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baHah Debating Flotations Wiih Syria Notea
Sadiq Faces More Trouble
EC: Strategy Inispute Developing
In Brief
Special Analyses
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Middle Eaat: Regional Economtes Face Trying Year
Hizballah Debating Relations Wllh Syria
over lite scope of relationsart intensifying among Msoailah's leadership and may nave resulted Inj/rmed clashes within tne fundamentalist Muslim grout
[Hlitsilih officials have begun to Increase their Contacts with pro-Syr'an Palestinians. According to Lebanese press reports. Hizballah officialsonference In Beirut last week sponsored by pro-Syrian Palestinian groups and supported Ihe meeting's condemnation of PLO Chairman Arafat's -eccnt policy Statements. Inelegation from the pro-Syrian Palestinian Abu Musa group visited lufayh's headquarters in the Bekaa over the weekend to discuss closer cooperation.ej^^jr-
Comment-. 'Hizballah's spiritual leader. Ayatollah Fadlallah. appears to bo leaning toward ine-camp that tavors accommodation wllh Syria. Me has visited Damascus several timesear and In talks with President Assad recegntied Syria's importance lo Httoalah Fadlallah la not likely to cut fus ties to Iran, however, ana wW continue to press Tehran for financial assistance. Mis views will strongly affect the debate within Hizballah, and he probably will try toonsensus rather than allow the radical Shia group to fragment.
Damascus win
centime to cuiiivate Hires ah. as assbo searches tor leverage on Lebanese fiolitcal developments. Hizballah Is likely to be receptive, regardless of Internal friction, because Sytin controls its supply line Irom Tehran. In addition, HUbalioh will probably increase .contacts with pro-Syrian Palestinian groupsedge eaemst luture clashes with tbe more moderate Shia Amal mintto
SUDAN: Sifliq F
Democratic Unionist Parly, the second-largest partner in Sudan's ruling coatilion. yesterday said it was leaving the government, aecordmg to Western press reports. The Unionists also called tor the repeal of recent price end tax Increases, for the formationaretaker government, and for new elections. Thousands ol Sudanese continue to demonstrate In Khartoum and regional capitals, many calling on Prime Minister Sediq al-Mahdl to resign. Sudan's largest trade union federation Is callingeneral strike untilMinister revokes the price hikes. Airport workers have closed Khartoum's International airport In support ol tne strike
! II Unionists leave tho coalition, it will further weaken Sadlq
and may undermine military support for him. Lest week Sadiq'e government disappointed the mattery and general public byeace agreement the Unionists negotiated with southern rebels last month. The departure ot the Unionist* would make It very difficult for Sadlq to get the peace processbackor^ourse and resolve the current economic crisis.
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Strategy in Arab-ltraoll Diepule Developing
officials expect toIBBeTPLO ChWrhon Aretet aoon in Madridand Spain is trying to arrange meetings with Israel. Egypt,Israeli Prima Minister Shamir has peenjtwitcfl toMinister'*" ' " " "
ranee and Italy almost certainly will Join Spain, effectively replacing tne Formal troika ol the laat. current, and next EC presidents lat the EC established last week to explore Middle East diplomacy.
i. France, and Italy wGI European credibility with Israel and to reassure the US and other ECthe, UK. Was! Germany, and the Netherlandstheir constructive purpose. Rather than invito Arafat to Madrid, Spanish officials will probablyeeting In Tunis In orderappear evenhended to Washington and Tel Aviv. oi-pursuing then own strategy of persuading Shamir to participatelddte East, peace conference under UN ausplces.^lJpBiv.
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CAMBODIA: Jakarta Talk On Jeopardy
announced yesterday It wants toecondIn Jakartaettlement In Cambodia in Februarywhether or not the Khmer resistance factionsofficials say the tltieo-rcslstancc-factlons nppcof "psojyed not
aiinougb they may erfBorge. another round Of "worklnp-leveTlo^.
progresso-Soviet talks, and the possibility of Increasing pressure on Hanoi among their reasons tor wanting tne meeting postponed. eassssaaV
ks^HL^HHi"Vietnam's announcement forces the Association ot Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to try to bring the guerrillas to the bargaining table or to cancel the meeting. Thailand and Singapore probably prefer to shelve the talks because they do not trusl Indonesian Foreign Minister Alatas and consider ntm overly deferential to Hanoi. Bangkok also wouldetback (or Alatas, who Is hosting lhe talks, es It tries to regain the lead In ASEAN diplomacy on Cambodia Another session at tho working level wouldeep tha Jakana IMUaUvg alive and reduce the tlsh ot further discord In ASEANBPoaaass*
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In Brief
USSR beganjrial of four dissidents In Georgia yeslerdoy.harged with organizing am
lOnsirailona in earlyrying to restrain ne Georgian National Democratic Parly, nationalist unrest
let Qlasnost editor Grigor'yanls oul of rerevan tan aftern hunger strike while former associate Tlmofeyev allowed to visitelease, gitlorc.nl treatment show sensitivity on Caucasus activism. aiPP
Yugoalavla yesterday announced new regular Army command* wMl not follow regionalikely preludeubordinating republic militias toome republics will see threat to their autonomy. tssssP*"J
South Korean strikers soaked selves with'gasoline, suffered burn* Tuearjayjn clash with nonunion employees atnion says firm trying to breaknclflentwul Incrcasn antl US sentlmenidJBpN|>
South Korea yesterday countered latest North Korean call for dialogue with proposal for telka between Primerobably response to recent North Korean propagandaeoul may unveil own unification Initiative next month.i
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Special Analysis
Economies Face Trying Year
stjst^oMrovori
tort world all prices will force austerity on many Middle East countriesncreasing antlreglme criticism and the potential lor political unrest. Lew oil earnings will constrain growth tor aome countries; othets will be etleeted by reduced aid and earnings Irom espatrlata workers employed In oil states on Ihe Persian Quit. Most governments, teerlul ol antegonlslhg
rgruntlad urban populations, will reforms that might speed economic growth.
Oil prices ere likely to stabilize al around Sl5 per barrellthough resulting lower revenues will be manageable lor sor _Culf y
oil pioducers. there may be increased grumblings; sJesaaaaV*vor management of (heir economies. Shortfalls inbange in Iraq and Iran will Impede postwar recovery etlorts:
Oil producers wllh targe populations -
vlll suffer
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from stagnant or declining oil prises. The outlook lor Algeria, hfl hard by drought as well as the weak on market. Is particutarly bleak when viewed against the backdrop ol widespread civil unrest in October.
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Problems Threaten Financial Stability
en! seheaules and buiia
Stagnant loreign currency earnings, poor economic management, and increasing demand lor food and consumer goods win contribute to persistent balance-of-payments deficits tor many countries in the region Although most will try_to_ reschedule their debt, problem
'to tesfTne resolve of
Western creditors as they stretch arrearages
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ableut and aid fiowsj
difteiencerisis and through win depend on the vagaries ol harvests
Prospects (or Reform Mined
Progress in implementing reforms lhal could lap private-sector capital, both foreign and domeaiie. will be alow injpuch oftpe reaicn. Wnii U'ee*cep:on o* rclcm-nirndedBaB>.
ccncmic moon remains urmry enuencned. Many governmenis remain fearful thai reforms such aaubsidies and restructuring of inefficient public-sector industries will provoke already disgruntled urban populations to revolt. Continued opposition lo relorm from government bureaucracies and state-conlrolled monopolies that benefit irom preferential arrangements alco will slow progress, even ^jhent^overnment leaders are actively promoting liberalization.
m the absence of meaningfulreat deaf of private-sector economic activity Is likely to remain hidden from government reach. Although such activity will generate significant levels of employment and Income In many countries,oes not roach all income groups and classes and will not insulate regimes from political unreal
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