NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FOR 29 NOVEMBER 1986

Created: 11/29/1986

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Cotittjfitti

Basque 1

UtftiVMicvTafl 2

Btrnxtk Antfcjov*>rnmenl 3

ttotrvie: Dealing VVHh

efense CulB 8

Election

electron In fne Botgiro region rtwmwrow covfc, Aa**

implication, for Bprnmat, Mm* mim.tor

Four local and ihroe national perUea wMl be) competing forthaineenber Beeque perl-ament. The election wasa Spin within the governing Dasqu* Nation aJial Party anddetection of one-tfilrd of Ita deputies. According

opinion potts, no party la Mary tolearflat**

fflkVae>lsVaa*AHl>ougb Iheaiocthas beeny onth* outcome Is aKofy to provide an Indicator of

aooaplenoa ofough entttarrorwt meeauras againat

Baaqu* terrorlet group ETA. GOnaatex, who haa categortcalty rejected /dialogue with the ETA. la almost certainly hoping that

Muoh dependa. however, on th* tale of thea*quearty, tt has spoken out against vlo4enc* by the ETA over the pest year end cooperated wtth the centra* governmentumber of key Issues. If the Basque liaUonallata auffer sharp losseshe more radical localhis might leadeturnore OntTorrtBtioneJtoward MaCnd esSafaa*

The election mey alsoajor Impact onenler-nght opponents even though Ihey are likely to controlmailf regionaloor showing by th* Popular AM*no* wouldth* already fragile position of its leader. Manualn addition, the election will teat the popularity ol former Prime Minimer Ad olio Suerez'a fledgling party, which la trying to replace. th* Popular Alliancein* maior opposition to Ih* Socialist* taaaaet .

strong showing by has Seclaast Party againat th* localW I- n" m* poliolae end allowreer hand In passing wtth tt-

End*

rtathvWert to Indie, whfCAterdsr.o/n( dec/arelion on initnaiiafxat leeuaa that broke fc> 3

Th*the "Delhi Oaolaretlon" bythe military use ol outer apace. caAed foreliminate nuclear weapons by the end of the century andthe Indian Ocean, mentioned mutual Internet In Aand eecurtty. and claimed agreement on apecrflc troublelhe Middle East. South AIYlee, and Central America*.reeutted In economic accorda. aa anticipated, but India avoided ,cc-nmlmwil tooviet nifdeju*

joint declaration waa an etfuehe. mutually nattering reaffirmation of Indo-Scvlet aoiictenry Aavoided contentloue laauae Neat her Afghanistan, the Slno-Indian border dispute, nor Sino-Sovtsrt reialKtna were apecnVeJty mentioned Ah hough Gorbachev repeated hie caul for an Asa en eoourtty conference at his eddrssshe Indian Pen lament Indie del not endorse thehe general declaration. tajBaft"*

Any hope thai the vfaft would produce major advanoaa In kvdo-Sovwt Uee had probably reded before ha start. Each aide had been unreeponefve to the other'a overtures on difficult laauae during preliminary dtacuaeJon*

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and New Delhi are probably content with lhe warm etmoepherlcs of the visit and tho extensive media coverage, which have sent the intended signals that their relationship remains vigorous. It Is poeslble. nonetheless, that the unexpectedly protracted private talks between Gorbachev and Indian Prune Minister Gandhi db r

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i

eeiMMN11

President Saroey recent ad

surprised_over the negative reaponae lo Ine

hla

mouMnd people pank.pa-ad on Thursdayiolent demonstration In Brasilia. The crowd was oroanCred by latitat and labor group* to protest lha large, aetoclfve price hike* Implemented last week.

ihTuackofv!loo7cS^^TmOC'",k: Mown*nlrfuctdngwere ennour<aKl.aflB^BBaaa%BBa^

Minister Funaro. widely aeen aa the architect ol theoffered hta resignation aaresult ol th* omwlnatho President refused I ""

a strong popular endn the recent election or the government'e Inflatlon-Sghllng program, the public apparently teeia betrayed bytforta partially to lift the freeze onabor andt Madera are probabty planning more demonstration* and Strikes against Ihe governmeni. The extent of public disapproval will probably keep Samey from Implementing further adki*tmeritB,

ffltO bolstor lhe flaoginfl economic proa.rem

With

government has0 mineworkerB an uHlmatum to

accept ornai offer of severance benefits by

many of the rank and til* ana urging their leaders toorth an average of about three years ol theirthough union negotiators hademanded much

taBeBHaasaMn1*lh*stop In Ls Paa'S yru.Honrj effort toita troubled mining sector. If Ihe minora accept the offer, the government will probably have to rely on foreign aid or deficit spending to finance the settlement and figureay to provide alternativeegard lees of the outcome, the government will retain the initiative because recent atrtkea and marches have attracted little public support and ibe. miners union appear* to have become Increasingly divided.

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CUBA: Armed Force* Day

celebrate Armed Forcm Dry rwn Tueedaywhat tha Cuban preee la calling iha biggest militaryHew. lo be followed later In the weekajor Is^dwWe

&9

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. oH*J pr-aonn*-There will probably also bo aignmcant militiathe military exercles* later In Ihe

Cuta Announced

Cseueeecu'a recent announosrnent ihat RomaniarsssenBS] budgetercent la masnl io portraykl avrna control and undenlna It* IndependentIhe Warsaw Pact. The reduction will not significantly reducemiliary capability. Ceauseecu aald that, aa part ol theforoee would be reduced0 men and thatbe reductions In the number ol tanas, armoredItchier aircraft. and heacopleis3

BBaVaaBBjfsaV^ rigixaa Ceaueesou announced amount loperoent at Romania's military personnel strength and ofof the weapone In question. However, the figurethe total reduction In defense spending actually amounts topercent of the Romanian announced defense budget and may beadmission ihat defense outlays are twice the omaeiryThe cut In manpower probably wSI not hurl militaryofilitary personnel are already Involved InThe weapons reduetlona probably wilt be achievedolder weapons. The budget reduetlona, however, couldmilitary capabilities If they delay the acquisition ofThe Soviets are Bfcery to tolerate Ceeusescu'aRon^nla does notentral militaryhe 1

On- 1BS6

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I threeo Wee*of tnree Syrian Optornata efter court verdictto bombing In Weartm Meson ..ved iliei Hotki dkieever dlpJt-Ti.tfcc iii.kB

Aquino yesterday demlaaed Ministers end Mercedo lor telling to reduce corruption inepieoed by txilneeemen respectediemleeaU. demanded by mtl'iery.

ofPrime Minister Lee one ot lour young parliamentarians appointed to ruling parly. policymaking cornmtttee thl*epresents further grooming otj Lee. governmeni commitment to orderly succession

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rrench Aeaonibiy ileoatea oniral bornWnoactkxtB in March, may nijnal newJM*,-

Social Democratic oppoaflion Intrcduclng, bill lo bancountrtee al war reactingJlagailonalo irenaport lararaC. us arma lo

bul some kjgaJat-Xi ll.ety MafepV

onecker vlerted

i MXongrnaa in DresdenVaaWaaaMBP

u

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of Bowrh African Trade UrMona caUng for two-hour work aloppegerotesting death of union activist In Durbar

-ek-etent lo call lor all-day boycott, fee/ gc-remmer* fc^

Analysis

UEBAMOM-aVRIA: Tha Camp War

a>rta lies boon unmbtm to curtail thm Intonmon Lm+mnon bmtmrmm* thm pra-myrlmr, Shtrn Am ml mil Him iM Pmtmh

Fmlmmtlnlmna toylmmoortomhmmd mrtth

poHUeml rmtorm. With tho rmcmtit Ommonilrmllon ot afnwtgtt orFLOoo, tjrlmm cmmpmlgn to choc*growing imiumoom throamfvout Lebanon hmm njtfmrod. Both mJomm ha,a

ow receMng support from Lebanon's Druzo and Sunni Muallm milttlaa. further hampartng Amaf's efforts egefnat the Palestinians. Tha (eider of lha Sunnistrongest Inbeon ostensibfy nautral. but his men ara aiding wrtth Fatah. Tho Druxe ore making ft difficult for Amal to bring In reinforcements from Beirut by refusing to allow Amalhe coastal highway nearehTjW

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hi

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fforts tofat'* rtvala wrthln tho Peieetinlan National Salvation Front, tha Fatah leader has managed to strengthen hla poatlron InaMa the oampe by anlbrllne tha support ol other radical PaJeertlnian group* Ubya and *ran are pressing Syria to and lha

I Syria hi trying lo parauade Druze leader Junbian to kjrn Amal: Junbiatt. tkowever. rnairrtaina cordial tlaa to Arafat and bellevea the (growing Shia canton In the eoutn will undermine his own Druze rnlnurtat*MHHHHpBB**

oiSghting has Sunni and Shia IO vte for the control of

The

Muellm reconciliation. If pro-Arafat ground, Syria may be faced wtth the IrKxeeaing <t* mattery presence In

th* tradOkxaJ apih

outhem Lebanon for mom he and dean all reform or Crirtatlan-corrtinoe to gam ol

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Special Arualyela

Lifei Lanean

meall/tp; between Indian Prime* Minister Osndhl end SriVosiownl Jarewordene ear/farnonfft InIndia, ha* fevrYee Inecf Sri Lmnkan peace talks. Hew Delhi le llklf to press harder on the moat powerful Brl Lmnkmn InsurgentLiberation TJgmra of Tamilnegotiate with Colombo, but the Tigers remain mdmmmnttjend will probmbfy be able to resist Indian

ays ol worfcirvo-levef negotlationa lor Sri Lankan and Indian offtcfala lo adopl formally

lhe peace propooala Jayewardene brought to his rrUd-raovember

meeting wrth Gandhi. The plan combines Jayewerdene's earlier

proposal lo create three separata, ethnicalry baaed provlrtceo from

the existing Eaatom Provinceew Indian proposal that would

link the two largest ettlea In the east, BotllcaJo* ando

Jaffna in tho northamil-con trolled corrldor.i

high-level Indian to Jayewardene last week.

India probably la trying to accommodate Tamil demenda for control othe hey crty In Pastern Province, which I*ercent Tamil, f-

Tiger*

Politically and militarily the Liberation Tigers dominate the Insurgent movement in Sri Lanka and control the civil administrative apparatus In the Jaffna Peninsula: they hold the key to *uccess for any peace plan. Tiger leader Pre bake/an was the only major Insurgent leader flown to Bangalore to meet Gandhi to discuss the latest peacePrabakaran rejected. Moderate leaders and other militant groupe were not even Informed until after the meeting was

1

lor Ih* mMtlarrti *mong Tamil Madu politician* andrtaaomewhat m

recent we-ie, and th* Insurgent* mayncreasingly dfhSouftfrom southern IndWLwnl baomlatanta out of Tamil Nadu ehooether. It oan exertby curtailing tr-mr arm* and naacoflce trafficking Inand by lncr**eing naval pairpia in the Paik Strait lo nam theof guarrlaae mtoanka,

The Tlgera ao far have refected all of Coiombo'e peace proposals, and fhoy are not likely to bow to Indian pressure to negotiate aertoualy. Continued Intranalgence by th* mllManlaan ton Indian preatlgo and credibility,howdown between Mew Delhi and Tiger lender*

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