy ana aS'catf^fjyjlHJHMMBV 3
afj
n"*euite of JUru*Vhut
mitetefheMcyrneertixefaftrs rfahf M> ifem Mat wee*sodeaf awccaaa. miihoua" thm PWIuh tmmdmr feffeef to secore fee VmtlCmWt eotnmltmmmt tm dlfUotrtmlhc reoognlf fon or tncreesed ttmllmne*efee>ca ^aaajsajjas,
ja/uzetskl's visit provoked fewer demanalratlona'than Italian leaden had expected; press oorrsvasntary was generaeyn wide-ranging official talks wtfh Italian taadatra. Jennelikl played down lhe Importance ol Solidarity but Implied that tha hberaJctatlon now under way In Pc-and woutd goomestic opponents did not Question the nature ol the regime. Although jeruzefsfci appealed for economic assistance In the form of Joint venture* and new credits. Italian Prime Minister Craxl sard that expended economic relet lona would depend on continued Polish progress on human rightaaffJJpl
Jaruzelsxls
-JM with the Popeandid exchangeey ftu^his
desire to Improve Church-state relations and Pound's record on human rights, but he asked the Pop* to show understanding for the 'difficulte must maintain because of Poland's political-airateglc position. The Pop* nonetheless stressed that Warsaw must continue to HberaUx* andhat the establishment of dlplometlc relatione would be the "crown" of Improved Church-state reunions,eans of encouraging them. MgMmmm '
V> "0 parties am akeryasi lha visit" mod**!
success jarureiakl probably will seea enhancing his stature at home and as finally ending Poland'a political isolation In the Weet. luilaii leaders, particularly Craxl. ereigh of relief that the vteii did not create poahfcel problems, but they probably also appreciated the opportunity IO lecture Jarufetski on human rights on behalf of th* Weal sfJsssaaaV V"
The Vatican at caudou*fy optimistic that the meeting win hasp to alleviate *ome ot the pressures on tho Polish people and on the Churcn ki Poland It will seek to follow upwnen the Pop* visitsune *aaPsaBBsas*aaaB^ssJ|p -y
With Conventional Arm. Control
Frinirh /nefafeace on claim link* Mi.m. neaTier*.
and th., .
o'igh-level
m'h" P'ev-nfd the Allience
French probably
bey achieve ?
closer (Ink to CSCE Parte may oven hope tt canesolution ol
^gbeoun. thereby allowinger freedom of action
Other NATO
V
cusjlons soon, and a 'oo closely assoclaied'withFrance will resist such arguments. If French,ho other Allies will fee. Increasingly vXah eloBrussels
b3
ECUADOR: Aftarmolri ol
Army Commanderpusovormutlrfy" and tbetwo presidentialPresident
ordero to movelaDTa airfield. re-areeeMJofmerCommander Vaigaa. and lira th* peasant Air
V>3
opposition pod las triad to remove. FODroa-Cordero In an extraordinary session of the Chamber of Ropreeanlatlvoa on Friday' Put Ihe move was blocked by tha [aroesl party In the leftist bloc.
has promised not to take any retaliatory action, but. If Vargas prolongs the crisis in any way. tha Preaidant may give In to military pressure. If tha legislature tries toon the laieatexample by censuring tho govornrnant whan ft reconvenescouldon Iron tat which has already threatened to shut It doan;
NICARAGUA Oppoolfk*ft toatirvfl tha CcmaNtwtkon
Domaatlc opponents of the Nlcaraguan Governre teetlrtg lha Hmlts ofoktranoa since tho suspension of the country's newut Ion al guarantees The pubaShev of La Pronsetho .opposiPon paper shut down by the SanoanaytaapWMtkamft eaaaBBBBBBaatW 'hat an abbreviated edition was to be sentgovernment oanaors on Friday and that aha expected tha regime to deny permission to publish. Opposillon groups took advantage of International madia interest In the promulgation of lha Constitution recently to hold three street demons!rations. Tha Sandinistastate of emergencyconetttullorial ediatory aha* signing the near*chartee. eTeaaaaaV "3
> net Sandlnlstaa probably will enow soma axpraaMonbul wii damp down If (ha opposition appears to baByeaction by Ihe government, thahopoe to discredit tha new Constitution and ted una ll a_ 1 lor the regime
bo
f HANCC-LIBYA CHAD:ownnll
Franc* soon will begin sending anWriion Inloecision based partly on Chiefnmer>oar1lons totfowtng his visll to N'DJemejiaapparently
asked Saulnlor lor France to provide antiaircraft and antitank weapons,est Ions equipment, transport eitori. food, and fuel lor his fore
The decisionlgndkcani change In how the
French view Hebre'e activity ai me north and tn what ihey are witling to do Io help him. The aid apparently la intended lo help Habre prepare for an expected Libyanregain lerrltory north ofh |
LEBANON: 8ur.nl* Reenter Fight
Sunni mimta groupa are taking advantage of the currant fighting between Shias and Paiestinlans to reorganlie and to conduct smalt-scale military actions against Syrian military personnel end Shia Amal mllttlamen in WastmmmWrnrntt^
Murabrtun mllltla, theof Ihe Sunni mfmias unTil II was crusheds again holding regular meetings and la recalling former Murabttun members to Beirut. The Sunni groupa are also behind dairy Incidents of sniping and email explosions against Amal and Syrian military personnel. The head of the largest Sunni group In southern Lebanon. Mustafa Saad. escaped ar/assasslnatlon atternpt Sunday near an Amal>
^fJeMMajOjj-Tne cam pa war has pushed lhe Lebanese Sunnts closer to Ihe Palestinians,tronger threat io the Syrian position In Lebanon. The Sunnla may eventually try to assassinate high-level Amal officials or senior Syrian military and Intelligence officers. The will further aggravate Sunnt-Shlo tensions."
anuary
T: IipMHImn Force Taking
lha help ol Sovietrying supplies and weapons lo support the troops il Is Bondingha South African-backed RENAMO
Frontline Stales have long pressured Tanzaniawhich haaroopa fighting RENAMOThe Tanxanlandeployment Is likelyseveralwilltrictly defensiveMozambican forces for offensive operatlona In ZambeziDespite foreign help, sendingubstantiallyto Moiamblque'ls likelyush Tanzania'! spendinglimits epecihed In Its agreement (sal August with the IMF andnow austerity measures and Incyeaaad indebtedness to Icountries and
ROMANIA: Coll foe OtfWil Strike
_ |ha* received copies'ol acallingeneral strike fn lha Romanian capitalTho manifesto, in tho formhain loiter. ciaimsJd In i'.OOO copies.lo
ava been distributed.unable to dalarmlno how many people are aware Of tha llyar. which Mates thai It does not oppose tho Communist regime but demands the resignation of PresidentMa*J
. Tha Claims may be exaggerated, but evendistribution would make IhLs the largest knownIn Romaniacattered strikes, workabsenteeism have Increased In response lo harshwhich have boon worsened by lhe bitter winter.would quKkly crock down on an attempted general atrlke.of retribution will hold down the size of any protest. Amight encourage wider acts olo but is unlikely tochange In leadership In tha near
ropaganda Program
a broad propaganda campaign.
by ot ethnic minorities
directed at USIs intended to counter
tens In tire US onatf
'Yugoslavia has long had an exaggerated loar of emigre activity, and Ils tnleiligenoe eervlce devotes considerable resources to monitoring and disrupting emigre groups In the US. Belgrade's bollof that Ihe US la looking lor openings to AlbaniaYugoslavia accuses of instigating unrest In Its Albanianprobably heightened Yugoslav anxiety. The Yugoslavs have used similar ropaganda tactics in tho past, but ihey probably now bollevs recant high- level contacts wild US offlciolaafgnal greoterrecopttvlt Washington lo Yugoslav poslltc
b3
- if inviledPrSSvOenc lo MOKO>l" poicee on umM war. PLO evident In TASSgmmti and reported arrests} Embassy employeesies.
Two ScMitfi Kar-an pc4lcernen cnergsd in deem of student dlaeldenl during questioning last. government apparently trying lo defuse opposition party, human rights groups' demands lor special mqukry Into police torture.*-
Kong slashed its equivalent of prime rataercent . trying lo dampen demand for Hong Kong dollar fueled by rumore of US pressure to revalueong Kong-US currency peg becoming difficult to maintain j"
ten leecareow* because ol human rights .ect-rt aad e'readr declining, bui The Hague is Managua's largest West Europeanutch Lkery to Increase aid to Central American <
Hi*
Cyprtol Presldant. Afghan
establish diplomaticyprtanou may wash to reward Soviet InIsrael In Cyprus, court domesticoncern about international reaction will probably derail pian.i
Jeaaary
Special Analysis
Options forNow
Done Xiaopingifficult choice In replacfngfitemler Zhao Zhjang. who has now Mcorn* Acting General Secretary ea well ea Premier. Although thereumber of candidates, each baa serlctum drawbacks, end Deng may choose lo pott pone amy changes. Hie decision will be an Important Indication of tne direction be plant for tbe reform program end of the balance of toreee et the top. asvaefjr*y
H Zhao remains Premlor lor an oKlanded portod. It would Indlcaiaaw power relationships are not felling and that Deng la uneasy about appointing any of lhe available candidates. Many Chinos* would conclude there am Irreconcilable divisions In the leadership thai could threaten stability and lhe continuity ol reform policies. In addition. Zhao's holding both the top party and government posts would undercut the separation ol government and party functions that Deng repeatedlystressedey reform goal " "
The* Cewsdkdataa
A quick flu for Deng would be lo appoint senior Vice Premlor Wan U. Wan has the qunrmcatkms and tha aenfortty and la generally well respected. Hisaa aIndicate that Dangbuying time and that tho leadership cannot agron on nny of ihe younger 3 '
Ihe choice of Vice Premier LIaccording to the rumor min. currently has tnewould Indicate that Dong Intends to stow the reform process significantly. Tho appointment Of LI. which Zhao probably does noi favor, would suggest that Zhao's power has been restricted and that Dong is listening to arguments of more conservative loaders that reform needs to be restrained. Ifjflfg)
U Rulhusn, mayor o! Tlonlln. has also emergedandidate for the premiership. LI Rulhuan has Ilea IO some supporters of Hu Ysobsng but also Is dose to Zhao end has Impressed Dong. Although his sudden elevallon might cause resentment among other, older leaders, he Is an attractive candidate who fits Deng's reformtechnically competent activistood record In economic administration. LI might be brought tonother trial post and later move up to premier.Y V? y
continued
1
*>
Vic- Premie- Tieniege ol Zhao and an ardent advocate of economic retorma. wowld be the firel choice ofconomic reformera. Tieneppointnvanl would be Intandeo-ro signal thai Deng favors continued innovation end experimentation In the ecc**omfce nefd and that he wishes lo reatrtct tadout from Hut daajrrdesal lo the poftllcal realm ft would also euggeef that the party old guard had notMa Inttuence as much aa many progress-ve reformers now leer However. Tien probably leeks Ihe leadership qualities necessary for the top governosition; he fiee no higher educailon. la unpopular wHh traditionalist party adders, andackluster Image "atteaWessaV V? -5
Qiao Shi. the final candidate, wortied on security affairs lor several yearsardliner on political reform. Although he has Impressed Dang with his administrative ability and poll!Icel skills. Ms lack ol experience In economic matters would suggestost Chinese that Zhao, and perhaps one of the vice premiers, would continue tohe economy were Qiao appointed. Qiao It not Hhed by many younger reformers, end his appointment would further
Special Analysis
ISRAEL-LEBANON; onger Military Action Likely
rsreef's defenseftofarer Kmbln lo,fiee'/aA'e tmomo to in*Va'.ey and ro tolMMl>peeefferioLO
to
oam< the el
lahad'a South Lebanon Army has had at laaaten killed and many more wounded In recent concerted assault* bysuch losses are unprecedented. Israel remains commuted to the survival ol Lahad's forces, but ll Is frustrated by their Inability lo avert heavy casualties In lending oil HUballah and byrowing need lor Israeli support. '
I
4
Israeli leaders have taken only limited steps to counter ihethey see In Lebanon. To bolster the motalo o'has granted pay Increases, ordered Improvements Insecurity at outposts In the Israeli security zone Inand provided additional trotplng. The Israelis havetheir efforts to Interdict reluming Palestinian lightersthe ferry service from Cyprus to the Christian port ofto Illegal ports along the Lebanese coast. Qui these effortsno impact on Httballah or the
Moving Toward Bolder Mee.uree
Rabin, like most other Israeli leaders, does not want to Increase the number of Israeli troops stationed permanently In southern Lebanon, and he will avoid doing so as long as he has other options. Nevertheless. I* the surge of attacks In tha security zona threaten %
conlinuad
Original document.
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