MIDDLE EAST BRIEF FOR 28 SEPTEMBER 1987.

Created: 9/28/1987

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

SUBJECT] Ml DDI[ EAST BRIEF FROM: PAS. CONTENTS

I. PERSIAN CULT: SITUATION REPORT

UNISIA:N OA/IET TRIAL ENDS

3. O!A: AFTERMATH Of HUNGER STRIKE

IN BRIEF 1. PERSIAN GULF: SITUATION REPORT

THE TANKER WAR HEATS UP

P.AQlSHE. STRUCKf^ja^

COSST in ADO ITI ON TO HITTING THEC IL'TT NEAR Bib

SECRET

b',b3

0 u

G C

i

r.

G

V

i

s s

A

G

C ii

1 G

3

I

N

c

G E

0

u

T

c

0

]

N

G If

s

&

fj E

-' Acprcved tor Rotaasa

g. Jll 9

BAGHDAD CONTINUES TO

TANKERS AND PETROLEUM TARGETS. IRAN IS I L '0 RETU ATE FOR THESE ATTACKS AND THE ATTACK nH THf AN AJ^QJICE. TEHRAN DECIDE. PEST TACTICAL

THREATS OF RETALIATION AGAINST THE US CONTINUE

THAT THEY OEPENDtO ON WASHINGTON'SEFERENCE TO THE RETURN OF THE IRANIANS KILLED DURING THE AJS SttACK. IRANIAN PRESIDENT KHAMENEI HAD CLAIMEO OUR ING FRIDAY

SABBATH SERMON IN, ^NVW WHO YOUTHS" ARE RETURNED, "AMERICAN NATION" WILLHO

IRANIAN LEADERS ARE INCREASING DOMESTIC EXPECTATIONSETALIATORY STRIKE AGAINST THE US WITH MENACING STATEMENTSVENGING THE AJR ATTACK. FOLLOWING CABIWfT SESSION YESTERDAY. IRAN'S PRIME MINISTER MUSAVl-KHAHENEI WAS QUOTED IN TEHRAN'S OFFICIAL PRESS AS SAYING. "WHAT CONCERNS US IS THAT WE SHALL RESPONO TO THE US MISCHIEF." PEECH THE DAY BEFORE. MUSAVl HAD STATED. "THE GREAT SATAN WILL RECEIVEECiSlVE BLOW FOR ITS MISCHIEVOUS ACTS IN THE PERSIAN GULF THAT ALL ITS REGIONAL LACKEYS WILL REGRET

itMiTrtM.f SPEAKING IN

AMERICAN

i mibhu.vi

RESPONSIBLE FOR CAUSING THE TRQ.1LES. KHAMENEI ALSO QUOTED AS SAYING IRAN WILL "MAKE NO COMPROMISE IN ITS WARANO VOWS TO RESPONO TO RECENT US MILITARY ACTIONS INGULF."

TEHRAN'1 CONTINUED THREATS MAINTAIN THC LIKELIHOOD OF k* IRANIAN RETALIATION FOR THE AJR ATTACK. IRANIAN LEADERS PROBABLY ARC RELUCTANTHEIR CREDIBILITY BY FAILING TO FOLLOW WORDS WITH ACTIONS. M

2. TUNISIA: T TRIAL ENQS

THE DECISION OFUNISIAN COURT YESTERDAY TO SFNTfNfF RATHFB^TiJiii' ta Hi?" TOLABOR FOR LIFE

SSIh THl 'RESPECTAJOR OU'BREAA IN THE SHORT TERM. BUT

lSgeS TERM'SLjUpTj"TO CONTINUE TO GROW OVER THE

ABSENTIA-WWHO WERE IMPLICATED

.,. DfR 0' THE PRINCIPAL ISLAMIC GROUP. THE iuit^L, IE"0tMCY fjrrO HIS LIFE SENTENCE FORO-EO WARNINGS FROM WESTERN DIPLOMATSEATHURTV"FUI1NOAMENTALIST QPPOSlT.ON TO PRESIDENTOVERNMENT. THE COURT, HOWEVER OlO SENTENCE SEVEN OTHER FUNDAMENTAL ISTSG FIVI IN

U 7

M E

s s

C

u

G

0

1

N 6

s

G t

c

U

T"

G

0

I

N G

M

5 S

G t

UlSlAN Officii ARE NOT FULLY

COMMENT: THE TUNISIAN COURTS ARE NOT FULLY INDEPENDENT. ANO THE GOVERNMENT ALMOST CERTAINLY INfLUENCEO THE JUDGES' DECISIONS. TUNISIAN LEADERS PROBABLY HOPE THE SEVEN DEATH SENTENCES WILL COW FUNDAMENTALIST EXTREMISTS. THEY ARE LIKELY ALSO TO TRY TO USE THE ISLAMIC JIHAO THREAT TO BOLSTER THEIR CLAIM THAT TUNISIAN FUNDAMENTAL!STS HAVE LINKS WITH UNPOPULAR FOREIGN TERRORIST GROUPS.

IATHSO HOPE THAT <

AT THE SAME TIME. HOWEVER. ISLAMIC JIHAO'S THREAT MAY INCREAS: THE GOVERNMENTS CONCERNOSSIBLE FUNDAMENTALIST BACKLASH TO THE EXECUTIONS. ANO GOVERNMENT LEADERS MAY HESITATE IN CARRYING OUT THE SENTENCES. INDEED. THE GOVERNMENTH CHANNOUCHI HIMSELF. PROBABLY BECAUSE IT LACKED EVIOENCE TYING HIM TO THE HOTEL BOMBINGS AND FEAREDEATH SEMT/NCE MIGHTIOLENT OUTBURST AGAINST THE REGIME.

TUNISIAN. LEADERS MAY ALSO HOPE THAT CHANNOUCHI'S IMPRISOVMtNT WILL GIVE THEM SOME LEVERAGE OVER THE LOOSELY ORGANIZED MTI. THE* MAY HOPE. IN PARTICULAR. THAT THEODERATE ELEMENTS CLOSELY ALLIEO WITH HIM WILL TRY TO WIN HIS FREEDOMESTRAINING VIOLENCE-PRONE EXTREMISTS, FUNDAMENTALIST MODERATES. HOWEVER. MAY NOT HAVE HAD THAT MUCH CONTROL OVER THE RADICALS BEFORE CHANNOUCHI'* ARREST, AND THEY ARE LIKELY TO HAVE LESS INFLUENCE AS LONG AS HE REMAINS IN PRISON ANO UNABLE TO PLAY AN ACTIVE ROLE IN THE MTI. %fj

3. SRI LANKA-INDIAi AFTERMATH OF HUNGER STRIKE

INDIAN TROOPS WWNDtO AT LEAST TWO TAMIL CIVILIANSVIOLENT DEMONSTRATIONS IN THE EAST SPARKED BYUHGfR_STR|KER FROM THE LIBERATION TIGERS OF TAMIL EElAM.CONTINUING IN THl

NORTH ANO EAST. SEVERAL MORI HUNGER STRIKERS AFFILIATED WITH THE TIGERS TOOK THE OlAD TIGER DEPUTY LEADER'S PLACEUBLIC STAGE THE IGH COMMISSIONER IN SRI LANKA MET SATURDAY WITH TICER LEADER PRABHAKARAN TO DISCUSS THE TIGERS' FIVE DEMANDS. WHICH INCLUDE HOIDIHC .MAJORITY REPRESENTATION ON THE PROPOSED PROVINCIAL COUNCIL,!

DIlHi MAY NAVE CiVfN rHE TIGERS INSURANCE! HBOUl PRESSING COLOMBO HARDER TO MEET TIGER DEMANDS. THE FUNERAL OF THE TIGERS' DEPUTY LEADER PROBABLY WILL PROVOKE HPRE VIOLENCE BETWEEN INDIAN FORCES AND THE LARGE NUMBER Of CIVILIAN DEMONSTRATORS EXPECTED fOR THE N - THE 'ICERS WILL USE THE DEATH FASTS AND THE TO WIN GREATER POLITICAL INFLUENCE OVER THE TAMIL POPULACE. THE TlCERS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS THE ONVIOLENT OPPOSITION TO THE ACCORO BUT MAY PROVOKE TAMIL CIVILIANS TO OPf-OSE THE INDIAN TROOPS WITH VIOLENCE .

IN BRIEFS

u

1 0

c I

C

M E

S

s

A

G

0

u

T G

1

N

G

M

E S

s

A

6 E

C

i

N

5 .'.

G

SECRET

SIB

Original document.

---

---