NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FOR 8 NOVEMBER 1986

Created: 11/8/1986

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EUROPE:

Council Meeting

CEMA heads of government, meeting In Bucharest thisbilateral agreements on lolnt enterprises and aon nuolaar energy, but they apparentlyon pricing and quality ol goods until next week's of party leaders.'

The Soviets signed bilateral agreements withHungary, and East Oermany to promoteand production associations. The premiers endorsedprogram to Increase Eastern Europe's nuclear electric- .capacity fivefold by tho>

premiers complained sharply

progress In Implemenong CEMA's sclonce and technology program Delegates from several countries eritioized the low volume and quality of Bloc trade ana appealed for better hilntlment of trade commitments. Romanian President Ceausescu also called for an examination ot CEMA's price and exchange rato system and for hImproved Incentives to cooperot" IsWMMl

criticisms and sharp tone displayedtne CEMA premiers Indicate shut isst-'es remain contonlfous ard ihsit the leaders are still groping for consensus solutions. At their meeting earlyweek, CEMA-party leaders are likely to focus again on pricing, guailty of goods, and measures to advance science and technology. Although Moscow la counting on the establishment of direct enterprise links among CEMA countries to Increase the profluctlon of high-technology goods,re tew Incentives (or such efforts. Romania's criticism of CEMA trade practices and Its roluctanoe to sign an agreement on joint firms may mirror widespread East European reservations about committing resources to so oh ventures.

endorsement of the nuclear energy program Indicates the Bloc rnmalns committed to rapid expansion ot nuclear power despite the Impact of Chernobyl'. Safety concerns and Eastern Europe's lack of conlv^fl''lMuo to delay plant

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Vtett

Spanlth prima Minuter Genre/ex's trim lo Latin America, which beglmill giro him an opportunity to develop Spain* roleuropean bridge to Hlapenlc Amerlet

Gonzalez goes first to Ecuador and Peru, but tha highlight ofwillour-day visit tofirstATO headnmom The trip icturnsRdel Castro's "unofficial" vtali

beiwoon Madrid and Havana this year hove heenclumsy attempt by Cuban intelligence officers to kidnap ain Madrid last December and Havana's sharp crlilclamcolonial past contributedto lhepostponement of two jneduiec

I Gonzalez Is probabty counting on the visit at thisWil,

loiiow an independent foreign policy despite Spain'sm NAIO aid Ms nccot.ai.ons. on USh. government nas been shaken recently by press ropons that its willingness toATO's mflftary structure is greater than 11 publicly acknowledged states*

Gonzalez alsomat Spain's htstorical and cultural Ilearegion enable it toseful role In Central AmericanHe almost certainly harbors no illusion about his abilityCuban policy, but he sees Cubaey to settlement olP'ODk>ms and believes that lines of communication must be Uopen

Castro Is unllkaly to be moved by Spanish arguments on regional issues. Ho Is also not Inclined to accommodate Madrid Dy releasing polllicnl prtaoners. although he may try to link the Issue lo Spanishconcessions. Nonetheless. Castrotrong interestell to improve his regime's legltlmec) j ^

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PERU- Municipal Election*

Garde's American Populaf Revotuttonary AiUancado we* In countrywide municipal elections tomorrow, but Inrace Inthe couniry'*perfy faces strong ocpoattpn trpm both theand thoof the

three major candidates in Umaommanding lead. Oarcla has avoided public endorsement ot APRA's darkhorae and campaigned instead In the countryside totrong APRA showing nationally ond to offset any defeatma/JVJ^JfA

Sese*sJM*JJ Gnrcm distanced himself Irom APRA'sima to avoldmakfng (he mayoralest of fits own popularity. Awin would dearly signal popular baching for Qarcla'a policies However, either an APRA or conservative victory over the Marxist Incumbent, who has generally cooperated with Garcia and icslrolnod Iho far loft, could polarize Ihe politicalictory by the conservative candidate would be viewedebuke of Garcla'a policies and would reawaken opposition lo the government from centrist and conservative parties

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USSR: Grain till mat* Released

Soviet otllcuit claim may are expecting Ihe fourlh-largoslnr Speakingremlin rely on ThursdayYegor ugachev said that8 graininionilSonmora Wan lite average'-85

/'sealized, means that the Gorbachev-tocfmology progrnm to Incrnaso grain production has yielded tangible results. The harvest Is only now being comnk-ted. and ll will bo some time before the actual results are known. Estimates baited on meteorological datsand arthizer production statistics put the crop at closerillion tons.his grain crop approaches ZtO million tone, however, the Soviets will proDaoiy buy leas gram on International market* during tho current marketing year, which began In July, than they have anyurchases may amount loillion tons, with little ol it coming irom the usw ^

INDIA: Uramum-Enrlchment Cepablllly Claimed

New Delhi's claim ihat Iteaction lo recent publicity about Pakistan'sThe Chairman ot India's Atomicress conference on Tuesday that India canuraniumnyweaponsa resultand development work at thc Bhabho Atomicnear Bom Day

grade.

lay bo an attempt fo calm popular

In the Western and Indian presses that Pakistan already has uranlum-enrlchmont and nuclear weapons capabilities. Ihe chairman of theIs hoping to persuade Prime Miniate' Gandhi to extend hisIs also using the announcement to counter criticism that the Indian nuclear

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Program* Thai Will Be Funded Under Ihe Military Program Law

Nuclear Force*

ModemOailon of existing SLUM force Development ot new M5 SLBM.

Construction of seventh nuclear missile submarine

Development of S3 mobile IHBMower priority than SLBM moderniMiion) Production ol Hades tactical nuclear missile

Conventional Forces

Construction ol now nuclear aircraft carrier, the Richelieu. Production of new Leclerc mein battle tank. Development ol new military obsorvallon esteJIne Purchase ot airborne early warning nlrcrsft. Development of Rafaio tighter and of new attack helicopter.

FRANCE; Now Military Pros ram

France's now defense ptogram Is an ambitious atlempi io modernize most ot ita armed forces and increase funding lor programs deia under ibe previous Socialist government MBBMVJh the Frencn catinel approved one-yearrogram law mat Includes fundingew nuclear-powered aircrafteventh ballistic mtssBeew moose iniermeOiate-ranBe ballistic missile,umber of corwenitonal

i plan calls for

equipment expenditures oleBon-en average annual real growth rateercent, although onlyercentB. Thc program law makes no projections, however, for operating expenditures, when Paris will continue to est annually. fjsa*V

new program maintains Presidentn strsteglc foroes. but also gives Defense Minister Giraud aubslantlally Increased funding for other forces Tho planned sharp increases in military spending are an attempt to give substance to Prime Minister Chirac's commitment to defense arid to highlight the dlfferoncea between his administration and the Socialists In preparation for6lection. Fiscal constraints probably will force Pans to scale back some coalslipping some programa-particularty COnvenlkxieJ armsopcraTinge.pono.tjres. and paring mjtjtary power to preserve funds lo* mattery procurement

In Bnef

Lineup of Soviet leadership lor Revolution Day ear so* unusual military contingent reduced, removed from hmeaght .. KGB chief

Chebrikov. Foreign Minister Shevardnadze inchen up to seventh'spote. respectively, among Politburo members

i io aiinck us, occasion to press fr Cuba promoted meetingajsfsaat

Guyana hosting Nonalignnrl foreign ministers' mooting tinIn January,

Nicaragua forum lo attack US. occasion to press bid for

chairmanship

- US touMst wounded W. possibly shot by drug traffickersrwass Kingston aioppeO

could more than ollr-iit

hybrid strain of marijuana Into Jamaica.

morn (optfll, I

om eranicatlon nfforta i

leader Seaga yealarday withdrew offers to resign as Prime Minister and parlyaid pending IMF agreement requires his continuedarly IMF accord unlikelySeaga agrees to currency devaluation aSBBBja

Asia

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