UGOSLAV1A:
to Stability Grow ing
The Inability of Yugoslat leaden rnrowing nationalism, political diraiomi and 'cor.vrr.ilaeration it imertmring tht prospects for ttrioui instability and srl hacks to political liberalization-
in
Growing ethnic nationalism, both spontaneous and thatregional leaderships, poses the greatest danger. Serbianorchestrated the reduction of Kosovo'swhich prompted ethnic Albanian nationalist protestsProvince last March in which at leasteople wereleadersimilar outbreak and reportedlyharassment andf local Albanians.Serbs and
CroaTra^ncreaTea^onccrned in Bosnia about ethnic vjolrncc growing isolationist and sccccssionist tendencies in Slovcni
Widening political divisions between liberal Slovenia and authoritarian Serbia arc preventing national agreement on political reform. Slovenia tolerates independent political groups and held the country's first direct competitive election by secret ballotederal position last month; Milosevic hasro-Serbian campaign in the republic press and ran unopposed for president of Seibia. Military leaders and federal officials from several republics, including Serbia, reportedly have frequently discussed military intervention to replace Slovenia's liberal leadership. Jfl
Economic problems continue to exacerbate ethnic andThe new government of Premier Markovic so far hasa dent in the country'sercentpercent unemployment, or its declining livingfor^newJMF standby agreement are not goinggovernment has refusedand is pursuing an expansionary monetary policy,IMF regards as unacceptable.
Strife, although probably manageable, may grow in theas federal leaders continue to rely on stopgapwill probably take additional steps to expand hisand that of Serbia, and he may iry to overturn or co-optleaderships, such as Bosnia. More outbreaks ofare likely, particularly between Slovenes and Serbs,for the party congress scheduled for Decemberway. Invin^tandardsmay lead to
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