Created: 4/23/1988

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pihsian QULf: Situellen Repoil Military Activity

Cemment: Tht apparent minetleid was found nnr major ihippifa lares arid anchorages used Oy unescortedtnot clear rl the various mines discovered this wee- war* part ol Ihe Iranianf on before the USS Robert* wu Ml* tsld mora recently In retalialloi for th* dashes this week with tne US. The SBfworm misilte activity ma, rave been for training or possiblypreparation for deployment

n sS=ssa-onger onu-^axsry to have any sgr>ftcari erectnsr on eamnga Sassan was rotrior lo tnendutput ot0 berrefsea- at cu-reni pr^es represented onfyercent of total Iranian production. Bom platforms were duiit by US companiese revclullor.^^

Comment; Inllial damage assessments Indicato protfucr un Ino resume al Slrri. Nonetheless,ermanent shutdown of the facilitynave Utle Impact because Irarvan onshore production could easily take up the ala=K. In addition, tie oil export shuttl* sysieT win not bo effected because Iran moved he shuTO* cperallor* fromrg to Lara* Island6 fceowing an [racy attack agairet Sim. Iran we probably need Westernfy lo coal tans olner piirerm |

-Tup fai DjL

Iraq Slreeaing tilam

President Seooam Mwiayn used hla auOdan visit Io Saudi Arab* Wednesday to advance his efforts to cloak his lacular regime In mam. Immediately alter the military victory at Al Faw. Saddam Pew to Saud> Arabia to visit Mecca before aeeing tne Saudi leaders in Riyadh He Last performed tne piigrmage ki December iBBS to ceietvate Iraq's defeat of tne Iranianround offensive Saddam named Iraq's recent ground oflenetve after tnevyitn ot Ramadan, launched tne attack on the llrat day ol the monih. and called tne modified Scud mleeaei used In ihe war of ihe cities "Husayn" after the revered Shis martyr^

Cemment: Saddam's adoption ol religious trappings is probab'y an attempt to bccst Iraqi morale and wee-en Iran'a wl to fight During tne seven years o* Sgftttng. me reo/me has rrarrttairisd ts secularism against Iran's call for an Islamic republic in Iraq. At Iha same time, Baghdad has highlighted Iraq leaders' observance of rellg-ous rites, lightened enforcement ot abetlnarce from alcohol during Ramadan, and refuibished Shta sftflnea. J

rtJtorneini has noi appeared in public since Iran's military

defeat at Al Faw and Iran'a losses lo the US naval forces In the Qulf earlier mis week: he often appears during periods of tension in an effort to shore up the regime's leadership. Khomeini's lasttelevised meeting with Air Forcebroadcast onpril. The next most likely timeublic ecpearanc* Is the anniversary of the unsuccessful US mission to rescue Arrjirfcan hostages, which occurred duringndpia

Comment: Although Kfrornelnl sometimes has waiter: several weeks before commenting on major events, rue silence et this t'me isscajse ot the importance to film of the war and ol oppoatiKl the US military presence In tbeis absence couM also be due to physical dsabhity orusyeetttgt to cede* how to react to the recent mUttery setbacks

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