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Iran and Iraq see short-ters advanUfaa to tha currant lull ln at Urate on ships in the Persian Oulf. Th* lent attack by Iran took placeay and Iraq's acet recent strike ems onay. Iraq la pleased by the recent Increase ln international efforts to press Iran to end the iv and by heigh toned tension between Tehran and the superpowers. In abort, the Iraqis nave little to gain for earn by renewing, tbe antl-ahlpplns ear In the Gulf. Tehran hopes to strengthen Its longstanding clala that tha bay to pesos Is andlnc Iraqi attacks. Iraq started ths enti-ahlpplni ear end Iran olslas It baa struck snips largely ln retaliation. Iran also hopes that Its restraint sill help line UK so tlons dlreoted et ending; the Iran-Iraq ear.
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Despite the current hiatus, Bountlng pressures on Iran and Iraq are likely to lead to renewed attack* on Gulf ships. Iraq probably will recuse attacks If It perceives that the
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charices'slaw^Wll; hIU conduct terrorise aaalnat US IntereatSv^S
superpowers Interest ln the Gulf:tuna1
strikes aMlrtst nbn-esocrted ai:a 'alliesr and peraalil, lock for cespcSuStlt.
ar*sv.total ofehipa so far thia jeer. The last Ira Hay.day after tba ettaok onn atuck occurred coay, -hen itWanlaToU
Iranian Calculations
US-fla. vessels. TtoncrSaS^tta^afl^^
alac.it certainly hopaa to uaa tha lull ln the ahip attackaa permanent cease-fire ln Gulfona^tandingbe free to oonttnue the ground mr where lt haa He believe that Iran expects the hiatus to reaindcoeaurlty that Iraq atar ted the anti-shipping tsar endIran's olala that Tehran atUoke ehlpn only ln retaliationstrikes. Tom loll, therefore,Iran's argusent thatto peace In the Culfermanent Iraqi halt to ship atteoka,oasa superpower protection of Kuwaiti shipping, becoaeaprot-Dly sloo hopessffortatoaohievaUK
Security Council resolution calling for unctions. |
a precedent that, if unchecked, Mill lead to steadily eipsndirvg auptrpc-tr intervention on th. .Ida of Iraq and ita Arab allie.* oan Iranian victoryraq and to neutralisea of achieving hai.aonT in tha Paralan Gulf. allava Iran prrfara to fore*
If Iran falla to aohlava thla objective and the US Upleaenta ita Electiveranikely to raauae attacks against imeacorted lABtaiU ablpa and perhaps lay sea nines near Kuwait. The possibility would also Increase that Tehran would launch terrorist operations against DS interests la the Gulf and elaavhere. we believe that Iran Mould probe cautiously for opportunltlea to attack escorted OS-flag ships, hoplrtti to
* Gulf -UfcM' ooocern and intensify debate in the united States about the wladoa of US lnvolveeent. Tehran la likely to hope thatebet, would weaken US resolve and lead5 withdrawal. Tehran rx-obabiy will forego attacks on Soviet-flag snips as long aatrategy of easing tension with Hosoow is asking
Original document.
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