southloser look at the may election mm
result* of th* May whiles-only general election in South Africa have been widely interpretedramatic shift lo ihe right in white politics. We believe, however, ihat this analysis ignores importani changes lhat have occurred in the policies of South Africa's political parties and in white opinion. Just as white attitudes have changed in rcccnl years, to has tbe alignment of parties along the political spectrum. Although the election resultshift to the right in the comf.ii]inm of parliament, wc do not believe, based on polling data, thai theyghiward shift in white ideology'. i
Background In Realignment
Assessingrelationship between voter alliludei .ind support for political parties is complicated by ihc changes in white politics since1 election. In rcceni years the NationalIhe parly of "grandundertaken at least in itsracial reforms, including scrapping tbe Mixed Marriages Act, amending the Immorality Act. modifying or eliminating more than JO laws relating to Influx Control, andultiracial, tricamcral Parliament. The party is now considering formulas to provide blacks some form of political participation at ihe national level.hole, these policies are significantly more reformist thinrty's platform in1 election pjjjjajjjj
Other developments since1 election have also changed Ihc relationship oflu.nl parties lo the cloctorale.7 National Party parliamentariansight-of-center party when they defected to form the Conservative Party. On the other side of the spectrum, ihc Progressive Federal Party (PFP) in recent years has moved Mill further to the left, calling for the unbanning of the ANC and negotiations with blacks without preconditions. The PFP has even inched away from Ihc entrenched racially based "group" concept of Soulh African poliiicsBjfJBJM
re lion
Although for the first time8 more voles were cast for opponents to the right of ihe Natiostal Party than for candidates on tbe left, we believe the May election returnsepositioning of parties on the political spectrum ratherramatic rightward shift of Ihc electorate.surveys of while opinion and election result indicate* thai white voting behavior was guided by attitudes on two keyand reform, lileciion returns, for example, lend to confirm surveys lhat whites have moved slightly leftward on reform issues in recent years, but remain steadfast in their concern for security. Parties most dearly associated with strong securityNational Pany, Conservatives, and Hcritigic Nasionalealrrvosiercent of the tolal vote, roughly equivalent to ihe level of white concern over security-related issues expressed in surveys. At the same lime, however, far more whiles voted for varying degrees ol reform lhan in any previous election.1 only the PFP was clearly associated with major reforms of apartheid,t was clear ibat voters also viewed ihe Nationalistsroreform party. Parties favoring varying degrees and paces ofNationalists, PFP. aod the small New Republic Parly, and proreform independents received aboutercent of the vote, close to the combined percentages ol whites who in recent polls either supported or expressed ambivalence toward key reform questions.^
The ruling party did well in the election, in our view, because its platform of reform and repression encompassed these two key elements in white opinion. In contrast, the opposition parties' platforms were attractive to narrower segments of the electorate. The lefiwing parlies offered accelerated reform bul paid
lilllc alien lionhiles' security concerns, while (he righlwing parlies matched (he National Parly on the security issue but staunchly opposed any further reform,i)
A Divided AfrikanereIcfoRcnous National Parly
The recent election apparently rev-oNrd more around issues than party loyalty, and these issues sharply divided the Afrikaner electorate Wilh Ih* ruling party's move towardignificant loss ofAfrikaner supewt to tbe right was inevitable, in ouraajsjojaji however, that Nt| surprised when they lost approximately SO percent of the Afrikaner vote to righlwing parties. New support from ihe English-speaking community, however, saved Ihe party's healthy parliamentary majority Almostercent of English speakers voted for ihc Nationalists, probably, according to the US Embassy, because they have lost confidence in thearties as vehicles of reform and out of concern for the left's failure to assure white security above all else m
esult, (he National Party is no longer Ihe partyirtually united Afrikanerdom. Instead, it is supportedluid coalition of whites who have diverse cultural backgrounds and widely variedreform, and the economy. The shifting voting ptitKnt* of the election suggest to us that the Nationalists' newthenot be firmly dedicated to the party.
ational Parly After Ihe Flection The ruling party is likely toiddle-of-the-road position. Party leaders will continue to combine reform and repression on the assumption ihat reform must be coupled with coercion io contain ihe black opposition Wc believe Nationalist leaden will tend to err on the lick of satisfying whiles. Change will be implemented very slowly to minimize white concern, and the party will always stress tough security responses lo black unrest. J
Parly leaders, however, will be sensitive to changes in white attitudes thai could lead to increased support for ihe Conservative Party or defections from the Nationalists' new English constituency. Therefore, if party leaders come to believe lhai ihc ruling party stands lo lose more while support to opposition panics, we believe the party will move to postpone the9 electionast resort, wc would even capect the Nationalists touspension of parliament to attempt to prevent ihe collapse of their party |
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