NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FOR SATURDAY, 24 DECEMBER 1988

Created: 12/24/1988

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Visit Appears Successful

Indian Prime Minister Gandhi's visit to Chine eppears to have producecTrnovement toward resolution ot the longstanding ^orcfcj^ispute ant' laid the groundwork lor Improved relations.

oin) communique released yesterday, tne two sides announced establishmentorking group on the boundary question and tic formation of joint committees on economic relations and trade and science and technology. The text also took note of India's recognition of Chinese sovereignty over Tibet ond stressed that improved relations need not wartorder settlement. Chinese Premier Li Peng accepted Gg-niiii's invitation to visit New Delhi, although no date has been

NsssstaVJHBThe formationorder working group and upbeat press covC'agc of the visit indicate both 'sides arc pleased with the discussions. Afitiough there Is no information on the specifics ol the border talks, thc working group will add impetus to bilateral negotiations, which have not progressed significantly during eight rounds of working-level talks

The apparent agreement to resolve the boundary dispute ineetings will help Gandhi silence domestic critics who will claim that his visit resulted only in symbolic agreements ana that he failed to make progress on the key Issue. Bclfing Is almost certainly pleased by New Delhi's public acknowledgment ol China's sovereignty over Tibet, particularly after International press coverage of Chinese policeCjT^belan demonstrators earlier this month.>

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PHILIPPINES: Left and Right Plan Holiday Violence

Civilian and military supporters ol former President Marc planning an anilQovernmenLaction in Ihe next few days,

Meanwhile, Communis) Insurgents and Ihe Philippine Governrrfent have each announced moratoriums on offensive operations lor tomorrow. The Philippine miliiary nonetheless believes the Insurgents will launch attacks Monday,h anniversary of the founding ol the Communist Party ol the Philippines.

loyalists lack sufliciem backing In tl* miliiaryo successful coup now and mayhow ol strengthsupport from disgruntled officers lor future moves.reelingeries of setbacks, may try aor attack lo regain credibility. The Philippinesteal their ihundcr by arresting party leaders, as It did onanniversary lasl

LEBANON; PLO and Amal Mililia Reach Truce

Tne Shia Amal mililia is mending relations with prn-Arafal PLO lorces in southern Lebanon while it prepares lor a'new round ol battles willi Hi/bftah tn West Beirut and lhe capitals southern suburbs.

W laaTFaaast Amal probably recognizes it cannot count on active Syrian support against Hizballah. The moderate Shia militia no doubt hopes that repairing relations with Fatah will at least neutralise the Piilesimians. who have backed Hizballah in past inter-Shia scraps. The accord also lacilitates Amal members' movemenls between Beirut and the south through Fateh's Sldon stronghold. Pro-Aralat PLO lorces appear to be tilling toward Amal In aaUclaajion of rocky relations with Hiiballah and Syria following lasl months Palestine Nat!onal.pg.ur>cll meeting end thc PLO dialogue with Washington.

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tamdonl Represent alive I'nuluiiO hos already Icll expectedeiurn Tho UM office hos inlormcid "

the (foeiSiOiY Claiming nonetheless thai CUi ienl UN proktciS.ma refugee IM programs, writ proceed during

drawdown, whichlake at least two months ssJVrbB 3

Tne Keen*nd ihc Sovieuc to use inc UN rwewtnev.rewin* year with the introduction ot new aids evidence of international suppori Tho drawdownBimosi certainly piompied by enpecistions lhei collapse alier lhe Soviet withdrawal as well as by concoma ihai Social penal bombing might prompt new rocket attacks on Kabul by ihe resistance The UN sta"1 tuiiher hurt moraie in tne capital, particularly if (here ispruces and oihe pe'sonner cutbacks or CmbassyclOSu-efsSMjMaassstaasasVM

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EAST GERMANY: Rclorm Measures Adopted

treasures to liberalize adminrsl.alive law andvel

T.^ cenctn about

nd*,sai borne anda* passed this monthe restraints on ihe pol.ee and lor tne titnes: ctiiwn. the right lo appea! admm.sVat.vehe ho*"len.CSrehateas as travel, emigration

tSlrlZ,a P'O^'y rirjhts. Rulestravel to tbe West ana emigration were eased ea.lfironth.

he legal reforms are intended to address Oomeiiif

B've the re^ HIO

lle-s. an! O'i'lcal cases. The auTTOrliies probably hope lhal boll. Moscow and the West win sea such

<?* lhalnot rcjeci relorm. butchange to meel Easi German needs

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In Oriel

Sempaao virtually assured o' Portuguese Sociakst Parry leaoVsfi p urprise winnerForeign Minister Gama" ok of Oeiegaieseat month's parlyHI try lo unite Socialists to challenge governmeni mo'e

Icelandic center-right Citizens Psny may join cenier-lefi coalitionarty recently backed governmentddlllon Of Ciiuens Parly would Icnglhon government's tenure, forestall lolllst challenges on US. NA IOaa*

*>ug traffickers threaten mo to kidnep or assassinate US personnel In Boliviarobably in retaliation for support in counternarcotics operations . ay indicate Such operations taking to" on trafficking. <saf*BaBfa..3

Surinamese military released Dutch Charge last night, saying (ureal earlldr In day wasay rolled anger over perceived Interference of embassies In Surinameseeveral protested arrest of human righto aclivist last week J

In Pravda Interview yesterday, scmor military officer in Azerbaijan sard situation quiet there alson would be premaiure to talk aboutealthdrawingoviet so'dersonfiscate illegal irrearms. mam tain strict curfew *j

Soviet Ambassador to Kabul Vo-ontsov meeting former Afghan King Zahir In Rome this weekend . Still trying to push resistance Alliance Into serious negotiations on interimo talk* with Iranian-based Afghan rebels ycnsHBassS ^

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tghanlstan reports thrne explosions near. source of explosionsay have been rockets. Soviet ordnance disposal minee tirst rocket attach ir. Kabul tfvs monl" aaat^aaaWj

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this month to raise mftitarypay byer con l orale recruitment problems, military's Impatience with relorm^irirroases overall de'ense spendingserenn: *sssbbbb**>

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Special Analysis

in Tiooble

President Babmngldtt ambitious program loigeria to Civilian rule2 has wonrudging acceptance from lite Nigerian public. Religious, ethnic, and economic tensions ere likely to Intensity, undermining Babanglda't otlorts to establish tteble civilian p

Refcg ous friction is increasing,re politically important nonh. Fueled By lhe growth ol both Muslim and Christian fundamentalism. by Ihe waning poweradii ton ul leaders, and by government mishandling ol contentious religious Isauos. rioting over religious issues has broken oui several times since BaOangida sailed powerS Ihe military regime's manipulation ot the appointment ol the new muter heed of the Islamic community last month sparked violent demonstrations thai required troops to reestablish order. Such Incidents have further polarized the population, and opponents of.the transition program probably will continue to exploit thorn

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Religious disputes are also >mpcding completionewe regime lasl month suspended debate in the

Constituent Assembly oyer ihftlftciualon ol jaJafBJq law in the

insisting onore limited 'sin previous constitution, but this moderate lack ts unUkery to placate either the Muslims, who want to expend tne application o< bUamK law. or the Christians, who want tofjafV*

Economic Crisis Continues

Babengida has been unable toopular support lor his economic reforms, and Nigerians have begun biam-ng his two-year-old austerity program ratner than the years of economic mismanagement by hi* praducessors for rampant unemployment and perslslent inflation. Despite major restructuringerios of austerity measures-including massive currency devaluationsI ho economy has shown bllie tangible improvement Oil provides aboutercent of Nigeria's export earnings, and lower world oil prices have stymied attew*pts>to Improve economic performance. Babnnglda plana to adapt still tiahtar fiscal policies,pcndHures. and raiseates,

corruption will continue to undermine

reforms and tno'ngr>ess to accept further hardsntpa

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The economic picture Is also ciouderj Oy Nigeria's hugeillion. Nigeria recently reached an agreement with lhe IMF that will allow rescheduling of Its medium- and long-termng the UK has promised SlOO million in assistance In addition to approaching other donors In return for Nigerian acceptance of the IMF program. Foreign loansivisive Issue in Nigeria, however, and Babangidaertainly will not nsh_ intense domestic opposition by drawing on IMF assistanceJ

Prospects Dimming

Intensifying economic pressures aro likely to Increase dissatisfaction with Babsngida's economic reforms and further erode popular Support lor the military regime His contentious program lor reestablishing civilian rule provides for orvy two polilical parties and probably will further In name religious, ethnic, and regional tensions. The military. Ihe key lo maintaining power, remains loyal to Babangida al least for now because the regime has carefully shielded it Irom the biunt ol the oustorilyj^ Irj y

As economic conditions deteriorate and civilian rule approaches, however, the military may be more reluctant to give up lucrative economic opportunities and political pergutSjtes by returning to the barracks. The return of partisan poMical actfvtty ea*ty nest year and subsequent transition steps may spark increasing violence Unrest over austerity measures or over controversial features ol lheas acertainly wouldharp military response andevenoup by d'salfecled Army

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Original document.

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