trconic Mass Mnvement
gr'n'iiti! participation otCanimiiniit /'any aiitPg/iccriir-icnt officials' in :te iiuJent protasii in lieijing luggem iiiai tome rtfainxinaybe manipulating the dfiioAttraiitmt to itetnglhen their nr.nd againstbat lhe options fee dealing with the prot-jtt ire htc-'ni-'ng
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iii'tiitiigiy
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A growing number ofillion-plus proiesicis in Tiananmen Square yesterday were workers, government employees, and members of lhe partyjind miliiaiy. Some ofthosc groups have tics to Zhao or Older rcfoi.ii leaders and openly displayed banners identifying iheir affiliation Some are demanding lhal Premier Li Peng and even Deng Xiaoping ncp down. Zhao has generally been spared criiicism. and some banners have called on demonstratorsupporl tim fj^aW
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China's normally strict internal party discipline apparently has failedrevent party organisations from throwing iheir support io ihcroup from the party's theoretical school has joined demonstrators, claiming lhat party officials across the nation support studenTdsmands. MBkaBBBBaBBBBBBaaaaaaaBBaB^at China's official Student union, which studenljcriiicized earlier as lacking irueand the Communist Youth League have urged lop leaders jo meet wiih student demonstrators and heeel iheir demands.
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The protests were initially critical or all of China's top leaders, now. although snll spontaneous for thc most rfiirt. they appear to be taking on an increasingly pro-Zhao tone at ihc expense of LI "eng. thc architect of China's currenl economic retrenchment. Any Such manipulation by Zhao will widen tlic leadership division and complicate cITonseal -ith ihc students agajjBjj>
Beijing's range ol'options is dwindling in any ease. The governmeni may continue making Some conciliatory gestures, playing for lime, hoping Ihe protests will lose Sir-am once General SecreiaryGorbachcv leaves China. But as more groups join the students, thc protcus may pick up moitienium. If hardliner* prevail, ihc use of force would risk turning Ihe public agamst (he entire pany leadership and even outing splits in ihc miliiary and police, some of whose members ai leastith thc students.*
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may rtfo:ove, hopinghe growing popular support to countci orthodox party opponents and regain the upper hand, bm niuchjsiill may depend on whciher Deng mncnonsove,
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1 5 6
VIsils Shaiiulttii
General Secretary Gortacner arrired In Shanghai ihit mar ninene-day rtllthina's main commercial port and tooodhinese special indatrrial tone before returning home to MoscowMMtj
Gorbachev has met win Shanghai pany chief Jiang Zemin and wtll tour ihc Minhang Development Zone, where he is ioi no-Japanese jOtnl venturecompletely" Chinese factory Bui ii Gorbachev himself noted at hi pre" conference ycs:erday. some events migM be canceled because of student demonsi rationshanghai.
GurSacnev refused to pass judgment on thc student demonstrations but eipressed the nope ihai Chinese youth and Chinese leaders would natONterenees On Cambod<a, ne said the Soviets jnd Chinese no- understood each other's position beitcr and would continue their dialogue Gorbachev also reiterated -points from his speech at the Great Hall of lhe People earlier in the day aboutomplete demilitarisation of the Smo-Soviei -border and increased economic cooperation with me Chinese
Although the demonstrations havedisruptcd many of the
social events on hu schedule. Guroac^cvgjgphjJlf} -as pleased with his reeepiion in Dcijing and that ihe summit accomplished his main goal* or normalizing state-*nd party relations. Differences over Cambodia apparenlly were not resolved, but progress may have been made on oihcr contentious isiues Thc decision to raise thc level of the Soviet and Chinese delegiiloni discussing ihe disputed territory along thc Smo-Sovict border, for csample. suggests thai issue isuccesitiil
The only major event that remains is the issuanceoint communique. Moscow may be still holding outormal, ligncd communique of principles governing the relationship, like the Chirte-US communiqueut reccM statements by Soviet and Chinese spohesmenjndicote that an informal press communHjije is more likely.
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I 6 0
Si'uMion Rrpnrl
in Addis Ababa
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supplies.
IVO'Mcngiiii: fcrces appearedhave gamed ihe upperin "hecapital by last night, but tne situation remains fluid. Fighting around the Defense Ministry, which was occupied by coup plotters, and at i'M Statei-g. where' President Mirtgistu's civilian supporters were located, has apparently subsided. Heavy artillery and troops remain at key locations.government forces arc conductingo use searches for suspected coup plotters and have carried Out summary executions. The former Army commander for Tigraycouri-tialactor in seitine off theexecutedearly evening curfew was imposed^ulthc regime has "the public by radio tohc populace
and other n
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The North and East
activity, meanwhile, has shifted outside Shewa. the Central province
EFLF hislan broadcast fromspokesman for thc rebelling militaryfor anegotiations. 3nd formationransitionalhead ofihc National
T^mrCouticiITMaj. Cen. Seyoum Makonncn. Ethiopia's new leader, he is widely respected as one of Ihe few office's to sland up to Mengistu and blame him for the Army's recent defeats in Tigray.EPLF forces marched un mpeded into Asmera yesterday.
outcome of the coup hinges increasingly on developments in the north and east. The exlcnt of support in the Second Revolutionary Army for Ih; coup plotters remains unclear.
however, it would increase the likelihoodace-off between renegade northern Army units and pro-Mcngistu forces io lhc south.
Cutili-ncfl
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Regime Options on Hold
Defense Chief Noriega ha, put options for an interim torrrnniem on Moid whiie ne gauges tne opposition's staying po^er, the depth of hemispheric condemnation, and Washington; next more^/fMMMj
The central Strike called by thc opposition yesterday wasRoughly SOe>Jj.n. Panama '
absenteeism waslow. cip^rWiiion supporters stayctLoifihc streets, and the police presence was heavier than
) "The OAS foreign minister! laic yesterday agreedroposal to condemn the regime's electoral abuses and iohree-member delegation to Panama butormal call for Noriega lo Step ..
Joriega apparently is refraininp.ecision on an interim governmental arrangement until thc dust settles ai (he OAS and foreign media attention dies down. He probably is confident that the OAS will notall for him to step down and thai its enthusiasm for addressing ihc Panama problem win wither, particularly following Ihc opposition's dismal Strike performance Nonclhcless. Noriega may be anticipating, harsher OS moves should ihc diplomatic cfToris "umbk.JaksaVHBHsWaMast
1 6 b
Insurgents Launch Offensive
inSurga/ut last workationwide military effort to disrupt Ihe economy, diicuragc foreign investment, and force the new ARkXVA government into
I he campaign includes sabotage and haiassir military posts, concentrating in rural areas
assassination attempt occurred Tuesday against thc National Assemblywas on an earlier guerrilla hit list
military has responded aggressively io thc rebel attacks, conducting frequent patrols in contestedontroversy over tlic selectionew defense minister, meanwhile, has led the high command to order levcraJ-urutS in the Capital on alert in response to threats that Air Force Commander Bustillo will use force ifnecessary to stop the nominaiion of CltieTof Staff Poncc.dJBMaj,
"aaVaTaaTaaw ecent scries of military setbacks, the insurgents are still Strung enough to attack lightly guarded rural targets; they probably are not able toortified miliiary installation. They will coniinue to Strike targets of opportunity in San Salvador and may attempt additional assassinations. The lapse ofthe unofficial border agreement may allow the rebels freer use of Honduran icrriloryanctuary and staging
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Although Bustillo appears convinced that he has been passed over for defenseinal decision on thc appoiniment probably has not been made. Bustillo is not likely to incite his subordinatesiolence, but Ihc imbroglio threatens toedge between theand ihc Air Force and disiract attention from iff?war effort.
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'ivi
16 6
atis fuel ion limns
general strike she Venezuelan Confederation of Workert, haldingtoaay highlights organised labor'sthetinomt<rhitsreitty policies of President Peer, and heraldsfissures in his Democratic Action (AO} parti.B
A special CTV congress lasi month Called the Slnkcay u> protestng of price controls and subsidies, which hatercent since February,
the widespread riots in March convincedICTv" leaders Ihey had lost touch with thc rank and file. and.esult, they arc rethinking their largely cooperative relationship wiih government and business, as well as iheir role in the AO-
Since ihc notS. wildcat workvc flared, particularly inVenezuela'shirres;ie cenicr of lis Oil mdusir
is cliyrlyh thc Civs militancy, lie publicly denounced lhc ideaeneral strike and vigorously defended his economic program at ihe CTV congress. Thai did noi. however, stop Perez from announcing on ihecvc or labor's tiadmonal May Oay demonstrations thai ihe lowest-pltid-publicould gel pay supplementselp cover increased food and nanspoitatitin costs was.
noniy igr rcrce? is determinedTV leaders job actions and
'Mollifying laborng so'wili be difficuii. howc< maintain lhe integrity of liis economic program, arc equally determinedorce changes through demonstrations. Perez will probably continue to make tactical concessions and may even allow another round of wage increaseslacaie union rank and file while expluilmg his problems at home resi ihc ir.icfiatior.al financial community foi help ^HHK.
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I* May Ivxi
3 16 7
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WFSI GLKr.IA.NY.
r/hu
Wet AgW
e'oooH, lake repriialt0 rntait toincieJ I'M'A hijacker
west German medical worktn were abducted in Lebanon tail week. The demand* madejy were taken reportedly included limning Hammadi's sentence to five years andizballah terronst imprisoned in Cyprus^
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_Donn Ute lasi week took several aenonieduce hi vulnerability in Lebanon, probably in anlicipaiion of ihv Hammadi verdict,epeated earlier waning*est German nationalseave and -nhdre- :is embassy itarT from Beirui afMMMta
Commmt- ILioallah is Ukelv to take actions agamsr West German personnel and interests. Inuhammad's brother directed ihe kidnapingsest German hostages and probably those of four Beirut University professors to prevent Muhammad's exiradmon to tne US. Hizballah icrrorim can also operate outsideflha no aircraft and offices and nonofficial West German Cultural fad.ties probably arc particularly^
Thc court's harsh comments on Hammadi andstifT sentence given him restrict Bonn's room .'or maneuver. If confrontedpectacular terrorist incident. Wen German Icuttcri probably would offer private assurances of an early release once Hammadi becomes legally eligible for parole. But they might not feel obliged to follow
to
63
through on any promise made under duress, and iheyvoid ^showing weakness to ihc voicrt and angering ihe US.
'63
BOLIVIA: Presidential Winner Noi Yet Dclrrmincd
The official count of void castaynly half finished, and (hemain parties arc challenging errors in ihe copying. Final results are IO be released onay. Wiih Only urban area totals validated so far. preelection favorite Hugo Banzerinuscule lead in thennal race over the ruling party's Sanchez dewho lias ms'Siedh, wit)va silent marein. Jaime Paz Zamora of the Movemeni of ihe Revolutionary Leftercentage poi'nis behind thc leaders. The panics are discussing various coalition possibiliiics as they maneuver for the early August vote by the Congress, which will decide the presidency since no candidateajority of the popular vote. VKssssssVHbsssVBsb* ajgs^BBSBBBSBBBBBssss* th- armed forces commander has moved to hall talk ofmilitary intcrveniion on behalf of Banzer. whoilitary
efJJBB D
POLAND: Catholic Church Legalized
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legislature yesterdayaw recognizing Ihe Catholic Chut '
ihc church legal status is an indicator of the
D (OJ regime's desperation for popular support, most immediately to
improve its prospects inonth's legislative election. Thehopes to entice ihe church. long supponive of Solidarity, intoneutral role. Warsaw, which recognized the politicalthe roundiable accord, has. in legalizing the church,iIs longstanding ideological claim to rule alone, ll hasthc church's status as Poland's leading moralice. i
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May
i
IRAN-SAUDI ARABIA; Tehran Likely To Barton Hajj Again
and Saudigree on conditions for Iranian participation in ihe Hajj. ihc annual pilgr.rtiagc lo Mecca, selling back efforts to improve relations.
refuses to admit more0 Iranian pilgrims ibis year; Iran isran rejects the Saudi requirement lhat pilgrims pledgengage in polilical demonstrations. Tehran is charging lhat Riyadh's restrictions arc "un-Islamic" and has rejected an invitationeeting of Islamic affairs ministers in Saudi Arabia.
an unlikely last-minute compromise. Tehran will boycott the July Hajj as it did last year. The Saudi position has strengthened ihe hand of hardline Iranian leaders who would like io re-verse effortsmprove bilateral tics. Tehran is now more likely to Sponsor terrorism in thc Persian Culf. gyffff)
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In Brief
Pancevsk, named Yugoslavarty President
grees wiih Serbian leadermc Albanians. although wary of Serb ad^
* uglit panyhi steer pany from rcfo.,,o.)
regimes release of jailed activist Vaclav Havel
kite'C Pan'1 CSCE late tinsrobably also response io SoWei pressure
USSR- _ _
may renew leadership debate on dissideni policy
i So-'et iroop withdrawal from Poland
to begin unidenl.ned motorized unit, lankegiment may be training unit or part ofbeing restructured.
(dispute between Ecuador. USbank defused . stcr claims bank lo rciurn SSI million recently
K5y
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TnpiR- :rei
Philippines: Flawed Slralcfiy
ssassination does noip thepel icy or.
n O'S interests nave Beenalid lacnc lo undermine the government in Manila since lone before President Aquinoe in IMS. The CPP leadership probably believes it can exploit current anti-US sentiment and reduee the risk that any further attack on Americans would build sympathy for the US.he party's logic in ordering the Row* assassination and antibavcs campaign has potentially serious flaws-
Recent nationwide polls suggest party leaders may have overestimated the depth of discontentwiih the Aquino administration and their ability to exploit it.aBBBBaaBBBBaaa* Aquino remainspcrceni of respondents stillrowing recognition that she has failed to address key problems like government corruption and inefficiency and widespread poverty. Similar polls show negligible support for the insurgents.
The insurgents probably have exaggerated the harm atlacks on US interests will do to US-Philippine_relalions, specifically to thc bases talks. Non-Communist nationalists still dominate opposition to bases, and Commun in-sponsored anti-US rallies are poorly attended.
leaders appear to assume that attacks om. the US -ill producearked reduction in US military aidignificant increase that could be used to undercut popular support for Aquino. In focusing on the US. however, Ihe party may overlook Philippine military initiatives, such as deep penetration agents, lhat have worked well; it also ii failing to widen Ihe limited appc.il of the party's propaganda.
Neither the ftowc attack nor Ihc aniibases campaign ensures tailing cooperation between ihe political and military wings. Unless parly leaders canrop in Aquino's popularityerious break in US*Philippine relations, divisions may intensify between the political cadre and the guerrillas, most of whom favor more widespread violence against US and Philippine targets.
17 6
Special Analysis
Campalsn
of US Army Col. Jamas Rorrt leu month is part ofecmpa'si- by tar Cotr-mirnis'Ar rWppi-.ai "aJmimiitrjiioM
party; opposition to tho US bans.
The government can do little to prevent violence by the party and almost certainly believes US personnel arc largely reipcmsibte for protecting themselves. Communist and nationalist groups probably will cite the AQuino government's condemnation of the assassination and augmentation of security at US facilities as proof that Manila is more responsive to US interests lhan to the needs of Filipinos.'
leaders probably did not anticipate the controversy Rowc's killing has created between Washington and Manila over the pace of Ihc investigation or Ihc Philippine Government's ambivalence toward the US. Thc insurgents probably arc pleased that thc Philippine Congreis decided to open hearings on thc US military's role in the countcrinsurgcncy and US servicemen's behavior toward Filipinoi. Prey 'c;iorts_finni Manila indicate that thaasariicipalion 0f
ftfeasgJI murder
WrtHViaTm^qurTo administration glvci USjurisdictione
at*
Original document.
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