STRIVING FOR A SUCCESSFUL SUMMIT

Created: 5/15/1989

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

Strivinguccessful Summit

Central Secretary Gorbachev's visit to Beijing begins today with both countries having differences on key issues, but Moscow and Beijing art nvrking to ensure that the summit tires up to its billingajor international erente- ttage iifJJ

A variciy of reports indicate thai ihe two sides are si ill tryingork out differences on communique language especially dealingambodian sclllcmenl and lhai Soviet Deputy Foreign Minister Rogachev may have arrived earlyronompromise.

Impressed concern recenlly that Chinese student demonstrations would distract attention from the summit and that Chinese officials may even partially blame Moscow for exacerbating the problem because sludenis view Gorbachevero of political reform. The Soviets arc skirting student requests to meei with Gorbachev and allowed the Chinese topeech by him tomver>il,Meanwhile, fjMoscow and Beijing will announce the opening of consulates in Khabarovsk and Shenyang during the summit. PJiaaaaaal

Comment: An important measure of ihe actual success of Gorbachev's meeiings will be the nature of Ihe joint communique. Moscow may hope lhat its rapid moves on border force reductions will ensure Beijing's agreementormal, signed communique of principles similar lo the China-US communiqueossibly including party ties. If an informal press communique is issued instead, it will indicate key unreconciled differences. Wrangling over communique language may continue until the summii ends on Thursday; in February disagreements over termsino-Soviet press communique on Cambodia delayed its release until after Foreign Minister Shevardnadzes departure from Beijing, "j

Moscow's decisionermanent Chinese presence inFar East Military Dislricia major sign of reduced tensions and may lead to progress on setlling the border demarcation dispute over the islands opposiie the city.-CM. DIA. NSA-

CHINA: Demonstrations SharpenTensions

The government's decision to move (he location offor General Secretary Gorbachev rather than removeof thousands of student demonstrators from Tiananmenrepresents, atgrncflijiry conn nsusilhin the (

week severaT^raToTrricTs^nrTrriine^

Zhao s^ conciliatory approach. HI;'

the^WyTiaersTia'

nr^iv VCr howhandlc thf

ryi wiheir advantage Meanwhile.

Deng Xiaoping has become trom the debate.

Comment: Although Zhao can claim some success for histhe protests this weekend attracted smaller crowds than on 4the refusal of more militant students to heed his appeals to halt the unresterious dilemma. Zhao mustay to accommodate some student demands without giving his opponents an opening to attack him. He. moreover, must stillay to tum his temporary gains Into concreteachieverm^ntyy^coniing Central Committee party

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