National Intelligence Daily Monday
8
Warning Page
Changes to Oralt Constitutional Amendments
The Supreme Soviet legislative? proposal commission me; Saturday under thn chairmanship ol Parly Secretary Raumovskry wiih Vice Presidenttlendance to consider suggestions to amend the dratl constitutional proposals While apparently criticizing some efforts by opponents c' the dratt to reject the package end reiterating lhal the Estonian decision on sovereignty conlradicts provisions ol lhe Soviel Constitution, Razumovskly indicatedumber ol changes to nearly hall ihe proposed articles were approved. In total,mendments were being recommended to the Supreme Soviet Presidium. These included several that:
Address criticism concerning re.'alions between Moscow and tho republics.
Give republics representation on lhe new commission to oversee tne constitution In order to protect lhe*rights
Make several adjustments to Ihe proposed electoral laws to democratize lurthe' the procedures, particularlyrovision Ihat restricted nominationandidate
National Teniiona Increase
Moscow haseasured response to Estonian demands tor sovereignty, but national tensions may derail an eg.eeabla scluttor^aagLmw
Saturday. TaSS died President Gorbachev's acceptance ol Ihe legitimacy of many Estonian grievances and his call for lhe central governmeni and Estonia to workomt
may satisfy republic cniiclsm *
lurdays meeting ol the USSR Supremo Soviet commission dealing with the draft constituhonal amendments, some changes wore made
however, remains high In the
Hu'inlmi deputies to Thursday's Esionian Supreme Soviet session were coerced Into supportinghito Estonian President Ruutel arinounced Ma republic would stand by Its declaration. Th* litrvjaruan popular front protested its republic'* laliure to toNow the Estonian example andanpago to lore* another Supreme Soviet meeting. In the wake of targe nationalist demonstrations In Riga, lhe Latvian Supreme Soviet la sure la hear criticism ot Moscow's proposed constitutional amendments
Meanwfiae. the Sovot Supreme Court's death skenlersce lor an Aien COnvsctadurde'irg Armenan* at Sumgait is Bound to elevate teesuons In Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, where ylotenl clashes and strikes resumod late last week. The Armenian Supreme Sovietwhich now incluuns Iwo "Karabnkh" committee members who defeated party candidates in recantunder pressure to reroct Moscow's drill corvstituttonel amendment* and get the KarMakhissuecs" the agenda ol neat week's USSR Supreme Soviet session
conciliatory remarks and his trip to mdla
suagesl he does nothowdown is imminent. The USSH SuD'eme Soviet's rovision ol proposed draft laws indicates thai .'.tv is willing to compromise Some Estonians have ImpHad Iheir declaration otvere>gnty"argaining chip, which might
eiplain Moscow'a measured reaction With no Other republic lo'Kiwng Estonia's declaration of Ua law's supravnacyovcr deciees
trorn Moscow, lhe Issue will bo easier to rqsolvo aaasasaat^
Heightened tensions may sun lead to an impasse White disss? action in the Baltic and the resumption of ursrest In Armenia give Gc*oachev reasons to consider minor concessions, ri wai ta* imposS'tHeo aatisly aroused* potentiallowup remainsIn thenextaiSlOrlertain lo lie extremely conienliout
Pinochet Trying To Build Support In Army
President Pinochet's ettoit to regain support In theamaged when ho lost tho plebiscite, almost certainly will not teHore -tfr unrestricted auihniit, h? once had. (SjV>
1
to:
ti
ounter the dissension In tne Army, PlnocheTnasepemcdly with large groupi ol Army officers and caiied lor unily. Early this month, he replacedhird ot the more lhanenerals and the Army represent ail ve on the Junta Virtually all military officers in the government in petitions down through subcabmet posts also have been removed
,
stejs toward rJepoliticliing the Army. The promotion o* General Zincke lo Army Vice Commander has been weft received by the officerelped block Pinochet's effort to abort the plebiscite,MBM|BssVsBrflsssss*The supports the President *rtd would be uniAciy to defy him on military matters |
I widespread opposition in the armed forcesinochet candidacy in the presidential election In Decembora possibility advanced by soma regime hardliners ail hough Dronihiierf
1 Pinochet probably believes the command overhaul wli solidify the ranks*enInd him, but It has elevated younger leaders who have fewer direct ties to him and are unlikely to be as devotedommander the votes have rejected. Anyexlraconsiiiutionai move by Pinochet, including Irying lo run tor president, risks antagonizing the Army, which is increasingly signaling Us preferenceirectly elected government. II will help Pinochel, however, if the opposilion Iragmenis or demands unrealistic constitutional changes, such as eliminating the military's oversighl roleivilian government.
Whether Pinochet dominates the new High Command depends on how slrongly ne remains opposed io the growing consensus for dialogue with the opposition on an orderly transition to civilian rule The Interior Minister and the Navy Commander have recently Indicated they arc willing lo listen lo proposed constitutional changes even though Pinochel continues io insist Ihat tha constitution noi be chanced and the transition not come
in
b3
AMERICA:
To Revive Peace Plan
The Centra./American foroign ministers made progress lest week at lite OAS General Assembly towjjd_advancingmonffi-oid Arias tfbaco plan, but ma/or obstacles remain.
even-month hiatus, trie foreign ministers agreed to meet on
exico City io set We agendaummit lateor early in January.-J
complexity ol ihc issues involved will require at teas! Iwo meetings by theinisUathering ol Central American presidents can be sei.
Among the items io be discussed in Mexico Cityosta Ricac proposalN-supervised commission to verify and control movement of Salvadoran and Nicaraguan insurgents along the borders with Honours
b3
h3
tne OAS gal her ing. the Honduran Foreign Minister publicly retreated irom Ms proposalN-supervised peacekeeping force and reassured Ms Cenlral American counterparts lhat Honduras is committed to Ihe Arias plan.
'Previous eilons to get the Central American loreign ministers togetrev formally have foundered on Tegucigalpa's demand lhat Managua witncraw the World Court case against il. The Court now is expecled to accept jurisdiction in the dispute next month, and Honduras is trying harderjo entist'oiher countrieSTO*>reM Nicaragua to drop ihe litigation
The Costa Rican proposal breaks no new ground, it was lirsi presented last Marcheeting ol tne Central American foreign ministers. II adopted, it wouldalor obstacle for the reinliltration into Nicaragua Ol anii-Sandinista rebels now in HondL
43
Further Troop Withdrawal From Mongolia
The Soviets an raising Ihe potslbllli, ol further reducing iheir lorces if.Uoneolie, presumably to help set the Siege tor -Foreignelkt In Moat dm earl' nest month aataanata*
03
fa 3
b 3
The Soviet* maytho move ta necessary to maintain progressmoSovmt summit neat year In view ol the Slow pace on settling the Cambodian problem, which Beijing aMI portrays as tne main obstacle. Moscow may also believe furreduong its lorces in Mongolia win encourage lhe Chinese to accept President _ Gorbachev's proposal lor talks on mutual force reductions.
The USSR nimosl cortemly would demand something trom Beijing In returnompleto Hoop withdrawal fiom Mongolia,onaggression pad with U'osnbaalar as well as military reducllons on the Chinese side. 3ovlct civilian advisers are ubiquitous in Mongolia, and the Soviets probably do not regard thejrjroops as an essential means ol Keeping Mongolia In tneir camp.
putxaton ot tha Mongolian Fce-gn Minister's remanis seems designed to raapond fo Beijing's concern in the 'ope ol defusing the Issue before Oien'soscow. Furtner troop cuts in MonooM would be fresh avidenca ofa wihlngness toecurity conown* and
0 4 9 8
bl b3
Talks May F
CYPRUS: I
Cyprlol Pre lo meetomorrehv f
dialogue go
inwasn hai neither reacted to Vassmoo's activihes nor budged Iromino^ sfaBJBjaBBBjpan^
UN oRkcuiit do noilan covering the scope and liming ol suonani.ve discossHjns. tie UN andes are livelygreeitui-on tnat would make it drtficuri restart the tains
t>5
b3
PAKISTAN: Election of Provincial Aaaembliea
Nearly complete results from the election ol Pakistan's provincial assemblies on Saturday indicate some slowing of thc momentum Benaii'ied hy the victoryr Pakistan People's Parly In the National Assembly election last Wconesday. Bhutto<BBBBBBBBBsaaa>be wiling to retain Acting President Giuiam isnaci Knar" as prenvdent rl he names her prime minster. Her partyajority in Sind Province's assembly, but the Pakistan Muslim League-lead alliance won narrow pkce'ites in Punjab and North-West Frontier Provirw party won conti
t consu tat'OiS with
sneilitary In sii determine t> Inuild goverr the North-iA
still hope loinister. Although Bhutto
Top Seer
,- BarJ
Khan as biased against her. inuation In oil ice ll iheying in Islamabad should he Muslim League succeeds larty members neededi assemblies ol Punjab ai'ii
USSR: Gorbachev Warna on Afghanistan in India
Soviet Preadcnl Gorbachev charged, whileeace prize In New Deft. Saturday, lhal Paklslan and lhe US are apparently trying to lorce the USSR to rescind lhe Geneva accords on Alghanlstan. He warned of "grave" conseouenccs and tied ihe solution of Third World underdovelopmt.nl to the peacelul resolution of conflicts rlkc Afghanistan. Ihe Soviet-Indian summit statemenl signed yesterdayall lor strict implementation of the Geneva accords, deplored violations by "certainnd appealed to tho UN to establish an intra-Alghan dialogueroad-based government and lo deal with ensuring Afghanistan's sovereignty and nonaligned character, possibly by sponsoring an international conference4ss%sssB
Gorbachev's warnings repeat themes other Sovietsposhed, and his commonls associatingconfrontational policies appear toid lor Thirdof Soviet demands. Moscow is trying, by putting iheOroelabie in doubt, lo Induce Pakistan and the US toAfghan resistance to accommodate Soviet concerns. Olhercontinue lo stress that the USSR will meeteadline*
NICARAGUA: Prisoner Release
the retort* o'l the 3fl dlttrdentl Imprisonediolent antigovernmom protest in Nnndaime last July appear* aimed al Improving ;no Sandinistas' Imago abroad 'alher manore conciliatory posture toward trie domestic opposition. sssssl 'SsSBssssMpssssMssu! Nicaraguan court releasedrisoners urKoryTuonalty. lit other nine were freedhencluding ire mostsublect lo conviction on subversion charges: two.vcn provisional releases last week lor heaiih r- ifjfffjt
y releasing some of the Nanoaimehe SandinrSUs probably hope to mute foreign criticism ol their human rights record. Managua presumably also wants to attract more aid. particularly from Weal European donors, to repair tne devastation caused by Hurricane Joan lost month The continued detention of the leading protest figures suggests thai the regime still Isojeparpo to punrsn all but the most innocuous OisMdent activity ftfl ssV
bl
b3
FRANCE-NATO! Conventional Armi Control
Paris'* reopening of tho Intrs-Alliance understanding about tha relationship between CSCE and the coming Conventional Stability talks has delayed Allied agreementandate lor CST and may make II impossible to end the CSCE Conference this year. French officials have said lhat President Mitterrand was alarmed by Chancellor Kohl's recent references to CSTloc-to-bloc negotiation. Mitterrand reportedly is committed to having conventional arms talks among theSCE states and hasnstructed negotiators to propose changes to the mandate text and administrative procedures that would clearly make CST part ol the CSCE process. MM*'
s relurn to its longstanding insistence on closeCST and CSCE threatens toainlully reachedthat links the two onty loosely. Under Ihecould proceed lo discuss lorce reduclions with thcwithout inlerfcrence from Iho European Neutral andtnal participate in the CSCE process, and without theprocess. Mitterrand probably did not locus on lheand the administrative arrangements unill recently, andmay see his instructions as giving them ain bargaining on substantive conventional arms conirolthe Alliance. They may also hope Ihose Allies lhat areend the Vienna CSCE meetinti mis year will try to bring*
in Brief
Afghan transport tho! cown el Pa'ecNrw alrl-eid In Pakletan mayeen piloted by Algran defectors,akistani official called downing an neodent. ailboard killed
Ethnic Albanian demonsirslions in Vugoalavla'a Kosovo Province continued bul wore smaller yesterdayore likely II ouater of Kosovo Albanian officials noiisk ol conlronialloe wltn security lorces will grow If violence develops.aBBaaaaaa,
Hardline. anti-US leftist Bruno Trentin will be elected head ol Italy's largest Irado unionommunis) Party chief Occfieito endorsed ousting ol Trenlin's moderate preoecesaor attemptppease far loft before coming oa'ty congress.
ipypt recognizesim-ar announce/Pent
0 SCuSS tut
Algeria's National Assembly has approved President Bendiedid'a political and economic. First dehata. vote on governmeni program under new constitutional powersendjedid responding to popular demands in wake of not*.1
mien China made
led to vn.it Co.ro soon to
President Cnunput off public apology untilide claims more time needed to prepare statementelay may indicate lexl lell short of expectations Ol South Korea* ruling camp and Chun under pressure lo be more r> j
ca* .
bl; b5 il
ba
5 0 8
Special Analysis Military Balance In Flu*
Ai Lebarftn's presidential crir.il Increasinglyartition of lite country, the Christian side's military position Is limiting Syrian options. Syria's Lebanese c1 -lac* tbe strength to crush the Christians, and any serious etlortt to do so would onlf put Ihe Chrlatlan community more tlrmly behind hardline IoLanesc forces mllltlt leader Semir Jale. Syrian President Atsed may conclude. It US-becked mediation attempts tail,olitical settlement it impossible, but the prospect ot hating hit forces drawn Into tha fighting will probably deter him from strong military action.
mmar.ji'uoiceiay, Ihc more difficult andilitary solution becomes, particularly because wimer weather will make movln^armorod vehicles more difficult In Lebanon's rugged tcrrair ostjf*
Dsmaacusghilsme Shia rind thehoe theen though Amal is heavily engaged with Hizballah andnd the Druze seem rcluctanlampaignIhe Lebanese Forces, bofh an- willing le*harS!is lhe enclave wiih intermittent artillery fire.
Christian Forces
A3
Lebanese Forces militia and the Christian remnants of Ihe LeDanese Army under General Awn nre; rallies on an Ir
0 5 10
b3
risuans still tiivn
mi led slocks ol ammunition tnat would be used up In an Intense artillery duel wiih either ihe Syrians or Iheir proxies. The Iraqi supply line not only strengthens the Christians- tactical position bul also reduces their isolation and bolsters their conlrdence lhat they can stand up to ihc Syrians.issaaatVfc
Syria has responded lo Iraq's support lor the Chrlsllarts only by complaining about It pubilcly and In diplomatic channels and has made no move lo interdict or nail lorcibly any arms shipment. Assad may believe mat. if he took military action against the Christians, Iraq would threaten Syria militarily from tne easi *aiBBanj*>
The Christians' miliiary strength could be undercut, however, by internal nits. Recent Irlciion betweennd Awn over revenues from gasoline sales Indicates their deeper rivalry over leadership ol the Christian community. Awn. in particular, is likely to raise tensions In Ihe near future over Ihe Maronilc Patriarch's ellorts lo break tho presidential elecilon Impasse.
Outlook
Despite Syrian restraint, the current calm could rupture quite easily, isolated luehghis between the Oruze and lhc Army in Ihe Shut. Iraqi involvement wiih Ihe Lebanese Forces,core ol other evenis could spark an escalation that would bring the Syrians to thc aid olVaaataaasV
nilateral Syrian groundhe Christian enclave is unlikely, the Syrians will Increasingly try to destabilize Ihe Christian community irome decision last week byponsorcd Muslim Prime Minister Sallm al-Huss to replace Army Commander Awn with reiired Sunni Brigadier General Khaiib shows Syria's continued opposillon to partition and suggests lhat further political moves against the Christians are in the works. Damascus hopes such measures will erode and eventually destroy the tactical alliance uniting lhe Christians
h3
5 1 I
i
3
Special Analysis
Unsettled
Six months after an ettreordinary party conference replaced most of the Politburo, Garters! Secretary Grosz has neither consoltdeted his personal power nor developedcoherent program that goes much beyond proposals mode under former party leader Kndor.
Grosz has had difficulty defining an agenda for Ihe regime andenior party colleagues lo workable compromises on Key issues. Tha three mosi recent CenCal Committee meetings have been slen* debates on the naturo of tne problems facing Hungary with heavy emphasis on oast mistakes and calls for radical reforms, but little acreemenl or. neat steps The party has been unable to agree on thc critejj oswe Of how tothe proliferation ot independent perineal groups and union* ef/tMst,
Grosrs weak performance on this fesu* haao attacks .rom conservatives in themat group of Central Commitiee iwmwi. ledongtime Grosz rival. Politburo member Jsnos Bereci. arguedecent Central Committee meeting that Chaos la growing in the couniry and Impliedhould be lemovnrj
ill'
I USI
The inconclusive Centi party's loss of control embofdenrid by the rei. .
demanding fundamental changes and have taken The inltUjtTve on political reform Their main laclic "as been to organize political groups and unions thai they hope will at least serve as pressure groups to Influence regime pcVldes and. Over tne long run. may torm the oases for new politicalThe longer -to parTy wartsmoreUleasserting its aufhoniy
Economic potcy atao appear* to be norm. The only oectsion ihe Cenlrat Committee made at its latest season was to move ahead win the more accelerated o> two reform options orc>naOyuly, lis provisions to Ml import, wags, and pnee controls, as we" as to reduce subsides, howsver. have been watered down out of concorn for soc/al tensions and the country's financial situation, it now resembles tho slower option.
Grosz will remain vulnerable to challenges unless he begins 10
exercise more leadership and putsn Influential
positions ai ihe Cenlial Conimltlee mooting lomorrow. The regime Is
uni.hely, however, io gel moio daclslvo on pressing political anrj
economic Questions any limn toon. Originally united by opposition to
Kadar. the Grosz regime shows no more ability than its predecessor
to tackle Hungary's debiktot.-w. economic problems and its desire lor greater political pluralism "
0 5 I 2
Original document.
Comment about this article, ask questions, or add new information about this topic: