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Contents
Quit Situation Report
Nicaragua: Postsummlt Moves
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USSR-NATO: Soviet Views on Tactical Nuclear Arms
Argentina: RanningTOTDebt Contingencies
Ivor/ Coast: PolHica! Concerns
Notes
Soviet Optimism AboutVrsit
USSR-Israel: Soviets Approve Israeli Visit
Sri Lanka: Rnance Minister Dolls
In Brief
Philippines: Early Election Returns...
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JO January 1SS8
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Report
and tha Gulf Cooperation Council
Ground War Davalopmanta
government-controlled press yesterday denouncedproposed dialogue between Iran end members of the Guff Cooperation Council, describing It as contravening November's Arab summit, which condemned Iran for falling toease-fire with Iraq. MhimMi, the vice chairman of Iraq's ruing Revolutionary Command Council, teat Ibrahim, concluded visits to Kuwait and Saudi Arsbis on Monday afterconveying messages from Iraqi President Saddam |
p Baghdad Is concerned thsl any dialogue between the GCC andll weaken the unified Arab position thai emerged from the summit and erode Iraqi efforts to Isolate
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Effect on Civil Liberties ot Lifting ot Nicaragua's State of Emergency
Freedomotmal end to censorship may encourage more open criticismregime. Managua likely lo use indirect measures to curb media.
Freedomprompt greater outflow ol refugees. Internal security forces will
to monitor bus peeled insurgent sympathizers.
Right Toto give boost to Inoenenoent unions, but Labor Ministry wM use
bureaucratic means to help prevent union unrest.
Rjghl lo: cj.isiI blatant sbuses ol revoiul oner, Iribunols. bul SandkVetai
Corpua/Trlal by Jury unlikely to cease prosecution of rebel sympathizers.
Right toto give opposition new opportunity to broaden appeal PoiltlcaJ
stilt reO/jlre government approval. Constitution
limits formation of parties.
'" i-MS. and retmpcead whan IM rww
conailtutlon was
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Poatsummit Moves
W'"ament the concessions President Ortega announced at the Central American summit
leaders Indicate ZrTgLa
^olerate no links between th* rebels and Internal dissidents. L3
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Managua lifted the six-year-old state ol emergency on Monday end abolished the special tribunals used lo try rebel supporters. Onega bound himself to release political prisoners onlyoase-flreis reached or, II talks fall, to non-Central American countries. (jM0m
Ortega promisee that two Nlcaraguans would Join the foreigners ori tho government's delegation lo cease-fire negotiations with themlghl resume as early as nextosta Rica. He has ru'ed out discission ol political issues with the Insurgents.
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'aeJssfasBsssselaW Obando on Monday. Ortega announcod that Obendo's assistant win serve as mediator during the Cardinal's previously scheduled three-week trip lo Europe on Church business. /jMsBsaV
Rebel leaders endorsed the Sandinista offer of direct negotiations and called for simultaneous talks on democratic reforms, with tho participation ol the Internal opposition. They conditioned their endorsement, however, on Managua's release of five opposition loaders arrested yesterday, according to press reporting. On Monday, the regime hadjeieasec seven coposlUor^leaders detained lasl"
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' The Sandinistas probably calculate they can livestate of emergency, at least until the US Congressional voteto the insurgents scheduled tor next month. The deiontionsa warning to dissidents; they evidently reflectabout rebel efforts toront In urban areasalliance with the civilian opposition. Opposition groups mayto Increase their activities by the lining of the statebut they will be wary of Sandinista retaliation It thebreaks
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Views on Tactical Nuclear Arm*
Soviet Foreign Minister Shevardnadze has otlered to compromise with NATO on how to deal with tactical nuclear armsnonventional forces from tha AtlanUcjo the O
peech In Bonn on Monday. Shevardnadze proposed adealing with tactical nuclear weapons systems hi Europeseparate consideration of their nuclear componentsot their delivery means. He proposed thatdelivery means be Included In new talks onwhose mandate Is under discussion In Vienna, and thatcomponent be deferred lo future*l
negotiations."^
Meanwhile, Soviet General Stall Chief Akhromeyev noted at ain Moscow on Saturday lhat the lectlcaj nuclearbecome an obstacle In Wanna and promised "new proposals"the Issue when the mandate talks resume next week.conterence also highlighted the Soviet search for aand described the INF treaty as fulfilling one stage of theoutlined by Mikhail Gorbachev two years ago to eliminate all eapons by theJ
m^^HShevardnadze's romarks seem to bring the Soviets closer bthe US' view that armaments can te included In newonly to the extent they use conventional munitions. If Ihethrough in Vienna next week, they could remove an important loandate for new
Although bolh Shevardnadze and Akhromeyev advocatedof tactical nuclear arms, they didhavebroad context ol an eventual nuclear-free world.proposed eliminating either the tactical nuclearmissiles and launchers, and artillerybombs, missile warheads, andThe formula Shevardnadze suggested, however,the Soviets to call In the futurethird zero" on justmunitions.roposal would serve lowhile protecting Soviet Interests In maintainingmeans as conventional weapons systems^
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Planning lor Dabt Contingencies
it laying the groundworkoretorium on Ils external debt should effom'io obtain new money Irom International creditors lalt.k
| Argentina will probably trymake one moreddressegffc concerns. An agreement aalHPatfaV would belter enable Buenos Aires toridge loari'from Ihe US and other countries to meet more0 million In bond payments due on IS February. Even with an agreement, the next regular disbursement tomillion from the IMF0 million from commercialnot likely to be made L
before early March!
Over the longer term. It will be Increasingly difficult for Argentina to raise such largo Sums of new money. Buenos Aires will need continuing infusions of funds from bankers and other creditors
throughout this year toebt moratorium!
Polilical Concern*
Ruling-party pressure ontoctogenarlen President Houphouet-Bolgny touccessorpate ot coup rumors Indicate growing tearower struggle should he die In otflcei
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IMouphouet-Boiany's ago and lha country's deteriorating 'economy are leading to Increased concern in tho pnrtyossible lesdersnlp struggle. Houphouot-Bolgny probably will resist pressure to leaveil his health begins loleast until his pet pro)eci. the building ot the Yamoussoukro Basilica. Is completed late this year. Neither ol the two mosl likely successors, Nstlonal Assembly President Bedle nor EconomlcCouncll Presidoni Vpcr^^both pro-Wos tern
'neV P'Qhsbly will noi press Houphouet-Bolgny louccessor."*
Coup rumors are unusual In Ivory Coast and may have been partly fueled by the President's recent cancellation of two atate visits because of eye problems and latiguel
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USSR-CHINA: Soviet Opl.mi.rn About Relatione
Soviets are portraying General Secretary Gorbachev's interview
hinese weeklyositive signal, oesprte Beijing's eftorts to
play It down. Deputy Foreign Minister Rogacnev said last week that
Moscow considered Ihe interview toignarming trend in
rotations He added that It shows Beijing recognizes the-signmcance
ot the Soviet eftorts to reach pglltical settlements In Afghanistan end
Cambodia as well as Soviet troop withdrawals horn Mongolia last tear pBBBBBBBBBB
dlplomalspaaaaefBhsked probing
(about the ellect on Slno-US relations ofetween the US and China over Tibet and over arms sales to Iran
_|Gorbachev, In his Interview, clearly tried to capitalize on any nervousness In Boiling created by Ihe Soviet-US summit. Ha pushed Ihe Chinese lo bring their political dialogue to the summll level and hinted China may be losing ground In the strategic trlsngle. although he publicly assured Beijing that Moscow is sot trying to undercut China's position In that relationship. Although the dlplomst expressed doubtsino-Soviet summit would take place this year, the Soviets dearly ere pleased by the direction ot events and probably are convinced tha request lor the interview and Its publication In China are proof that progress on the obstacles Is having the desired affect In Beijing. Beijing Is trying to encourage Soviet pressure on Vietnam bui continues tp Insist thai the Cambodian Issue must be resolvedummhT
USSR-SPAIN: Shevordnadia Vialt
also gives Moscow another opportunitytself as taking the0 .estate its commitment to Internale visit comeselicate time for Prime Minister Gonieku- (ust after agreement on reduction of the US militarypain and rust before his Socialist party's
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USSR-ISRAEL: GoyibIb Approve Israali Visit
Soviet Foreign Ministry spokesman announced yesterday that an Israeli delegation wouldshort visit" to Moscow but that no date had been set. He said lhe visit would be to assess the work done by tha Duich Embassy, which handles Israeli interests In the USSR He denied that the visit was to reciprocate the visitoviet consular delegation, which has been in Israel sincend reiterated that diplomatic relations could resume only as part of an Arab-Israeli settlement. The announcementharp denunciation by the spokesman ol lsra> handling ol Palestinian
unrest In the occupied territories^
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The Israeli visit will be the first official one sinceelations7 and is another atep In the process of normalizing relations that lhe Soviets beganpproval of the visit reverses the Soviets' earlier unwillingness to receive an Israeli delegation and probably means Moscow hopes this win ease Israel's renewal ol visas lor the Soviet consular representation and further Improve the atmosphere In US-Sovtel relations during preparations lor the Moscow summit In tight of the current unrest In the Israeli-occupied territories, the Soviets wfll have dlftlcutly explaining the move to Iheir Arab friends and are probably trying loitrident condemnation of Israeli poll'
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SRI LANKA: Finance Minuter Quits
Mei ties been Instrumental In Implementing policiesurthered economic llberalliallon on the island. Although his departure probably will not change Sri Lanka's economic policy significantly, It may slow the government's ability to secure foreign assistance because De Met was particularly skilful at soliciting funds. De Melark horse presidential contender; he lacks.the party credentials and popular support of other UNP candidates, such as Prime Minister Premadasa Oe Mel's push for the presidency Is likely to create more splits wflhln the ruling parly and weaken Its chances of retaining power]""
Early Election Returns
[candidates assoclatod wllh resident Aquino's ruling coalition are doing well in local flections on Monday, especially In theubernatorial contests. Oppositionseveral who served in key posts under former Presidentheeded for wins, however, in some cases over Aquino's relatives. There are scattered reports of fraud. Including ballot box snatching and vote buying, bul no Indications of systematic cheating.elatively peaceful voting day kept the number ol election-related killings in recent weeks down to, Communist Insurgents did lake advantage of Manila's redeployment ol Iroops to election hoi spohjbvlncreaslng their ambushes and raios in several
national irend Is difficult to discern wtth less thanercent of Ihe returns available In many key races The likelihood that several Aquino-backed candidates win lose and that some Marcos cronies will be returned to oflice suggests, however, the admlnislrallon'a authority al the local level win be challenged. Meanwhile, ibe slowresult ol adminisiiatlvoill almoat certainly Increase charges of I
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In Brio!
Soulh African miliiary publication carrying first official public
acknowledgement ot chomlcal warfare
production figures, defensive capabilities -includes recent photo
of soldier In lull protective gear
Guinesn President Conte shulfled cabinet Monday amid rumors ot coup plotting, according toemoves rivals. Increase civilian influence inhould temporary atom further military plotting, increase Conte's control. fflMpt
lenlsi
Eastissidents connected with Church of Zkjn to Wetl Germanyhangeractice of Imprisonmentay calculate It serves Internal security and human rights Image abroad."
USSR. Nicaragua signed4 million economic
agreement Friday.jSjSjajpBJ|esBBjBjB^ ncludes
equipment, investrofectrbpapiy InSoviet aid tor oil. consumer ocodsa^Bjflfcj
Soviet Deputy Foreign Minister Kpmplektov arrived Inranking Soviel to vi^t_
ay be discussing stronger commercial tieseTeVM
od^iowever. posing threal of lurlhor acts ^
Argentine Government in control of all military loyal,troops have arrestedrominent leodor os of insubordination.
to ask bankers for bridge loan of0 million lo cover this month's intereslad agreed lojijgse.payments, now soys reserves Insufficient
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Special Analysia
Stalemate To Continue
The Salvadoran military retains (he strategic edge In Ilt elghl-year-old war agalntt Marxist guerrilla', bul no and lonsurgency Is anticipated In the near term. While continuing their current strategy ot lowrlsk attacks on economic and military targets, ihe rebels probably continue to plan spectacular combatnd perhaps attempt one as early as thla month, the anniversary ot theT "final offensive.'*
Guerrillas look advantage ol the Army's Involvement In earthquake relief efforts to Increase Iheir activity sharply In6 and early last year,evastating sssauH on an Army brigade headquarters at El Paralso last March. The rebels reverted to harassment smbusn actions, and atlacks on civil defense units and economic targets when Ihe government launched an aggressive nationwide offensive last summer. Their politicaleneral labor strike andfomentlng widespread urbanlo elude thr-
Initially slow to respond to tha rebel offensive, government forces In May launched an ambitious, nationwide campaign against guerrilla base areas.uerrillas were killedounded, and Insurgent operations were temporarily disruplod In some parts ol Iho country; governmeni casualties numbered more. The armed lorces' tactical momentum slowed by late last year as the logistic situation deteriorated and some urits bogged downnilateral cease-fire mandated by the regional peace
^Although the Army retains the strategic Initiative, it still has several
chronic deficiencies. Spotty leadership and mediocre tactical
performance coniinue to keep some units trom reaching -
The military plans at least lour major operations this year to maintain pressure on guerrilla baseH^|
||These campaigns will Inflict some tossescmttieTisunsents and disrupt their plans but are noi likely to alter the strategic balance dramatically*
Insurgents will continue to rely on sabotage, ambush, andhlgh-yleld ladles and will probably try spectacularvulnerable targets, perhaps keyed to the seventhmonth of the guorrillas' Ill-fated "final offensive" or toelections In March. Uke the Army's large-scaleactions will pay short-term dividends Out are not likely tocurrent lactical" 1
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Original document.
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