'arning Page
CoMents
USSR: Central CommitiM Advances Parly
Central America: Eflorla To Revive Peace
Vugoalovia: Adopting Constitutional
Thailand-China: Military Roiatiom Expanding
Notes
South Korea: Opposition Maintains
Lebanon: Shia Infighting
Iran: C'erics
OPEC: New Production Agreemen!
Paro: economy MMsrrsV Resigns at Weakening or
Afghanistan: Seesawo for Towr
Afghanistan: Possible Mombera of Interim
EC-US: Growing Dispute Over US Meal
Cosla Rica-Nicaragua: Agreement fo Pairol
In Hi.-'
Analyses
International: Increaso In Palestinian
Peru: Antidrug Progress Will Be Difficult To
t^mmm^
ro>ctana
b(3)
b5
Committee Advance* Party Ratcm
The Soviet parly Central Committee yesterday -polled out the role ol the alx party commission* created In September and namo-t memberships
ThoA(*rorrimiS6lons. each withoembers drown from the Central Commit lee or Ihe Central Auditing Commission, will meet al least once every Quarter and will be responsible lor drafting policy papers for the Pobtburo tsssssaasi
p3
b3
As scheduled, this plenary meeting ol tha Central Committee also approved revised legislative drafts to be submitted to today's Supreme Soviet session. It heard reports from General Secretary Gorbachev on pofctKal restructuring and horn Premier Ryxhkov outlining on economic plan lor the pertodheeats ol the Gorbachev and Ryihkov speeches were not immediately available but me to On published, possibly today. fM/JfJ/t
The participants did not directly address Ihe problem of interethnlc relations but noied that preparations should be Intensifieduture Control Committee meeting on thai Issue. The Central Committee did expel throe ol itshad boon Indicted lormode no Politburo-level personnelays^M
IThe six commissions in effect supersede thehad been managed by "Second Secretary" Lkgachev. andGorbachev shift authority from the Central Committeeelected party officials. Tne commissions genarasy involvefobs functional^ relevantomrrMsaion's task and appear3
ix of reformist and conservative vews. SsssBsV
Gorbachev neverthclcss has prominent supporters on eachmay be able to manipulate the new strucium mare
lhan ho has hsyidled Ibe Secretariat 1
A Mr. RICA:
To Revive Peace Accord
Cost* Ilea's proposalN-supervlted verification team mar bo endorsee! by trie region's foreign ministers when they meet tomorrow in Metlco Clt)
and Nicaragua view thoican proposal positively; il calls 'or aol Canada, West Germany, Spain.
and one Latin
country -
verily tlie movements ol
an and N
Inaur
along Honduras'* borders
1 * ij_ 1- 4 . t
oonainisias navesu
ptan will nelp Honduras rid itsair
the Nicaraguan
pressure on Managua lo
with Prcsit
plan.n also requires
to drop
World Cowr
case against Honduras and lo
tii will be s*
lowevcr. *in accept ine concessions on Ihe suit.
and Guatemalahis week and lhat the accord acratary General
the UN
if asked, according lo lha Embassy
would have lo consider the plan II all live Central American countriesormal request.
TThe Cosla Rlcans view the meeting tomorrow as an opportunity to movo the Anas plan forward. Tegucigalpa apparently wants'lo prevent Ihe Nicaraguan rebels tromolilical issue in Honduras'* presidential campaign, which begins on Sunday and9 Managua probably views the iiiitlalfveay to improve ils tarnished niernabonalandevice loIhe rebels further. The Sandinistas may insist that Ihe Central American democracies pros* Washington toTTokf :aks with Managua as part of tneir prrie Uw accepting tne Costa Rican plan BBSaaaaat
Adoption ol Ihe plan would put ine onus on the verification commission to plan the detail* of US activities. Implementation ollan, however, probably would requrre approval by Ihe Central American presidents, and they are noi likely to meet this year .aaaaameg
tt lovur-O" IMS
Yugoslavia
Threats To Reform Effort*
Af factors might slow political or economic reform in the coming months. The greatest danger would come from new challenges to the poiliicai order by Sertxan leader Milosevic, major labor and oonsumei unrest due IO oust artyise in ethnic Albanian unrest In Kosovo Province,ew ftareup o' tension between the Slovenes and. Such unrest could portend:
Return ro Greater Repression Maior ethnic or labor unrest might strengthenand ol ccnservative nationalnd those in the mostly southern region wrvo are more concerned witn order and stabikty than with reform. These leaders probably would try lo reverse progress on political and economic liberatirat-on. at least until they were more conlident ofilly to keep order.
SarDtanerbia's Milosevic may Still try to manipulate popular dissatisfaction and renew Serb demonstration* to tiy to unseal federal leaders and to Increase his own and Serbian Influenceove might stimulate nationalist tendencies among other elhnic groups, particularly Albanians. Slovenes. Bosnian Muslims, and Croats. Milosevic probnbly would respond to such resistance by Increasing police measures and. despite his roform rhetoric, returning to greater central conhot of thc economy.
fragirtonte-ion. Although unlikely, growing ethnic disputes sucn as those fueled by Milosevic might begin to undermine seriously the unity Ol Ihe national leadership and the Army. Bitter conflicts might then ensue between the liberally oriented northern republics of Slovenia and Croatia and Ihe federal government, leading to much greater isolation of these regions and. eventually,plit In the country along north-south
TVDSS
b(3)
Adopting Constitution til Amendments
The constitutional amendments Belgrade intends to enact today probably will advance economic and polilical reforms, but new threats to stability might slow or reverse the liberalisation process.
amendments, although extensive, will boong process ol review and approval by Iheregions. They dismantle pan or tho Titosystem andreateror marhot forces.remove constitutional obstacles to liberalised laws ondomestic Investment, market-oriented allocation ofthe creation ol bond and securities markets, priceprivate business. The reforms provide lor the right loiter prisesncrease eH clancy,gftml
Interference in the financial community by Increasing the regulatoryf thc national bank flB
On the political side, tho amendments encourage elements of Western-style democracy while leavingominal one-party alms. They stipulate multlcandldatc elections by aocret ballol for many pailyand governmeni posts, although lhe parly will still control nominations. They strengthen the authority of the Federal Assembly over the collective federul presidency. Semiofficial organizations like trade unions and the Socialist Alliance, an umbrella social organization, would become more autonomous and wou'd have the right to contest government and party poi-cies trnXK-fPrn
wis pass neededconst Hut lonal char entkery new constl begin within Ihe n, is likely lo change government bodie:
steps toward democratization and Implementation ol lM<-supporied economic measures are intendedromote longer term stability by stimulating sustained economic growth ana by strengthening the responsiveness ol governmeni Institutions. Tha political reforms probably will be more vigorously implemenlod than the economic oijjs. Even with such relorms, Yugoslavia will face decades of serious ethnic, economic, and politicalJ
heoaoy snt the most importantebate on an rven moro liberal probably will atlonal party congress0 JOB lurlher party oversight ol
t
ea
b(3)
itary Relations Expanding
Chav"'"ther ma/or arm, tool
^olllLJl lo he encoureuing
orce end Navy to buy more Chinese equlpment.onoe^0
eS",cmenl ,orhinese main battlewalso bought
T?tBa'e' alrcralt and submarines would mark
with Thailand, which has
reMed almost exclusively on ihe US to. combat aircraft.ong proponenl of closer military lies to China-appears to be pushingurchase because of low coal and thefl- aespitc the past reservations of Thai pilots 3Dou! 'heuality. Faced with reduced US miliiary
will concur with Chavalit'
rec ornm end a' i
esire iots sources of militaryprobaWy cast ihe initial deliveryeserve stockpilepans toariay concerns from its allies in Ihe Association of -Asian Nations as well as conservatrv^Thalgrowing miliiary refaiions wiih
1)3
)
b(3)
)
b3
SOUTH KOREA: Opposition Maintains Pressure
lenders nave rejected President Roh's call lor South Koreans to forgive former President Chun for his confessed misdeeds, insisting Chun testify next montharliamentary panel conducting hearings on tha Kwangju incident and on Chun-era corruption. Potla taken this wee* abdicateajority ol Sou* Koreans support further invest Igat Ion ol Chun's actions but not hre prosecution BBBaBBBBBS^HPJjBBBaBaaalijBBsl Rohreorganizearly as this weekend, replacing all ministers flrsl appointed by Chun and removing Chun loyalists from the party leadership'.
I Tho opposition ts unsaaly to drop its Investigation Oly the hearings. Oppowon issue alive will undermine Ron's eflorl lo pul the mailer behind him by yearend. Roh may again appeal directly lo the poop.e. warning that prolonged hearings and radical violence might endanger his domocretr-at.cn nlforta. He may also try to provo hla commltmenl lo reform by selecting some cabinet mlnlslers from the opooslHon or possiblyivilian as defense minister.
1 MS
Shia milllia appea recent intern* Lohtino in
LEBANON: Shia Infighting Stalamoted
havo gains
eaci Deir con
advantage In tho led In more than Mi. as ot Sunday gnout West eponediy a'*
|The lackcar-cul victor orefloud separation ol forces manes moro fighting lately. Hb-baHah has been unoxpeciodiy strong outside Its bastion In Ihe southern suburbs and Is not likely to give up newly won territory easily. Damascus is probably embarrassed by the outbreak of fighting in areas ostensibly under its control and win continue to press both sides toward the negotiating fable. Tho Syrian troop convoys could benforcements or merelyew weeks hi aov-nce of the normal rotation
b3
erka Executed
Irartan Government yesterday reported theof sr. Oerics and three ol their lay associates on corruption charges, intelligence Minister Mohammadl-Reyahahri said ihey had been iimnied some limn ago bui were only recently tried.
(The acts for which Ihe Clerics wore executed probatory occurred months ago. but their executions now appear lo be Clearly inlendcd ioessage to those who opposo the dominant coalition that Assembly Speakor .Ufaatnlanl leads. Radical Iranians, including Interior Minister Mohtasheml-Pur and some Revolutionary Guard commanders, have grown more aggressive recently In their aitomprs lo urKjermlrveore pregmnilc foreignhree Clerics may not have been as ciose lobut the similarity of thoilt WW most Iranians lolink the two cases, reinforcing iho pubHc Impression that Moniaierl Iselfecifve leader who cannot control his own entourage 1
b(1)
t>7
b(3)
b3
b(3)
w Production Agreement Signed
OPEC member* yesterdayew six-monih agreement on dude oil productionSaudi Arabia withdrew its last-mtnula proposal lo have members activelyer-barrel floor price. Accoiding to the official communique. OPECew production collingS million barrels por day for tha flrsl halfbove Ihe existing unofficial celling. The cartel alsoonitoring committee lo supervise adherence lo the new quotas Tha Oil market was not Impressed by thn accord: spot prices for most crudes have remained unchangedfter
rising throughouthe OPEC meet>ngi
r*>3 major cverp'oducers. Saudi Arabia. Ku-i; and Ihe
UAE. muEl cul outputotaln January totheir new quotas Saudi Arabia's Inability to getper-barrel floor price suggests that other OPEC countriesdetailed accountability and that Riyadh may quicklyquota If sustained overproduction by other membersThe UAE oil minister's conlention after the meetingUAE's new quota was not offfctar may also portendUr-css Person Gull countries cur;all output, oa
prices w- tai sharply by
PERU: Economy Minister Resigns at Weakening ol Program
Economy and finance Minister Salinas resigned over theeconomic program he had
announced several day* earner was weakened at Presidentnsistence. Last week Deputy Minute- Abugattas quit after Oarcla's decision to dilute the new economic package by pub*cty rafeeUng automatic exchange rate anddjustments. Salinas hat been replaced by CsiaO* Hivas from the party's left wing. Rivai
It by noting that and the World Uanh
the eeenomic program Minister Vitlanueva ia iied with thn hnip of the
Both Salinas and Abugaitas had the respect of ihe international financial comrnunity. and their departures probably wul jeopardise proa pec it fo> an agreement with the IMF and lhe Wo. id Bank. The chancas of implementing needed domestic economic reforms are Bkely to diminish with Rivat as Garcia's key economic adviser. Garcia may aeue on Viitanueva's statement linking the IMP to ihonew package to blame the dnvnioped countries for Peru's deteriorating economy.j
i SOS
p3-
AFGHANISTAN: Soeaa* Battle for Towr Khem
insurgent for cos Usi weak ihetime tm
r Kabul win prooabfy send additional ground forces backed By Sovtei airpo-er lo recapture Towr Kham because ol Its importance In slowing the Insurgent advance on the strategic city ol Jalalabad. Towr Kham may eachongo handa several times before the Insurgents have enough strength to hold It permanently. Insurgent success at Towr Kham and other outposts defending the highway and Jalalabad will depend primarily on regime defections rather than outright military victories. Insurgent lenloncy towardnu .rhor Prnvl-ge/
63
AFGHANISTAN: Poasibl* Members of Interim Government
ssssssBS^*v^ mis
candldatns ihot may be used inew Afghan government. One list olames was drawn up by Alghan Prime Minister Sharq, and irm other ofames had been complied earlier by former UN envoy Oiogo Ujjrdovoa Members selected from thathey are acceptable to abbe asked tomall roup of wlsenw. which wouldrecu'seMo'a national council
the res Is!se theseutually ai current prop
are rainy moderate, mostly nenl: many openly side with groups might be wining to th the regime to develop iwork of Ihe reslstoi
rci
b(i) 63
ovember
EC-US: Crowing Diapule Over US Meal Exports
The EC mem be' nates claim ihey do not want titer Community's plan to ban US hoimcne-treated meatanuary to leadrade war. but they nonetheless are preparing for such an eventuality After the US refected an EC proposalmpt US pet lood exports and ma/ease the Quota forgr>-qua illy beet. EC loreign ministers CnStsPed lo protest in ihe GATT rorum about potential US retaliation.ey also directed trie p'eparationisl Ol possible counter retaliatory measures Cornprotem-ftch
corn by(xi target ol s
nont
ha
here Is only brrvted
with the US. but ihey probably will find it dll compromise Quickly, making unlikely maior periphery olecemberlnlstehe EC 'or such options as delaying tne ban. o'leri compensation, or agreeing to binding arbitration by GATT
RICA-NICARAGUA: Agreement To Palrol Border
San Jose and Managua last week agreed to cooperate in repatriating Nicaraguam who do not meet International enter wj lor refugee status and to establish Joint border pafo't to stop smugghng and drug tralficklng. Under the agreement. MO Ntearaguana will be returned home today with the help ol the UN. and luture transfers will be arranged by the two government
radlobr< San Jos
illingness io deal with Managua rolled* its growing tear ol bemg Overwneiineo by Nicaraguan relugees: CIS refugee camps are already full and its aid resources strained to the limit. San Jose probably believes that making the UNhird party In Ih* arrangement to return relugees will soften any international criticism For Managua, tho agreementrecedent for cooperaiion In borderdetails remain to be workedthat tho Sandinistas could use in luture talks with Honduras.
9 n
SoAt defense atta
discussed return ol Sovte publicized meeting. talks on coeso-Ilre, political
luggosts lalks limitedomenloon
Afghan resistance today reports Insurgent leader Rabbani will meet with Soviet Ambassador Vorontsov ln Saudi Arabiaalks kKery to beoviets wani agrrxrnent io facilitate ea'e withdrawal ot their troops^
Nicaragua laal week devalued currencyercent, sharply raised luelfficial dollar rate.ordobas In February when monetary reforms bogan.lack-market rata.n February, surging ahead,aaj^?,
^BsiiMLIiiMaBBMnBBBBaViBas>Cuban President Castro lo attend Inauguration of Carlos Salinast Ecuadorian President Borfa's inauguration lastatest allort to expand Latin contacts, reduce regional Isolation.yZ,
-mandated cutbacks ln__
miliiary spending likely lo undermine support "for Prosldenl Babanglda among key backnn aBBBBaa ^
Philippine Senate last week voted to hnut paymenttillion
forekjn debt toercent ol merchandise. would cut payments In half.ouse version probably would allow
Novamoer 1
4
Special Analysin
Increase in Palestinian Terrortsm
terrorism Is likely to Increaseaiulf ot thm US denial ol PLO Chmtrman Aratata reaummlise lo oddrett rft* UN and recent dec/sfons br thm Pelestlne Notional Council. ArelaaJMrnsell will probably not encourage attacks outside Israml and tha occupied territories but will try to be seenorce ol moderation In the hope ofositive reception tram the new US administration.
A
6*;
tfl-i
before ino decision on Arafat's visa, Palest inianjaeliona oulsn lhe PLO umbrellaf
The vie* denial probably will only add Impetus to thesebe used as jusancaiion trx antl-US or anil-Western attacksprocd met US ana Israeli recalcitrance dooms anyto failure.
Terror! likely to Int threatened announced President; mat group carried Out
Pafesllolan factions based In Damascus publicly condemned (ne PNC's actions. Syria may encourage selective terroristpossibly Including some outside the Middlethe hope ol disruption PLO Init
faction against another ere icllons haveroup, forimuaxio that of Egyptian'" from We PNC may also cause rivalhad not
ssassination mil-Palestinian attack since late IMS
strong base of support among Arab states and in the occupied territories will help him contain hardline drssent wrihm the PLO during lha next severaluccessful lerrorlsi operation In Western Europe, however, would almost certainly erode international Support and encourngo'PLO hardlinera to break ranks. Unless Arafat can show hardlinera the PLO has aignlficantly Improved Its diplomatic position, beyond uie Arab world, ha Is likely to face an especially.niund of internal PLO bickering. tssBBSBasBBBBSBSBBBBsBssnas*
13
Special Analysis
rn Difficult Io Sustain
Garcia povernmonfs propres* on narcoi.es eracffCaffon and Interdiction etlortt ia being hamperedby increasing violence agalniLPeruvlan antlnareotlg worker, end by growing economic end pontic el constraints tssssaaV .
he
lhemonlh-oiiJeradication campaign in the upper Huallagawot Ids largest cocaproduciogncmnntonv aaBBBBaSkaHaBBiBBBBBBBBaaBBBBBX workers ulintiew culling technique li.wn ii.-vjiI/ oradwatad moreectares o( coca this year, as comparedectareshe new technique, however, wit coca plants to return to full yield Ino'lS montr't
Success o( the campaign has provoked growing violence against animarcoltcs forces in tne valley During recent months. US-supportea aniinarcot.es ekamenrs nave encountered unprecedented opposition Irom mobs rano.ng0ersons, some arman with guniano machete
and Polilical Constraints
Peru's rapKJiy deterioratingannual rate of inflation may soontesr the government's wi'tinq-ess to ali oca te <
sen Oil production drops, or II the Air lerrying oil to the Vaney.ht be more frequent groundings of Peru's overused helicopters, further limiting interdiction and eradication
n teawtarem taaa
Political considerations also may be weakening Lima's resolve on the etadlcallon issue
9
b3
Washington >m< de^cloo1
Uma'o rei
and Cong be cui ba>
-ongbme point man loi antidrugr control ot narcotica matters to Interior Mir
respond rapidly to ids in tbe Valleyeruvian cabinet on campaigns may not augmented by
teriorcently banded over Iter Sorts.
corruption continues to spiead and. it left unchecked, may signllicantly blunt tne effect of more substantial amounts of assistance to antlnarcottcs
Outlook
ingrt *
maintrong public Ihe US on the narcotics Issues would
POPurisI power
increased US development assistance may temporarilyhe position Of antidrug proponent* and in tbe Short run undercut criticism of eradication and Interdiction efforts. For the remalnlronths of Garcia'* term, however, counternarcottcs almost certainty wiaackseat to what are perceived In Lima as more/ pressing economic and political issues. Mailing Peru's economic slide Is likely to be the government's major preoccupation, and Garcia will locus on trying to reestablish cool
&3
Tor-fSecretisee
Original document.
Comment about this article, ask questions, or add new information about this topic: