USSR: IMPROVING AGRICULTURAL PERFORMANCE REDUCES GRAIN IMPORT NEEDS (GI 86-1008

Created: 12/1/1986

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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USSR: Improving Agricultural Performance Reduces Grain import Needs

Am fatrBtrmet Antmotei

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USSR: Improving Agricultural Performance Reduces Grain Import Needs

AnAiiciimnl

This paper was prepared

uOflke of Global Issues, focc of Soviet

Analysis. Comments and queries are welcome and may be directed to ,OGI,oa

USSR: Improving Agricultural Performance Reduces Grain Import Needs

Soviet agricultural performance has improved6 and may exceed tbe1 production, an accc*nplisbmeni General Secretary Gorbachev trill undoubtedly highlighturnaround in the agricultural sector. Tbe unproved performance is doe to continued growth in tbe livestock ttxaae enmbined with Increased production of several ma for crops.

Recently. Politburo member Yegor IJgachev predicted that tbe Soviet grain crop would beillion metric tons. This figure, however,reliminary estimate as harvesting is still not completed and final results will not be known for some Urns

we would have

a grain crop closerillionigher figure would in* dicjtc, among other factors, greater success wilh tbe Intensive technology program than we have estimated.

Depending on the final grain outturn, the need for imported grain will fall lo betweenillion andillion tons, compared with tbe almostillion tons imported duringS6 marketing yearoviet grain purchases to date total aboutilboo tons- Lives lock feed supplies are currently adequate and the growing glut of grain on world markets is increasing tbe prospects that already low grain prices will faD still further. Byaiting game. Moscow will be able to nNain grain at discount prices from grain suppliers desperate lo sell

In our view, the Soviet Union will probably limit lis purchases of US grain toommodity thai the United State* holds In great supply, can sell at fully compelilive prices, and can reliably deliver al any lime of year.purchasesnd Canadian barley and feed wheat and Yugoslav corn, however, mayecision to limit US corn purchases. Moscow's failure lo eipk.il US subsidy offers onillion tons ofeven while purchasing Canadian and ECindicates that Moscow will continue to buy from other, cheaper wheat suppliers before coming lo the United States. Given tbe outlok for sizable wheat export availability from US competitors, tbe USSR may not purchase any US wheal during the current marketing year

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Original document.

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