Measure* Still Possible
The political situation has eesee* somewhat since the recent setback to Serbian leader MJfosoWc, but renewed ethnic or tabor unrest In the next fewhl stiff force Belgrade to Impose limited emergency measures, and, although the potential tor ethnic trouble Is greatest In Kosovo and other southern regions, worker unrest might erupt anywhere In the country.
State President Olrdatevic. during the recent crisis ovor Serbian nationalism last month, threatened to use all legal means available to put down unrest. The Constitution gives national leaders broad powers but does not spell out specific measures. Ttie leadership mudo widespread use of police and mllltnry forces to auppress Croutlan and Albanian nationalists11 but were moro constrained in Montenegro last month. In any new crisis, government actions may include restrictions on public gatherings, curlews, and tailing of Instigators. Various sources indicate the military was on partial alert lasUnonth and was ready to bach up security forces If necessary^ ^
urther ethnic unrest is most likely to occu'egions TBTOreeuiruc Albanians are aProvince, western Macodcvn. find aojl'ici f'.ivbia. Trouti'oMst.irieJ by tru-Albanians or by Serbs and Macedonians. Authorities probably would act quickly with security forces and, II needed, troops. New matt demonstrations in Serbia and In Montenegro that turn violent would also be reason for emergency measures. Despite rebuffing Milosevic last month, however, national leaders probably would be reluctant to use force against peaceful Serb demonstrations bo cause they fear thai the heavily Serb officer corps and Sorb conscripts would not respond
Yugoslav leaders probably are counting on wage concessions and regional end ethnic rivalries to keep any new outbursts of the tabor unrest sporndic and Isolated. Authorities probably do not want to use toroo to Suppress strikes and protests lor fear of losing even more credibility with workers. But If wisest*'cat Labor or other ethnlr; violence erupts, the government would have Utile choce.J ^
Emergency measures would probably achieve stabilityhite but would also entail at least temporary curbs on freedoma ol speech and assembly and possibly more general setbacks to political liberalization Yugoslav leaders recognue that such measures would onlytopgap solution and that promoting long-term stabfUtyand reducing elfintc disputesuch Improvedl B
Original document.
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