Created: 12/30/1986

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National Intelligence Daily Tuesday


Warning Page

Regime Reaction to Violence In Alms Ala

In tne week following tho rlotln'glh Alma Ate^Aoicow has moved to demonstrate Its determination end ability toecurrence ot popular disturbances end to tlgntayrcerrtrol over native elites in non-Russian republics, ffffl

An editorial in Pravda on Sunday denounced parochial attempts to place local economic concerns above iho devefopmeni o' the countryhole, reaffirmed the government's commitment to root out corruption among entrenched local elites, and stated that the selection of officials to serve in minority repuDlics "proceeds from the supreme interests ot the alt-unionhe Pravda reportoliiburo meeting on Thursday forcefully noted lhe leaderships determination to punish the instigalors of :rte

Last week the Kazakh partyoordinating council to marshal the battle against social problems and against "clannishness" and "nepolism"for local nationalism. Gcnnadiy Kolbin. the new parly leader, has publicly chastised the local Komsomol and Academy of Sciences lot tailures in tne "internationalist" educationthe republic's youth.eeting of the Kazakh party leadership last week. Kolbin attacked the organIzalion's shortcomings In Ideological and personnel work. Another editorial in Ihe Kazakh press criiiclzed Ihe KG8 Border Guards for their lack ol protesslonalism and ideological

Soviet media have noted that many of the Kazakh noters were under the influence ot alcohcJ and drugs. Soviet press articles also suggest thai anger over food shortages contributed to lhe violence; Kolbin has promised that his administration will improve the supply ol food and consumer cooc^ aaaoeamm

regime of General Secretary Gorbachev Is moving on

several fronts to head off any luriher public4fcsorder In Kazakhstan and is reaffirming Us commitment lo crack down on recalciirant provincial elites. Emphasis on the role of alcohol and consumer frustrations in touching off the disturbances is probabfy intended to distract attention Irom the importance nationality gnevances played in the I

Whileougher line on elite discipline. Moscow is making an effort to woo the Kazakh population by giving assurances that the new Russian leader of lhe Kazakh party is sensitive to problems with the slandard of living.,


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recent meeting* between Indian and Pakistani InteriorMinistry officials have helped restore momemutn-to Improve relations, but optimism may wane asdeal with domestic unrest they suspect the othertannin eSmam

luring discussions in Islamabad this the Foreign Secretaries focused on smallmeasures such as expanding trade and installingservice. They also reviewed more sensitive (or terrorists and the pledge by Primeand President Zla5 not to attack eacn other's nuclear'

The Foreign Secretaries said they will meet again In March.Secretary Venkateswaran also told the press tnatvisit Pakistan in

The Interior Stcretarles of the two countries also met this month and agreed to establish committees toss border security Issues One committee will consider procedures covering illegal border crossings, terrorism, and related matters; another will work out measures to counter drug trafficking and smuggling. eWaW

meetings covered little beyond Ihend Gandhi considered at theirear ago. The favorable atmosphere generated by that mealing faded when the two sides tried to Implement their agreements, and many of the old suspicions and Impediments remaii

Pakistani and Indian officials seem to feel little pressure toquickly even with confidence-building measures.In Pakistan's Slnd Province and In India'eVunjabwill provoke new accusations of meddling byPakistani hope*andhi visit are likely to bewhen Hew Demi Insists on tangible progress on bilateral


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ore blacks have groups WtfMf

Violence, protests, end boycotts reportedly continue In South Africa's block townships despite harsh security rnemsures and strictly enlorcad press

in addition, atilled In fightlng'ambng labor and tribal

and consumer boycotts apparently are stdl under way in several townships. According to government statistics. Christmas retail sales were almostercent below projections, apparently reflecting both continuing boycotts by blacks end low consumer confidence In tbe conomy among

Pretoria yesterday gave authorities sweeping powers lo restrict the presence or conduct o' Students on school premises in an effort to control unrest at black schools. Black opposition groups yesterday called on students to return to Class In January and asked Pretoria lo reopen dosed schools and release school-age detainees.

crackdown has prevented black opposition groups from organizing nationwide protests but has not stamped oi smaller demonstrations and violent outbursts. The new restrictions on black schools will only undermine attempts by parents to end school oycotts and are likely lo lead to even greater militancy among young lacks. The government, however, feels under no pressure to ease estrictions, particularly if it decides lo hold an early general election MMHBVNfW.



POLAND; Solidarity Concerned About Labor Unreal

'-Opposition leaders are,-concerned that unrest among Pollen coal iliners may lead to openB>1

tffMfAJaTiMi^c^ arco B* Increasingly disgruntled because the"economic privileges are curtaiiec anc waoei arepace won inflation(3)

police brokemalltT last week tnai was held to ommemorate the death ol several mtners at the hand*hen martial law was Imposed in iPSIietBeWBeMBtfJeBeaaflMefaeNM^t

4Bin*aMiSolidarity is now concentrating on shoring up Its orgon'zatlon andong-term economic program, In the hops of promoting peaceful change.

they are worried that renewed unrest might lead to another government crackdown and could expose divisions within Solidarity over the tactics to be used In dealing with the regime. In the past. Polish miners were cowed Into accepting martial law and were then placated with high pay and access to special stores offering scarce Items. Although It is unlikely that lhe miners are ready to .engage in widespread strikes, spontaneous disturbances could occur.



Special Analysis




Policy in Lebanon

Israeli strategic planners are concerned about fhejooo-lflrm implications ot emerging trends In southernresurgentora aggressive redl^JShla Hizballah, and

Incicaitnglthia Amur aMHTft

In response, Israel has increases military activity in Lebanon in ihe last several weeks-

The PLO in Southern Lebanon

Israel's major concern is the possibilrtyenewed PLO stronghold in much or all ol southern Lebanon. Allhougn Tal Aviv still regaroaevelopment as unkkr

expanded military activity in Lebanon in ihe past severaloperations, naval bomoardmem. and interdiction ofbeen directed almosl entirely against the PLO. Israel Is likely to respond to additional PLO gains in Lebanon by gradually Increasing the frequency and scope Ot its actions against Palestinian targets there. Amal's mediocre showing against the PLO and its loss of support to Hiiballah in the Lcoanese Shia osjmmunity are undermining Ihe position of those Israeli policymakers who want Tel rely on Amalacit ally to block relitigation by the

Hizballah Heada South

Israeli defense planners undoubtedly want to retaliate agamsi Hizoailah lor its series of bold attacks in mid-Seotember and early Oecember against the Army of South LeOanon. Israel's surrogate lorce In Its security ions in southern Lebanon. The attacks Oy Hizballah wereorrisome for Israel because they


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undermined the fragile morale of the ASL ana bor'der altempisbythc Snla fundamentalists. -

Milar)'sin piid-ftoptember.MBfcCould not Strike against Hizballah in its base area in the Gekaa valley even if the jj^jia-aglS securiiy zone Ii soui'iprir Lebanonv.n

ibm's public revelation in miO-DeceTnoeTThal tne US had asked Israel two years ago io refrain from hitting Hizballah's bases in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley and his implication that me reasons lor (hat ban have now lapsed were clearly intended to warn the Shia extremists that Israel retains Ihe option io strikehe Sekaa Valley.'

Israel'! "PbO Line"

Israel's growing concern and gradually escaiaiing responses, thereine beyond which Israeli leaders cannoi go because of the Israeli public's bitter memories of the country's deep entanglement In Lebanon in thehe public would probably nol tolerate major or long-term grouno Involvement in Lebanon again. US diplomats in Tel Aviv reported several weeks ago that Rabir. is sensitive to public opposition to anyfeing that looks like reoccupailon. Even so. Israel is likely to relnlorce lis cwn military positions in southern Lebanon, to prop up the ASL with additional equipment, and lo carry out additional quick surg^al strikes

The recent development make it even less likely Ihat Israel will withdraw completely Irom southern Lebanon soon or allow the UN or Amal to assume responsibility for the defense of ihat area, if the PLO and Hizballah continue to gain strengih in We south and If lhe Influence ol Amal and the ASL continues io slip, the potentialising spiral of violence between Israel, on the one hand, and the Palestinians and radical Shias In Lebanon, on the other, will grow.




Special Analysis

Try To Broaden Political Saaa

Tbe Unltlee -icaraguan Opposition, an umbrella organisationform ad lair rear, has recently mode progresstie Image by holding en Open assembly on aNicaragua. Nonetheless, the failure ot Its unltfthe Southern Oppositionmeller groupIntarnatlonel con reefs, may hsmpar Its efforts lobroader political base

UNOtrong militaryby the Nicaraguanwhk* comprises0 combatants based mfighting throughout much olH has longforolitical program that cook) attractInternalIono( support. The UNO held an open assembly inlasl month Io address this problem. Attendees agreed to draltand toocial program for implementationevfit thai the antl-Sandnista rebels comew<r L tTne group's maWsry chiefs

acknowledged cMuan control overndeed.member Alfonso Robek) proposed that NicaraguaRica's example and abolish the Army once the Sandinistas

the Southern Opposition Bloc

UNO has sough!ane* wllh the Southern Bloc largely because, ol t

thenternational linayu

0Mesmhf Bloc's leader. Aitredo Cesar, Is the most pellllcallvattractrve InsuioBnt InAder,

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Special Analysis

Industry Recovering

Iranian oil productionexport* here reboundedol repmlr workeduction In Iraqi airoil taclllUat. At long at recent level* ol oil eaporttTehran will be able to finance lit war with Iraq

napalm ai ine KhaiH Island export terminal have allowed Iran'sorls to return to anillion cartels per day. Oil

production has recoveredown

. near Iran's OPEC quota5

Recent Iraqi snacks have seriously damaged olfahoro oil platformssouthern Persian Gull, but losses in oftshore productionmore than offset by production from onshorerepal's to refineries haveignificant portionoutput of retlned product over the past month.sufferof heating fuel and gaso*me at least D

J he regime still faces tough economic choice

I further reductions In an already austere domestic budget, especially for food or heating oil, might spark adda^pnal protests and Increase discontent among the lower classes. Attempts to secure large foreign loans would compromise the regime'solicy of financial Independence. Higher oil prices,esult of the new OPEC accord, ansa sustained Increase In oil exports would bringiio' 4ffJfB


Although iran's-oil Industry has Improved in recent months. It remains procar-ous. OPEC coooeration is essential to ensure stable or rialng otl prices, the current Ml in, Iraqi air attacks against on facilities could endetanyhme.ltirfif III



Major Poinls in NATO's Brussels Declaration

High Leva) Task Force on conventional arms control will continue to study the establishmenteriflablo, comprehensive, and stable balance ol conventional forces at lower levels.

NATO Is committed to maintaining an effective and credible deteirenl.

Reductions in nuclear weapons, which are the subject ot discussions between the US and USSR In Geneva, would Increase the Importance of eliminating, conventional disparities.

NATO Is ready to open East-West discussionsiew to ihe establishmentandate for negotiating on conventional arms control covering the whole of Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals.

There must be recognition of the facts about the current situationommon understanding on philosophy, objectives, and methods.

Major Proposals in the Warsaw Pacl'e Budapeal Appeal

reduction of conventional ground and air forces would proceed In two stages:

The first stage would Involve mutual cuts of as manyen by NATO and Ihe Warsaw Pact.

Second-stage cuts would amount Io anoen on each side by Ihe early ISSOs.

Reductions are lo involve demobilizing entire lormatlons and units, and armaments and equipment subject to reduction would be destroyed or cooaspeo to depots on the home territories of participants.

zone for conventional force reduction would encompass Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals.

Nuclear weapons with ranges of as muchllcmeiers would be reduced; nuclear warheads would be deslroyed.



Arms Control Policy

has been increasingly critical ol what ItNATO's delaying tactics on conventions! armsere anxious to abandon the long-era feme ted MBFRtheir emphasis on the Soviet advantage in ground forcesEurope. They want fo movearc dlllusewhere they will try to ensure Ihat the agenda Is more to K

Soviet criticism of NATO's Brussels Declaration nas focusedareas: NATO's renewed emphasis on the need (onuclear and conventional forces: the absence ofto begin new conventional arms negotiallons: and theNATO to acknowledge the Warsaw Pad's Budapest Appealforce reductions. Recent increased criticism reflectsunsuccessful attempts to engage NATO in directto work out arrangements for new negotiations.Gorbachev, Foreign Minister Shevardnadze, andCommander in Chief Kutjkpvhave all proposed suchthe past live months.


Moscow wants to ensure mat these concerns despot stimulate NATO to spend more on conventional lorce modernization. The Soviets especially hope to dampen Wesl European enthusiasm lor exploiting high technology to offset the Pact's military advantage and force the USSR to commit additional resources lojhe military raiher than lo Gorbachev's industrial modernization.'

the USSR is ready lo make significant reductions in conventional forces. The Soviets could lake mutual cuts on lhe orderOO men. as proposed In lhe first stage ol the Budapestlleciing iheir military capabtiities-aaaWfev.,. might make smaller culs


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