During September
Anti-Sandinists Insurgency: Key Indicators The Sandinista Regime: Key Indicatora Government and Insurgent Activity,7 Nicaraguan Clashes,7
Trends in Nicaraguan Fighting,SeptemberAir Resupply,SeptemberTroops Inside Nicaragua,Septemberand East European Arms Deliveries to
Foreign Advisers in
Western Aid to
Nlcsrsguan Human Rights
Human Rights Developmente
Human Rights Developments
During September
and Rebel ActivityT7
EVENTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA
NICARAGUA
Developments During September
The Insurgent Effort
Although the signing of the Central American peace plan had little direct impact on our key indicators, we expect some significant shifts in the coming months. In September, top rebel political leaders concentrated on countering the regime's portrsyal of them as obstacles to peace. In sddltion to releasing somerisoners of war, the rebels followed up on earlier statements that they were willing to negotiate with Managua byegotiating commission composed of three prominent exiles and two regional commanders. Insurgent leaders, however,nilateral cease-fireannounced by the Sandinistas, labeling theuse.
Most rebel field commanders remain deeply opposed to the regime and are likely to continue fighting. The conditions sttached to the current Sandinista amnesty lsw--whlch, -
require anyone accepting amnwatyearry documentation laentifying himselfounter-revolutlonsry--probably will discourage many from surrendering. The Insurgents, however, will find it difficult to continue operations if Cardinal Obando, head of the recently formed National Reconciliation Commission, calls on them toell-defined ceaae-fire. Even without the Cardinal's urging, soma Indian and Southern Front commanders may be willing to break with the lnaurgent Directorate and negotiate with tha regime. Continued US funding remaina the moat critical variable for rebel morale,
Over the last month, the level of fighting remained steady. Insurgents hit one Sandinista military garrison but generally continued their focus on small-unit operations, including road ambushes and attacks on economic targets. The0 rebelsesult of the ongoing aerial resupply effort and able to draw on materiel cached over the past severalwill be able to stay on the attack in the weeks ahead. Although the regime's military durability and ongoing psychological warfare campaign have probably exacerbated conflicts among insurgent commanders and hurt morale, the fighting is likely to remain at the same level through most of October,eneral cease-fire. In the absencelear international consensus that Managua is violating the accord, Tegucigalpa probably will begin curtailing the use of rebel camps in Honduras for military training and resupply by the end of October. I
The Sandinista Raging
Managua's aggressive efforts during September to comply with the Central American peace plan were designed, in our opinion, to disarm the regime's domestic political opponents and international critics. In addition, the regime sought to damage insurgent morale and sow discord between rebel leaders and their field commanders.
The Sandinistas announced that both Che independent newspaper. La Prensa. and the Catholic Church's radio station would be free to reopen without censorship. Earlier, Managuaaw allowing the confiscation of property of cltisiens living abroad, pardoned someoreign prisoners, andialogue with the Internalinsurgents who accept the government's aainestyin esrly October.
Under the government's partial, unilateral cease-fire, Managua would postpone offensive military operations in parts of Jinotega, Nueva Segovia, end Zelaya Departments. Government troops in these locations would be concentrated at designated locations and defend themselves only if attacked. Tho withdrawal of government troops from these areas would not give the rebelb control over major segments of the population.
refusing to negotiate directly with top insurgent leaders, the Sandinistas are calling for talks between guerrilla field commanders inside Nicaragua and local peace committees-composed of prominent citizens, clergy, and relatives ofthe National Reconciliation Commission. Obando
" [realises that he is being used by tne Sandinistas and tnat tneir plan is aimed at dividing the insurgents. Nonetheless, he has so far appeared willing to help implement the cease-fire. His participation could give the Sandinista proposal greater credibility in coming weeks because the Insurgents view himoral leader. |
Growing numbers reportedly welcome an
La Prensa'a owners have agreed
The internal opposition has been slow to exploit opportunities presented by the reforms. emonstration by the Social Christian Party inarticipants chanted anti-Sandlnista slogans--)
dissident leaders are reluctantniront tne
regime
exei
ircise rearrainT: in tneir cr; permission to publish. The opposition also remains weakened by personal and ideological infighting.
Meanwhile, tha Sandinista armed forces have intensified efforts to Interfere with aerial resupply to the rebels.
[the
Sandinistas have OtQaBlEeO special troops armea wrthndissiles, small antiaircraft guns, and hlghpowered searchllghte to ambush insurgent resupply flights. Heavy rains and helicopter malntensnce problems, however, have disrupted Ssndinista logistics in some areas.
6
SECJ
TRENDS IN NICARAGUAN FIGHTING7
points on this graph represent weekly totals of clashes reflected in all sources, and the line shows an eight-week moving average to indicate the overall trend, only those clashes identified by date and location are dueag in rcnortinri, data for recent weeks are incomplete.
lashes moving average
nov
fct
NUMBER OF TROOPS
TROOPS INSIDE NICARAGUA
Soviet Bloc and Cuban Arms Deliveries to Nicaragua
ml
e Flrtt three Thii graph
Recant Developments
The estimated value of Soviet Bloc military deliveries to Nicaragua0 million for the first nine monthsompared to0 million during the same period last year-Materiel sent directly from the USSR dropped sharply during the third quarter, but shipments from Cuba increased substantially. No major weapons systems have been identified in deliveries since late June.
the Nicaraguan cargo vessel
Arac'ely arrived at Puerto cahezas oneptember and Rama oneptember after loading at the Cuban port of Mariel earlier in the month.
Cubans
Soviets
East
Europeans
Military
Recent Developments
Nothing to report.
8
SKCi
&
Include* MtlaUnca froa wltilataral BO/arrmntel. and privatea up caa.
montna only.
TMi or sen la clMSlHM
'13
s3
eveloptaentB
is0 percent mereas in bilateral assistance to Nicaragua
the Swedishillion-
Peruvian press reported that Lima0 barreli of oil totwo days' worth ofearly September. To date, this is the only Western oil shipment in response to Nicaragua's plea in early summer for assistance from countries outside the Soviet Bloc.
9
SECF
NICARAGUAN HUMAN RIGHTS CHRONOLOGY
In September, allegations of human rights abuses by both the insurgents snd the Sandinistas increaaed moderately from August. The rebels releasedandinista prisoners to Costs Ricen authoritiesesture of compliance with the Central American peace plan. The head of an independent human rights group and an opposition leader, arrested by regime officislsemonstration in mid-August, were released one week beforeday sentence was to expire. |
INSURGENT HUMAN RIGHTS DEVELOPMENTS
uguet
Rebel forces kidnapedarmers in Jlnotega Department,
ugust
The Defense Ministry charges that insurgents kidnapedeasants nesr Nueva Guinea, southern Zelaya Depsrtment.
Late August
One civllisn was killed and four woundeduerrilla attackooperative in Boaco Department,
9 September
An insurgent attackooperative in Matagalpa Department left two civilians dead and at least ten houses burned, according to regime press.
eptember
One civilian was killed, three were wounded, and three houses were burneduerrilla attackooperative in Matagalpa Department, according to Sandinista press.
eptember
The regime press says three civilians were wounded by an insurgent-laid mine ln Chontales Department.
eptember
Rebel forces kidnaped two civilians ln Jlnotegato Sandinista press.
The proraqime proas says one civilian waa killed andoundedusuerrilla-laid mine in Chontalea Department.
eptember
An official from the Miniatry of Agricultural DevelopmentAgrarian Reform was killed and two companions wounded when their vehicle was ambushed by rebel forces in Nueva Segovia Department, according to Sandinista press.
eptember
The proregime press says insurgents kidnaped three civilians in Jinotega Department. |
eptember
The rebela releasedandinista prisoners to Coots Rican authoritiesesture of compliance with the Central American peace plan, according to international press. Onlyf the prisoners chose to return to Nicaragua. i
One civilian was killed and two woundeduerrilla ambuahugboat in southern Zelaya Department, according; to Sandinista press. |
The administratortate farm in Chontales Department was killedeasant worker woundedebel attack, according to government press.
eptember
Two civilians were killed and one wounded whenmortarsettlement in Jinotega Department,Sandinista preas.
eptember
The regime press charges that two insurgent ambuahesDepartment resulted in one civilian death and
civilians in Chontales Department were kidnaped by guerrillas, according to government press; one of these civilians eventually was killed.
eptember
Five civilians in Chontales Department were kidnapedovernment
three civilians were killedehicle from the nicaraguan institute of natural resources and environmentebel-laid mine in northern zelaya department, according to regime press.
23 september
the government press saya one civilian was kidnaped when insurgents ambuahed two ministry of construction trucks ln matagalpa department.
sandinista human rights phents
ugust
a peasant ln northern zelaya department was beatenby regime |
L
ugust
regime troops brutally beat a
paaaant" in aoutnern aeiaya uapartment and ransacked his house.
I
eptember
in jinotega department, sandinista military forces were demanding food from peasants under the threat of forcible recruitment and destroying peaaant gardens snd fields, [
6 september
the same group of soldiers, cli
be rertel rorces, siso assaulted and robbed another civilian in the same area. |
8 september
the regime released from jsll the head of thehuman rights commission and an opposition leaderbeforeday aentence was to end, accordingpress. the two men had been arrestedrying to organise an opposition march in managua. I
sandinista troops assaulted andoman in aoutnern zelaya department and beat and raped her two daughters.
Sandinista military forces indiscriminately firedivilian village in Jinotega Department for one hour, f
September
r
Six Sandinista soldiersoman in Boaco Department,
eptember
Seven civilians were killed when the Sandinista Airfiredillage in southern
Mid-Septamber
ivilians were killed when the Sandinista Air Force indiscriminately fired on four villages in Zelaya Department.
eptember
. L _civilian was killed
when Sandiniata troops indiscriminately firedillage
Three civilians were killed when Sandinista militaryfiredillage in central Zelayatwo hours,
Sandinista military forces beat and robbed peasantsfive villages In northern Zelaya Department,
eptember
One civilian was killedwounded when Sandiniata
troops Indiscriminately firedvillage in""'
20
Eight women andhildren from Jlnotega Department were kidnaped by Sandiniata military forces,
eptember
Two infants were killed and three women were wounded when the Sandinista Air Force indiacrininately firedillage ln central Zelaya Department, f
eptember
At least three civilians were detained by Sandiniets authorities during family day at the Las Manos border crossing, when Nicaraguan exiles in Honduras meet relatives just inside Nicaragua. One of the detained victims was released shortly after being beaten and Interrogated by government officials.
to rescue one ot .the detainees' reportedly Mere beaten and robbed by regime authorities.
Original document.
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