DIRECTORATE OF DTCilCDiCE
7
Iran-Iraq: Lull in the Culf anti-Shipping bar flj^
Both Iran and Iraq see ahort-tera advantages tolull In attacka on chips in the Persian Culf. attack by Iran took place onay and Iraq'astrlice was onay. Iraq la pleased bynternational efforta to press Iran to andand by heightened tension between Tehran and In ahort, tha Iraqis have little to gainby renewing the antl-ahipplng war in tha Culf. to strengthen its longstanding clala that the keyla ending Iraqi attacks. Iraq startedwar anda las It haa atrock shipsretaliation. Iran also hopes that ita restraint willne UN actions directed at eroding the Iran-Iraq otj*.
Despite the current hiatus, aounting pressures on Iran and Iraq are likely to lead to renewed attacks on Culf ships. Iraq probably will resuae attacks IT lt perceives that the
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superpowers are reducing effort* to end tne war or are losing Interest in the Gulf. When the US implements Its protective aeasures for Kuwaiti shipping, Iran ls likely to renew strikes against non-eaaorted shipping, lay Bines near Kuwait, and possibly look for opportunities to strike escorted OS-flag vessels. The enmncos also will increase that Iran will conduct terrorise against OS Interests In trie Culf. fJJFJ
Iran and Iraq haveucks on Gulf shipping afterotal ofhips so far this year. The last Iraqi alrstrlke was onay after the attack on the OSS Stark. Iran's aost recent aft] attack occurred onay, when itanaaianlan oil tanker.
The eiew Free Baghdad
He believe Baghdad presently aees little to be gained byew round of airstrikes against snipping. Froa Iraq's perspective, the Stark incident and Iran's attackoviet shipay have proved to be blessings by leading toased OS end Soviet af forts to end the war and by casting new strains between Iran and the superpowers. The Iraqis are relieved and pleased thathas shifted froa Iraq's atUck on the OSS Stark to tha Iranian threat ln the Culf. Baghdad probably hopes that Tehran will carry out its threats against the superpower ships protecting reflagged Kuwaiti oil tankers. Iraqi officials alaost aertainly calculate that renewed attacks by Iraq against Iranian ships would anger the superpowers, help the Iranians Justify retaliation against OS andflagged tankers, and possibly Jeapardlra efforts to obtain an effective ares embargo against IranH Security Counci; resolution with sanctions against the side refusing to end the war.
Iranian Calculations
Iran alaost cerUlnly hopes to use the lull in the ship ettecks toeraanent cease-fire ln Culflongstanding policybe free to continue the ground war where it has the upperhand. we believe that Iran expects the hiatus to renlnd the international coeaunlty that Iraq started the anti-shipping war and to substantiate Iran's clala that Tehran attacks ships only ln retaliation for Iraqi strikes. The lull, therefore, strengthens Iran's argument that the key to peace In the Culfermanent Iraqi halt to ship attacks, in wr.ich case superpower protection of Kuwaiti shipping becomes unnecessary. Tehran probably also hopes to wmaken superpower efforts toaf Security Council resolution calling for sanctions.
Pressuresenewed Attacks
Bedhead la concerned that Iran will benefit If the superpowers Mil ft attention ascaya the Iranian threatomprehensive agreement cm the ground war, or atM Security Council resolution with teeth, is achieved. The Iraqis realizea facto cease-fire against Gulfreduces the pressures on Iran. Even though Baghdad kncws that Its attacks in the Culf nave had negligible effects on Iranian oil revenues andIt values thee because they provoke Iranian retaliation against international shipping, demonstrate to Iraqi cltiaens that Baghdad is prosecuting the war, and aay at socte point help Influence Iranian policymakers to negotiate an end to the conflict. fM^ ^
Because Baghdad appears to view attacks on tankers as one of Its few options to press Iran to end the war. It is likely to resume attacks against shipping to and fron Iran or against Iranian land oil facilities, including those on Rhark Island, if It perceives that progressN Security Council resolution and other pressures on Iran are waning. The Iraqis will be fearful of accidentally attacking superpower combatants and nonoombatants, however, and will exercise care to avoid another accident.
Iran probably believes that superpower protection of Kuwaiti shipsrecedent that, if unchecked, will lead to steadily expanding superpower intervention on the side of Iraq and Its Arab allies. This would threaten to foreclose an Iranian victory over Iraq and to neutralize Iran's aim of achieving hegemony in the Persian Gulf. We believe Iran prefers to force the superpowers and Kuwait to back down without having to resort to a
military clash.
If Iran falls to achieve this objective and the US implements Its protective measures, Iran ls likely to resume attacks against unescorted Kuwaiti ships and perhaps lay sea mines near Kuwait. The possibility would also Increase that Tehran would launch terrorist operations against US interests io tha Gulf and elsewhere, we believe that Iran would probe cautiously for opportunities to attack escorted US-flag ships, hoping bo increase significantly the Culf states' concern and Intensify debate In the united States about the wisdom of US involvement. Tehran Is likely to hope thatebate would weaken US resolve and leadS withdrawal. Tehran probably will forego attacks on Soviet-flag ships as long as it perceives that Its strategy of easing tension with Hoscow is making
progress.
Original document.
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