Warning Page
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Contonla
Bruit Election Results
ressure From Ihe Left
Notes
USSR-South Korea: Sovet Overtures
Proposed Nuclear-FreeLuOberss Viell lo Moscow
USSR-Nicaragua: Official Sovlei Statement
France-Iran: Normallnng Relations...
Pace ten Cult Uen: Shipping Attacks Renewed
Braiil: Presn Leaks About Nuclear Program
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Terroriel Watch
Bri.f
Analyse*
Coping With theEconomy Hurting Regime
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Election heaulli
mnd congrettlonal elections hale on Selwder
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trong vole ol confidence In President Sarnefa ytollctea, bul the lendtllde victory by tha center-left Democratic Movement Party, the tenter partner In Serney't coalition,U" 'I fe challengentiohmtamwofkm
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argo, orderly turnout, the majority DemocratictatfHLaVi alio scored repressive victories In theHey states ol Sao Paulo and Rio oe Janeiro, while prominent members of the Movement's left wing captured two state houses in the populous nortt. ssfajjs-
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Althougfi'tno rosults of the congressional election will not be final for several weeks, tallies by Brazilian political observers indicate that the "Movement probably will control both houses In the new Constituent Assembly, which will rewrite Brazil's Constitution next year. Nevertheless. Ihe leftist opposition also appears to have mado
against conservativeIn Congress
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(The Movement's landslide win In la-'ce part resulted from Sarney's popularity, which stems from nis efforts to fignt Inflation and promote social histice. Leaders of the Movementideologically lo the left ofana likely toreater share ol cabinet posts and Influence In policymaking to promote liberal policies Sarney will resisl these efforts by exploiting infighting within the broad phased party and by Invoking his strong influence with lhe v:
Initially. Sarney wit; be strengthened by the Movements gubernatorialao Paulo andde Janeiro, which set back the presidential ambitions of Sarney's principal adversaries Sarney. however, will increasingly have to contend wtth strengthened party leaders who want to shorten his term when the new constitution Is drafted. Moreover, the election of well-known leftists In the Movement to several Important governorships will sharpen the party's Internal gj
leadership struggle as the presidential succession neers.,
The election to Congress of more liberal members of theof other leftistsBkety to complicate Sarneys efforts toConstituent Asse-.bly. Prospective alliances amongthe potential for contentious laoiaiauye rssues onand me role of the tenrg)
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Cornmunlete are uUng labor loader Olellaa murder to regain the propaganda Inlllmtlre erndf^rtfrer dhrlde Preehdent Aquino endntlniner
Communist cease-fire negotiators who aopeared at Ol*ake accused Enrile and iho military of having Oiatla murdarad and implied Ihat Aquino was moially responsible lor iheroas statement by Olalia's radical labor federation, the KMU, said that the murder resulted Irom Aquino's Indecisive and compromising attitude toward the military and the right.the funeral tomorrowlikely to demand Enriie'i dismit
The gorwrsd strike caJkM on Monday by thc KMU andother leading Commurwst hoot groups lawed to gainsupport. Leaders from the government, theand the Catholic Church pubScfy warned the leftstrike might Inhibit economic recovery and mat sustainedmight provoke violence. The local press is cautioningagainsUaoJance Out urging Aquino to act decisively lo
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I The Communists' prtmary obiective is to keep civil-military tensions In the government near the boiling point to provoke government instability and further delay Manila's counter insurgency efforts The Communists probably hope that, by organizing protests against the murder. Ihey can Improve their credibility and popular appeal and regain the tactical advantage In the cease-fire tares, which Ihey suspended to protest Oiai-a's murder. Tne Communists aknost certainly believe ihey can convincepublic that tne governmentresponsible if the talks fan "ow
The funeral tomorrow Is likely to attract more public atlrntinn than Monday's strike. However, the Communists are unlikely to discredit themselves by encouraging violence, and the mllitory will be on alert to counter any
Aquino presumably readies the Communist* are trymg to keep her oft balance, she probably also suspects the mattery was Involved In Otafta'S murder. She Is trying to avoid pressure,from both groups by focusing on an Impartial investigation of the killing and avoiding puoilcbe interpreted as leaning toward either aide.'
NORWAY-SWEDEN-USSR: Proposed Nucleer-Froe Zone
Carlsson noted tnat Si< evaluate the measures.
Nordic leaders areympathetic Put cautious response to recent Soviet efforts to encourage the creationordic nuclearapons-free none. Politburo member Ligachev. who visited Finland last week, pointed to Moscow's removal of some medium-range missile launchers from northwest USSR and Indicated the Soviets may take additional steps. Norwegian Prime Minister Brvndtland,tate visit to Sweden, said she is skeptical that the Soviet moves have chanced the regional security situation; Swedish Premier
5 military experts need more time to
recent reaction', of Oslo and Stockholrnt Nordic enthusiasm forocal nuclear-weapons-frce zone is still dampened by skepticism that the USSR would significantly reduce nuclear deployment in the Kola Peninsula area. Nordics believe that discussing the possibility ot suche zone helps build confidence and reinforces the "Nordic oaiance" but that actuallyuclear-free zone might be risky. Momentum toward establishingone, which hasecent years, appeared to waver In August when Nordic Foreign Ministers failed toegional working group to study the concept.F) -CIA, OlA. NSA-
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HERSSR: Lubbnre'a Visit IO Moscew
Prime Minister Lubbers end Foreign Minister van denoscow tomorrow for two day* ot teats. East-West arms controlilLjnd bi jhtji trade are likely to too tne ejenda.
Ambassador to (no Netheruestedughly puuhcired interview that the talks should locus on common positions on security Issues, and he hinted at thc possibilityoint communique Dutch media attacked the Interviewrude effort to OviiJc the Netherlands from Its allies and argued the talks should concentrate on trade issues inateac
USSR'NICARAGUA: Official Soviat Slalemanl
USSRtatement on Monday demanding an end to US preparations for dared matliary action against Nicaragua. Clswrwtg the US Justifies lis antl-Sancinlsfa policy by citing an increased Soviet military presence in Nicaragua, the statement asserted) mat "the USSH did not and does not set up any military bases whatsoever inoscow reaffirmed Its support lor ihe Contadora peace process bui also Stated its readiness to assat and support Managua Also. TASS warned that the US election results presaged increasing resistance to President Reagen'a Nicaraguan policy and quoted Nicaraguan President Ortega's claim that the President plans armed intervention against Nicaragua before Congress reconvenes Last week. Prevda accused the US of readying materiel deliveries. Including Stinger aurlsee-to-air missiles, for tne rebe*S
Moscow hastatement In support of Nicaracua only once beforeihe day o' the US invasion of Granada It hopes to score propaganda points In Lalin America witn this statement, but the authoritative tone inOlcatos It also is attempting to remove any prelesl for US intervention in Nicaragua and to warn against mcreasngoMlcai activities there. Current Soviet attention apparently is motivated by iheffensive capability that renewed Congressional funding wil provide the insiirnmts nnrt tw the dim prospectsontadora peace treaty
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et
FRANCE-IRAN: Normalizing Relations
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Franca and Itan haverotocol under which Paris will0 million at the first Step toward settling their longstanding financial dispute and restoring diplomatic rpinions, according lo an fafMOuncemeni by the French Fc
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IFrance has probably made the first payment on the financial setllemenf. and Foreign Minister Raymond may travel totoon loomprehensive accord and restore full diplomatic relations. Paris hopes toew moro hostages back alter lha first payment, and Ratmond probably expects, rtoetngnr. ic be treedesult of full normell
PERSIAN GULF-IRAN: Shipping Attacks R
ships trading with Kuwai* were recenily set afSe in attacks In Ihe lower Persianmall UAE-flag bulk carrier was hit on Saturdayiberian-flag tanker was struck on Monday. The tanker, which was hit in the engineroom at nighthip-launched missile, was surveyedmall patrol craftearchuoht oeilore Ihe attack
iTehren has apparently returned its attacks on Arab shippingiatus of more thanweeks Monday's strike and the seven preceding attacks by Iranian forces on shipping have been against vessels trading with Kuwait The strike on Monday would be only Ihe third confirmed night attack since Iran began its,attacks on shipping4 trans resort to night attacks and moro lethal Ship-launched missiles will deny toost of their passiveto avoid being struck.*"
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BRAZIL:Lcaha About Nuclear Program
A reputable newspaper in Rio de Janeiro tail week revealed Army plans touclear reactor to produce ptuton.um. Trws is tne latesteries of recen: press reports about tbe potential miliiary use of Brazil's Indigenous nuclear research program. Previous disclosures Involved an alleged nuclear weapons.iest she and unsateguarded uranium enrichment protect;
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_|AJtnougniarney nas avoided any public accounilng of the direction, funding, and organizational control of these programs, he is probably worried that continued revelations couldajor political problem. Nuclear salety Isonlentlous political Issue in Rio Siato. tha site of Brazil's only1 operating nuclear power plant. Moreover, leftists *ln the Constituent Assembly could use the nuclear issue loaliack the. military ano* Curb Its power under the new constitution aaBBasV
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Terrorlal Watch
The French tcr rest groupecto yesterday too* credit torssassination In Pans ol Renault's president, apparently In retaliation lor recent layoffs the company had made. This was the group's first murder since II Wiled General Audran Inllhough it tried to kill the president of Frsnce's Employers' v Association last April Action Directs hadow profile since Paris tightened securityeries of Middle East-sponsored bombings in Pa/Is in September, but early this month li returned to action, setting off ftve small bombs The group isto continue attacking its traditional targets In order to cltaienge recent governmeni claims of successes against terrorism.!
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Special
With the Insurgency
the pair iwo months.0 Inturgentt ol the htoismblcan National Roslttanct. becked by South Africa, hove mode unprecedented gelns In centrel Moxemblque end here publicly thieetened to Intensity their ettecks In the south ana along thea.transporter/on corridor. Although Presto-set Chlssanes new regime probably wilt be eblo lo blunt PEN AMOS offensive. It cannotecisive mllltery victory without massive eilernal asslstence and ultlmetely may hove toegotiated statement with the rebels.
NAVO has been waging en mcreas'ngry effective light against the MoiimO-an Government since shortly afterirst wiih Rnodeuan and later South Atncan assistance, the rebels have launched Intermittent, smalt-scale attacks that have tied down government forces, disrupted transport, andeavy toll on Ihe economy and the civilian population
Recent Rebel Gamt
have cr
si vc In central Mozambique rategic towns In Tetojnfl.
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esult, moreol government(3)
RENAMO gains have been particularly disturbing to Chissano and other Mozambtcan leaders Rebel attacks have been larger and better coordinated than in the past, and RENAMO has maintained control over captured towns for longer periods than before The rebel successes came at the end of the dry sea^fl.when government lorces traditionally nave had the advantage.
Southo th
ipprars to have increased Its logistic and conservative, pro-We stern insurgent
denies that it pro views the aidoresence ir African* have an interest in see disruptedyoutes tNat keep Zimba dependent on Prelcna.
continued
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Proa pacta
In iho next several months, the rebels' primary aim probably will ii- to consolidate thalr hold over newty won territory in central Mozambique. In addition, Ihey may try to capture the coastal town ol Ouehmane. which wouk) oUow them to receive South African logistic support by sea and would virtually partition the country. They also may try lo intensify attacks In the Betra corridor, whereimbabwean troops Stand guard,ne south, which is a
governmentefended by Uaputo'S hest(3]
The new government will probablyard line at first towardandilitary solution. Government troops are likelycentral Mozambique and recapture aevaralpresumably will continue his predecessor's policy ofreorganize, retrain, and reequlp the demoralised andMe Is also likely to keep International attention focused onlinks to South Africa and to appeal for more
assistance from Zimbabwe and other Frontline(3.
Tho war wilt remaintalemate for tne near term.a|or Increase In South African assistance to RENAMO or massive outside assistance to government forces would significantly alter the situation. Over the next year. Chissano may follow late President Machet's precedent and quietlyegotiated settlement with the rebels Umii Chissano has had time to conaol.dste his power In Maputo and the current lebel offensive has run Its course, however, both the governmentprpbahlv wai be reluctant to enter into serious
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Special Analysis
Hurling Regime
Serious shortage* ot necessities, caused In part by Iraqi air attaekM, are fomenting unretl among key loner-elaas aupportars of the Iranian regime. The economic situation Is contributing to political maneuvering among opposing clerical tactions. '
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Over Ihe past severs) months, Iraqi attacks and lower oil prices have seriously Increased Inflation, unemployment, and snoriages ot goods In Iran. Tehran has responded by imposing strict austerity measures
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unemployment,hird ot the labor force, willteelworke'S in Esfahan are to Be laid Off or retired
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There have been demonstrations and open grumbling throughout the country In response to these riotern r
continuod
Disregard tor authority appears to bay at popular tolerance Is wear ii
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Political Maneuvering and Military Strategy
stridently criticized the management ot the economy. Radicals have been using tne shortages as an excuse to crack flown onbazaar merchants, who generally support conservative politicians
By leoe-ardiring support for tne regime, economic difficulties have intensir.eo pressure on Tehran to show progress in the war. The government has tried to lustily the huge mobilization ol the past several months In part hv rernlndino the populace that sacrifices ai necessary lorMctor
, hmited eb*ty to retaliate eftecttvi action on the ground
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Nonetheless.urc -ragTatr attacks or to harder for ihe regime to put off taking
Outlook
Shortage* inflation, and unemployment win aa grow worse in Ihe month* ahead. Iraq appears determined to keepacilities, especially refineries. Effective atrlkes would cause current shortages of heating fuel to become severe this winter Even if Iranian oil exports recover, relatively low world crude prices will contlnuo lo make it difficult tor Tehran .ig sustain the war at current levels and lo keep tha economy afloat
Antueovne sentiment among the lowerbackbone of the government'sincrease In response to Ihe economic deterioration.ajor military victory would buy Tehran lime, domeatlc pressure to solve the country's economic problems will continue to build. If economic privations are combinedajor defeat, the regime would have lo reconsider ita aggressive military pcecy and devote more of US resources to Shoring up domestic suppori
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Original document.
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