EUROPEAN BRIEF (DELETED) FOR 22 APRIL 1988.

Created: 4/22/1988

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

SUBJECT: EUROPEAN BRIEF, FROM:PAS. CONTENTS

I. PANAMA: SITUATION REPORT 2-

AKISTAN: AfbKAN-POLICr STEADY UNDER-FIRE

BJlCARIA-US: VISIT OF FOREIGN ECONOMICS MINISTER

IN BRIEF

I. PANAMA: SITUATION REPORT O'FICtR PURGtC

DEFENSE CHIEFGA HAS OISMISSED FORMER AMBASSADOR TO ISRAEL . UTiaiAXT rnmnfl ASSAN.OM THEY,

THE RATIONALE FOR HERRERA'S REMOVAL WAS HIS fAIlURl TO OBEY NORIEGA'S ORDER TO RETURN TO PANAMA Af TEA COMPlCTINC HIS ASSIGNMENT IN ISRAlL^MllY LAST MONTH

SECRET

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CA MAS LONG VlHERRERA. WHO IS PRC-US ANO WELL RESPECTED BV FELLOW OFFICERS,IVAL ANO HAS KEPTOUTSIDE THE COUNTRY THROUGH FOREIGN POSTINGS. KORIEGA APPARENTLY OBCERtO HIS RETURN AFTER SUSPECTING THAT HERRERA WAS INVOLVED IH THE COUP ATTEMPT LAST MONTH ANO MIGHT ESTABLISH CONTACTS WITH WASHINGTON. WITH HERRERA'S OlSfilSSAL. THE HILITAPJJJAS LOST ONE OF ITS FEW CAPABL- ArO APOLITICAL SENIORfl CfRS -fa^HR

PROTESTS FLAGGING

ANTI REGIME OCMONSTflATIONS HAVE SEEK FEW THIS WEEK ANDBY THE Mt

EACHERS WERE NOT HARASSED WHEN THEYED WMnESOAY IM FRONT OF THE EOUCATION MINISTRY TO DEMAND THE REOPENING OF SCHOOLS. CASH SALARY PAYMENTS, ANO DEMOCRATIC REFORMS. POLICE HAVE RELEASED ALL PERSONS ARRESTEO LASTFOR CIVIL CRUSAOE-SPOKSOSEO OPPOSITION ACTIVITIES. ALTHOUGH CRUSADE LEADERS PLAN TO BEGIN ANOTHER ROUNO OF PROTESTS SOON. THEY ARE CONCERNED ABOUT OBTAINING CHOUGH FUNDS FOR BAILING OUT THOSE WHO MAY BE ARRESTED. AT THE REQUEST OF PRESISOLlS PACHA, PANAMA'S NATIONAL iSEHBLY HAS LIFTEO THE STATE OF EMERGENCY ESTABLISHED LAST MONTH.

I THE ASSEMBLY'S ACTION INDICATES THE REGIME IS CONFIDENTABILITY TO CONTROL PROTESTS AND OOES NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT UNREST IN THE HEAR TERM. LIFTING THE ErttRGfhCY LEGISLATION PROBABLY IS ALSO IHTENDEC TC ENCOURAGE PERCEPTIONS AT HOME AND ABKOflfJ .THAT. THE REGIME IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ANO NORMALCY

has RiTuPhco. igpprH*.

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AKISTAN: AFGHANISTAN POLICY STEAOT UNDER FIRE

CAL

MANY PAKISTANIS CRE ETEDIVA ACCORDS LAST WEEK WITH FuLIEF ANO GUARDED OPTIMISM, BUT PflESIOINT ZIA AND PRIMEO&TS SjSh'C ATTACK OVIft THI AGREEMENT FROM POL IT

GENEVA" ACCORDS IN PUNJAB ^IMJIVY EMPHASIS ON THI III '

ROVINCE-WHINE MANY Of THE V-ilSS.'J *R1 EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT CONTINUINC TO SUPPLY Aims TO THE RfSI STANCE COULO PROLONG THE FIGHTING ANO

liuTTo'"!

MAW- PUNJAB OPPOSITION LEADERS APR IL EXPLOSION OF AN AfVIUKITI CALLING FOR HIS (USlGS'A

AFGHANISTAN WJOJ^JtW^'

BLAMING ZIA FOR THE

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PTJNS DESTINED ION. AT LEAST TWO

DESTROYED IN THE

JMOST PAKISTANIS THE ACTCAOS.^TmE OPPOSlTl ANO WILL TRY TO USE ANYS TAKING THE EXPLOSION BECAUSE ME IS PAKISTAN PAKISTANIS BELIEVE THE GOVERNMENT PAKISTANI LIVES FOR 1H( RESISTANCE ISBHUTTO IS

-MANYE5 rSTANCT VEO IN TK OPPOSITION PARTIES SAY TNEY MAY SU MAINTAININGJHAT-THI US OWNED THE EXPLOSION m] IfcQ

to reserve judgment onolitical issue ;oviet withdrawal to its the criticism pgr thechief military leader. ands willing. to jeopardize innocent

ANCE. FOR NOW. HDirtVER. THEFOR MEDICAL

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ULGARlA-USi VISIT OF FOREIGN ECONOMICS MlN* STER

IMPROVING TRAOE ANO ECONOMIC TIES TO THE US LEAOS THE AGENDA fORH ECONOiMC RELATIONS At NI STER LUKAHOV, WHO ARRIVES IN WASH INGTON TOMORROW- LUKAHOV WILL ARGUE THAT REFORM UNDER WAY ARE BRINGING BULGARIA'S ECONOMY MORE IN LINE WITH FREE MARKET PRINCIPLES. HE WILL SEEK US SUPPORT FOR SOFIA'S BIOS FOR GATT

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.FOR :ouktr:ts(

NEnBLHSHIP, EVENTUALVQREO-NAT LOW TRADE STAT ANO REDUCED TECHNOLOGY* CONTROLS* 'LUKANCV.

LEVEL BULGARIAN OFFICIAL TG

SOFIA PROBABLY VIEWSROBABLY HOPES THE TRIP WILL A'S REPUTATION. BUT ALMOST

ROSABLY WILLCHIEVEiL^fiY OTHER EAST BLOC

UKANOV IS THE HIGHEST

VISIT THE US SINCE WORLD WAR II, AND

NVITAT(ONIPLOMATIC SUCCESS* HELP EXPAND TRAOE ANO IMPROVE BU.CAfil

CERTAINLY EXPECTS LITTLE PROGRESS IN OBTAINING US SUPPORT FOR GATT

HEWSFRSHtP ANO flOST-FAVOREO-NATI ON STATUS. THE BULGARIANS MAY MAKE SOKE MODEST CONCCSSIGNS- ON NARCOTICS CONTROL. COUNTERTERRORISfl, ANO GXTS, BUT GREATER PROGRESS OH THE US AGENDA IS NOT LIKELY.

LIKELY 8ULGARIAN RESPONSES TO US CONCERNS NARCOTICS:

LUKAHOV MAYEW DRAFT AGREEMENT ON NARCOTICS CONTROL AS EVIOEHCE OF SOFIA'S WILLINGNESS FURTHER TO EXPANO COOPERATION WITH THE US. BULGARIA APPEARS TO HAVE CURQ

TERRORISM!

HUMAN RIGHTS;

DESPITE GESTURES MACE OUR

TARf OF STATE

LUKAHOV WILL USE BULGARIA'S RATIFICATION THIS MONTH OF THE NTERNATICNAL HOSTAGE CONVENT!ON AND ITS PUBLICTI HIJACKING TO SHOW SOf'A'S RESPCNSIVEMESS <

SEpRET

PACE COS TOT:PR SB

WHITEHEAD'S VIS IT'EARLIER THIS YEAR, SOFIA HAS SHOWN HO SIGNS OF EASING ITS RUTHLESS CAMPAIGN FORCIBLY TO ASSIMILATE ITSILLION ETHNIC TURKS. LUKAHOV WILL TRY TO APPEAR REASONABLE Cu THIS ISSUE. BUT US LEVERAGi IS EXTREMELY LIMITED. SOFIA HAS BACKTRACKED ON ITS MODEST ATTEMPTS AT GREATER PRESS FREEDOMS, BUT IT MAY MAKE *MODEST IMPROVEMENTSUCH ISSUES AS DIVIDED FAMILY CASES.

6. IN BRIEF

X--BELCIUH'S INTERIM PRIME MINISTER REVERSING DECISION. NOW WILLING TO HEAD CENTER-LEFTARTIES CLOSE TO AGREEMENT EXCEPT ON ONE ASPECT OF LINGUISTIC PROBLEM . .ARTENS LIKELY TO FIND COMPRDMI SE. FORM EIGHTH GOVERNMENT.

'hasing out exportdesire to curblso clears way for eventual lira convertibility. otherndicates economic

LIBERALIZATION TO COKT :sutMIDDLE EAST

ANNOUNCED IN LEBANON IT WILL TRY LT. COL HIGGINS FOR SPYING. PROBABLY TO REEMPHASIZE HIS VULNERABILITY . . AY BE PART OF IRANIAN-DIRECTED CAMPAIGN FOLLOWING GULF FIGHTING . . NI IKUY TO Ri M

EAST ASIA

FIRST-QUARTER TRADE DEFICIT FELLERCENT/ LEVEL . . . CLFICiT liKELi TOhOUJH AS BE IJINCMPORT CONTROLS. FILLS WESTERN QUOTAS ON TF.XTj.LES . .URPLUS WITH US THIS YIAR LIKELY TOILLION. rWltf

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Original document.

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