IRANIAN REACTION TO RECENT MILITARY SETBACKS

Created: 4/21/1988

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

Irinlin rVwrm,wMifU

continuing bMtll.oS.JSm

lining until US forces caught the Iran AJr red-

Sllkwora alistlesuwait. Or*S-owned ship: outeflagged tanker; one struck Kuwait's Sea Island renal nil;

-Increasing its attacks on ships In tht Saudi tndt after the Unlttd Stttas began prottcttng Kuwaiti shipping;

"Instfgetieg provocative demonstrations by Iranians In Hecct during the annual KaJJ, resulting In riots and the deaths ef at least too pf.grlaa;

an attack on Saudi offshore oil facilities in Octobtr. Tht Saudis apparently forestalled tht strikt by taking defensiveafter being alerted by US Inttllfgenct;

-Attacktag lore ships In tht Culf In December than In any other singleof tht wart

--Increasing tht ratio of Its ship attacks this year relative to Iraqi ship attacks. Tht attacks havt been running three to two In favor of Tehran (stt attached chart)i

r^taltsa; aort lethal ship attacks by occasionally attempting to kill crevecn or to Inflict sort than superficial daeagt;

--Engaging In mora violations of Culf stttts' ttrrltorlal wattrs In Us pursuit of ships to attack;

--Reportedly sending an agent to sabotage the Bahrain oil rtflntry;lining this iontfi.1

Viewed, froa this perspective, Inn's resumption of lining this aonth vasudden. Isolated Incidenthift in tactics and targetsel berate raising of tensions within the contentasically aggressive policy Tehran has fo lowed all along. He havt no specific Information oesSeaSS1! I" "fl. but Tthran apparently ptrctlved that it was losing tht Initiative te the Unlttd Stttts and Its Culf allies. Tht Iranians knew tht alalag wouldS reaction. Thty probably wtlghed tht riskSlitary strikt but concluded that tht risk was acctpttblt. believing that thewtrt aort likely tooaawrclalituation reducing the prospects of significant US retaliation. niece, tht lines ear* designed to show tht Culf states that their security had not beea enhanced Increased US naval presence or US earnings to Tehran about lining.

IpbMu Actions In ths Persian Culf Sines ths US CscortBegan

ul First Carnest Hill convoy began.

Jul -- SS Brldgeton hits sins MSt of Fsrsl Island.

Jul -- Additional mints discovered west of FirstI probably laid it th*

seee tins as ths Bin* that ths Brldgeto* bit.

ug - Riots is Mecca instlgitsd by Iris.

ug -- Ttnksr hits sin* off of Khawr Fakkin In thif Ceun.

--upply ship sinks after hitting alas off Khawr Fakkm.

ug -- Nines, probably old, found In shipping lanes off Kuwait and Abu Musa.

ep Inn fires ialislU that lands Is the water off Kuwait.

Iranllkwoni Missile that ovirflys in anchored nflagged

tanker mar the Sea Island Wnstnal and ispacts on the beach south of Nlm al Ahead!.

Irinllbasra alssll* that hits the wttir offSephe Inn AJr Is captured whlla laying alms.

inefield Is discoveredhipping line off Dubayy.

OS Oct -- Iranian naval forcts apparently itttapt to attack Saudi/Kuwaiti oilfield; thwarted by strong Saudi naval and air presence.

M Oct -- Three Iranian snail boats fir* en two US helicopters that retera fire and sink twe of the craft.

US-owned tanker hit by Sllkwona al still while anchored off Kuwait.

It Oct -- tanker hit by Sllkvora atsslle while anchored off Kuwait.

Mikwom alsslle hits the Sea Island teralnal off Kuwait.

ct -- Kuwaiti Shias. probably supported by Iran, bees the Pin An ticket office In Kuwait.

ov -- Inn Is suspectedooting near tht Kuwaiti Inttrlor Ministry.

ov -- Two Bites destroyed by Allltd alnesvttpers Irsouthern Persian tglf.

ov US naval forces dtstroy sevtral Bints wait of Farsl Island.

ec -- Iranilkworm alssllt at tht Kuwaiti Sea Island ttralnal; Ittfltctor barge.

ir Iranian Sasstn oil platfom flrts on two passing US htllcopttrs.

March Iranian sponsored sabotage caapalgn against Saudi fKllltlei abroad begins.

pr USS Roberts strlkts alnt In tht ctntral Persia* Gulf.

M Apr -- Iranian naval units respond against US naval forces afttr the US destruction of two Iranian oil platforms. Iranian forcesAE oilfield south of Abu Ruse Island.

pr -- Additional nines discovered by Allied forces ntir Farsl Island and la the southern Culf.

pr Iraa fired two possibleKuwait.

Ship Attacks in the Persian Gulf (Since Protection Program Announced)

Number of attacks

Original document.

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