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Persian Quit: Situation Report
Syrian Tensions With Hizballah. Argonllna: Elections Kay to Alfonaln's ProgramanjimKRegJme Moves To Shore Up.
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GULF:
Iranian Ship Attack* Increase
naval foroes hava attached al least lour ships since yesterday In retaliation lor Iraqi alrslrlkes on Iranian tankers and economic focftlttes.l
i Tehran will continue to retaliate In kind tor Iraqi ship attacks, and may also target Gulf shipping in response to Iraqi alrslrlkes on economic and oil facilities In Iran. <
war?Iranlandiliiciiliy YntTnang suitable Kuwaiti targets and lingering anger over the death ol Iranian pilgrims at Mecca In July may have prompted Tehranto expend Its attacks lo Include ships trading with Saudi Arabia
IraqiIncreased the pace of Its elretrtkei on economic targeis
tombing oil and Industrial facilities throughout
southwestern Iran nr^.auacklriq at loosl three ships
Baghdad Is concerned thai Washington's strong objection to Iraq's resumption of attacks reduction Of US support]
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emain roludant lo enter Into any partial
coaao-fl'ro, and negative reactions to Iraqi alrstrlkefl win strengthenuspicion that the US Is rnore Interested In removing the threat to shipping In the Gutt lhan In ending the war. The Iraqis probably believe that heightened tensions In the Gulf wm gtve Foreign Minister Tartq Azta and Arab League demotions greater leverage In talks this rnonlh with UN Security Councilthe reluctant to Impose sanctions on Iran Ipjfjpjsjt
2 September IB87
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SYRIA-LEBANON; Syrian Tensions wiih Hizballah
Syr'an forces are malnfofnfne pressure on Hizballah Inr/ie reforn of US Journalistlass, andro be try/no fo reassert th* leadership of AmalBarri within tha Lebanese Shia community."3
are incrBaslns belwean the Amal and Hizballah militiasBekaa Valley because of Amal's cooperaiion with theHizballah there,"
j Damascus appears determined to capitalize on restrictions It Imposed on Hizballah and Iran following the abduction of Glass In June to promote Its position in Lebanon. Syria probably feels it Is worth trying to relnvlgprate Barrl's leadership of the Lebanese Shia communityow-cost alternative to taking on Hizballah Itself. Damascus wtll take care toajor flareupnarje Syria's strategic relailonshlp
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Argentina: Races To Watch
Aire* Province
Cordoba
Banta Fe
Cong rata
governorship of this prewfnce-ihe nations power cenier ami homehird of the Argentineclearly the mosl critical race. Radical gubernatorial candidate Juan Manuel Caselta and Peronlat rival Antonio Cafkxo. who are running neck and neck, both have presidential ambitions forictory will serve as an Important steppingstone tor those aspirations.
The Radicals -relo maintain their hold on this Industrial end agricultural center, but the Peronlsts. poMing better Ihsn ever, hope lo prove that they can ttxpand their Influence beyond their traditional strongholds. The Radical gubernatorlel candidate, Eduaroo Angetoz, Is also likely loresidential contender, especially if Caseiiauenos Aires.
The Radlcala have gained ground In this densely populated, traditionallyprovince, but their gubernatorial Candida's. Luis Caceres. Is an outspoken critic ot Allonsln and haa not received strong endorsement trom naUonal party leaders.
he Peronlsts reduce the Radlcala* current majority In the lower houselurality, the ruling party should bs able to retain working control with Ihe aid ot small, center-right provincial parlies. An outright Peronist majority Inhighly unlikelysertousry Impede Allonsin's ability to govern during hit remaining twoffice.
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Key to Alfon.in's
Conpreae/ona/ and gubernatorial elmcttont on Sunday millaiarmlna thoor tho 1M9 praatdantlal race and
Intluencn PiaHdent Altonaln'% political atrangth torof hit(3
These are lha second off year elections since ArgentinacMKen rule3 snd represent substantial progressdemocracy. Hall ofheot Congress will be contested, along withrovincial legislature seals, and0 uoffices.'
*attBBsUeV Most observers expect Atfonsln's fladlcal Party
as In the past because ot th* recent rise to commenceounger.
mora appealing reformist Paronist faction. Th* Radicals may also lose
ground to several provincial conservative parties that have performed
well or.local level, especially on economic(31
A victory by the Radicals would reinforce AffonsJn's polilical authority.by tha Aprs miliary crisis and continued econ. and enab'e him to push for constttutloneJ reform. He
j him to runecond ierm Aallow him to implement aome of the free-marketthai have lain largely dormant since he introduced the uprogram iwo year* sgo
A closer result would help revitalize the Peronist Party, whichworking hard to overcome kxvjstandlng problems suchfactionalism and an authoritarian Image. Even if theworking control oftrong Peronist showingthe party to begin to functionore
participant hi the country's fragile two-party tiy-him
Both the Radicals and the Peron rsts consider thiseferendum on Allonaln's performance, as wellry run tor8 presidential election. The candidate* who doarticularly hi tha race foe governor of Buenos Aire*W be best post-kynexJ to represent their party9
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Moves To Shore Up Support
t.y lha Panamanian regime fo otrtfreaa If support ar* unilkalf lo reauca politic*! ' '3
The regime has unveiled proposals lor socialenactmentrvtl servicelo pacify public employees whose suppon appears lo be wsnmg. according to the US Embassy. Government workers are sinking today to press the regime to grant lhe right to unioniie. rehire employees dismissed for alleged participation in opposition activities, and fulfill promises of salary andncreases aaaMaaka
CM" Crusade may modify '" ?
plans for further marches and rallies In lower-Incomeon an opposition march on Sunday by prorogtmo leftists lett_protester dead and several
In the governmenttrying to exploit the situation to exact further concessionsregime. Panama City appears prepared to compromise onme workers' long-Seid grievances to avoid alienating abut it will have serious difficulty meeting theirThe regime may move lo rein in progcvernment leftiststo use public worker dissatisfaction to increase theirTheillingness tolind eye toopposition orolesterajifm hfiefl jenslons high and may leadviolence
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USSR-IHAN: Retsanjani (nviled to Moscow
Ratsanjanl
as the Soviets ran In the wake of renewed
The USSR has invited Iranian Assembl Moscow inontinue to probe tor an opening to Tt US-lronlan tensions.!
Tani accepted Uie invitation and said hot an opportune time. Soviet media have not monllonod the exchange."!
would be tbe highest level Iranian to visit the JSSR since tho Shah's fall. The Soviets might raise the possibilityooting with General Secrotary Gorbachev to elicit potttlcal uoncesalons from Tehran. Moscow would llko to porsuodo Tehran to" atop harassing the Tudeh Communist Party, to reduce Bupport for the Atghan insurgents, and to grant an Increased Soviet diplomatic presence In Iran. Iran wouldisitajor step toward better relations with Moscow andounter to the increased US presence in the PersianTehran might also soo It as reinforcing Moscow's inclination to delay action on proposed UN sanctions on Iran'
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cuador's former Air Fore* Commander Vargas named SoclaOsl - presidentialerennial coup plotter has limited
rratic behavior may worsen unstable politicalalready alarmed military to Intervene.
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