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The Arab Cooperationfaakj9 sisnmary
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The recent formation of the Arab Cooperation Council (ACC) byJordan, and North Yemen builds upon political and military relationforged during the Imn-Irjq war in an effort toew powerthe Middle East.
-C brings together Iraq and Egypt, the two largest Arab military and industrial powers,Jordan-three of the region's most important poUhcal actors.
succeed, however, ihe ACC win have to move from platitudes to concrete proposals and programs thai solidify regionalumber of cross-currents will challenge ACC cohesion:
The
companbUfty of Egyptian and Iraqi views on major Middle East issues such as the Arab-Israeli peace process has yet to be tested.
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-ThenetdforACCmtmbmlQbalart&thtirr^ countries, especially Saudirobably constrain ACC coop-cation.
trade ties and the disparate economic systems of the four countries will make economic integration difficult, (towing foreign and domestic debt problems will arobabfy force Egypt, lata, and Jordan to focus on domestic problems, leavinglittlc scope for joint cooperative
Political and Military Underpinnings
Although the four founders of the Arab Cooperation Council (ACC) herald theprimarily as an economic institution, we believe tbe Council's roots tie more in the political and military spheres. In particular, tbe military and political support that Egypt, North Yemen, and Jordan gave Iraq during the Iran-Iraq warhared outlook on the threat from Iranian-backed Islamic fundamentaliim andractical focus foraction.
I sold Iraq overbillion dollars worth of military equipment during the war,
provided thousands of "volunteers" for tbe Iraqi army, andoust venture toallistic missile with Iraq and Argentina.
-North Yemenrigade of troops to fight against Iran
-Much of the military equipment that Iraq received during the war transiied Jordan.
/ "Egypt ^nd Jordan contributed military advisors lo the Iraqi war effort and cooperated I with Iraq and Saudi Arabiaegional air defense network. JHaafe
Military cooperation among tbe four states has continued since last summer'sIraq basignificant amount of captured military equipment to Jordan and smaller amounts to North Yemen and bas Increased somewhat its military advisory presence in Sanaa.
This wartime effort has paid several dividends aside from fending off the Iranian threat. Cairo's support for Iraqajor role in assisting rZgypt's return to tbe Arab fold,the reestabUshment of diplomatic relations between Cairo and all but three ArabAlgiers, and BelruL Damascus became more isolated in the region, and the Syrian threat to Jordan was reduced. From Sanaa's perspective, cooperation withtrategic counterweight to Saudi Arabiaargaining chip in dealing with Riyadh.
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Hidden Agenda
While Jordan, Egypt, and North Yemen have emphasized the economic aspect of the newly formalizedbe political motivations and rnilitary potential of the alliance are not far below tbe surface;
-Iraq has openly suggested that poh'tical cooperation win follow economic action. Chief among Baghdad's political goals are establishing Iraq's regional leadership role at both Syrian and Saudi expense and furthering rnilitary tofhjslrial cooperation with Egypt.
-For Egypt, charter membership in tbe ACC emphasizes Cairo's return to the Arab 1 mair-stream and formalonsensus vindicating Egypt's moderate course and peace / with Israel
-Jordan's King Hussein benefits by demonstrating his effectiveness at promoting Arab unity and cultivating powerful friends.
-North Yemen's President Salih increases his political clout by firKung an alternative to bis twice-rejected attempts to join the GCC
-Egvpt, Jordan, and Iraq nowormal counterweight to assuage their frustration with the Arab League's failure to readmit Egypt and its tradition of rule by consensus, which allows Syria veto power over League lniiiatfves on such issues as Lebanon and tbe peace process. BLKmW
The ACCs potentialegional military grouping has already been raised by Iraqi and Egyptian leaders. Saddam Husayn, in bis address to the first ACC summit meeting in Baghdadebruary, noted that countries with Wong military forces must be prepared to use these forces to defend other Arab states.olitical advisor to Egyptian President Mubarak, developed this theme more extensivelyostsurnrnii interview when he claimed that one of the basic principles of the ACC states will be lo cooperate nuliurfly to confront external threats or aggression. He also postulated iha: ACC military forceseserve" for the GCC stales or any Arab state threatened bv BEErcssionlaaaaaaaaaaaaal
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Tha Unje to Uerp: The GiaJ Coopenekwt Cuwictf htatfmtb Arab tJmion
Since NW ceaaon ofdf Coopennion Council (CCQ fa JSV1,Xn^4giM; sW IMtedAmb EminjXej, and Omanumfrg of Heps top*naon- 7ha GCC kasumewori for imntaied commercial des.IO Unk Omsportadon and corrunu*kaDOni metwcrta, and unpicrnented policies to dlminateto tS4 pnte movement of capuoj and labor mn( member neaes The CCC aeusha-nt altoon-Wtfmn
by iJh! I'ox cr buq mrx rtmnr fmmrn corunbvan, BjCO tokohwa ltd lia*jMB.fJH
earf mtauntamm announced iSa formationreater Utrgkrtb Arab Unkmwo-day mooting In Nankeen, Uonxeo. Uotfvre leaden motion an or&nuanon potiernedafertAe EC model
ForeignUiniOen,bnflftLipults. Theagvemaniabolnchulesmutualdefense provisions thatommon nsponse lo at^r^ afcwrf anyew mibiery .pentnon wiA
The economic aims of the union-reduced trade baniert. enhanced competitiveness on the world marked and cooperative agriculaouL Induseiai and tommerdalprojecti-mli probably predominate in the near-term. Profound political differences on mattan suot as Our Western Sahara quetuom and the pountudfy duruptiw presenoo of Ubya. however, could tatify pnrmnt ktlfOment of eve* sv Union', economicBffBJ
The Economic Dimension
Tbe ACC seeks to integrate tbe economies of tbe four countries by coordinating coo do ouoies and increasing intra-ACC trade,jourisrr, investment, and technical interchange.
Early proposals include:
-Stimilating trade by building upon previous bilateral arrangements and removing bureaucratic barriers tocommon market" among members.
-Coordinating imports to enhance bargaining poweris suppliers.
-Encouraging joint ventures and easing labor migration restrictions to improve tbe flow of capital and labor between member countries.
-Merging tbe four national airlines to facilitate tourism and ease transportation bottle necks.
a regional fund to promote and finance development projects. |
ACC countries currently have few economic links apart from the substantial number ofesser degree Jordanian aod Yemeni-workers in Iraq. The labor-exporting countries are almost certainly counting on economic cooperation in theto increase (heir access to Iraq's lucrativer re construction rnarkct.
Labor aside, only Jordan currently bas substantial trade relations with the other ACC members-accounting forercent of exports andercent of importsgypt and
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Iraq, tbe Council'i major players and the two lary.est Arab military and industrial powers highly regulated and protected economies and insigruficani noomiliiary bilateral trade. I
On tbe poctive side, tbe ACC will probatory Improve tbe bargalnirig rx>sit>on of ksin international economic organizations such as the GATT andis other eco- poupings like tbe European Community-the ACC countries' major tradingeconomic assessments indicate tbat ACC countries could shave up3 billioncosts by pooling commodityj[ nay also
ease tbe migration of workers to reconstruction projects m.
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ACC Member Country Trade Partners
Tottl Tr+otillion
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Tough SUxiding Ahead
Tbe ACC draws together four countries tbat have in established political and military track record of bilaicral cooperation, buturxcssful multilateral alliance willterm and difficult
Another problem wilbe relations between ACC members and other Arab states. Close Egyptian end Jordanian political, rnihtary, and economic ties to the Gulf states, for example, will complicate ACC cooperative efforts--particularly BBBBBBBBBfJ the GCC
states perceive tbe ACCompeting political, economic, and rnihtary grouping. For similar reasons, Egypt's and North Yemen's shared security interests with Red Sea a'ttoraJ states,Saudi Arabia, could create problems for these two countries in balancing potentially competing interests. Egypt, io particular, it concerned about tbe Red Sea's vulnerability lo mining and is also interested in economic development with the littoral states. Saudi parti ci pa -con wui be essential to Cairo in developing cooperative ventures is the Red Sea and could be
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witheld because of Egypt's role in the ACC Finally, Jordan and North Yemen will be sensitive to the impact of the ACC on their bilateral relations with Syria and Saudi Arabia, respectively.esult, both Amman and Sanaa may give less than their full commitment to the ACC
A number of factors will constrain ACC military cooperationgypt
wfll be hesitant to commit combat units abroad in support of the ACC Egypt's militaryin tbe Yemeni civil war In, which0 or more Egyptian troops in an unpopular and inconclusive campaign, sometimes dubbed "Egypt's Vietnam,ignificant deterrent topdaa expeditionary forces Anojd^mmkWm' Jon'jr. would probably be sensitive to Saudi security concerns in deploying any forces to North Yemen and would be vulnerable to potential Saudi countermoves to cut economic2 bu!km over ihe past three years. Moreover, Amman withdrew its soan advisory contin-
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from North Yemen but year because Sanaa could not afford to pay for theapability and willingness to foot Jordanian and Egyptian military costs for suchas joint exercises will probably be another impoitanilactor in expanding military
Weak trade lies and disparate economic systems will make economic integrationPledges of cooperation are likely to be severely tested once negotiations begin on how lo reconcile differing currency regimes, coordinate investment procedures, and forge common in-dustrial, agricultural, and trade policies.
ACC members aUmassedillion ia foreign debt
; financial woes. Combined, they have irdan, and Iraq have severe foreignshortages aad debt-servicing problems. These problems will pose significanton econocnic integration by forcing ACC members to focus on means to improve clomestic economic performance. For example, ihe servicing of growing foreign debt wfll severely limit the funds available for joint development projects and compel ACC countries to seek increased trade links to the West, probably at ihe expense of efforts to expandCC commerce. Many of the goods and services these countriesneed are available only in the West, further inhibiting intra ACC commercial ties, aflH
ACC leaders have left open the possibility that other Arab states could join the Council. Membership might be attractive to poor countries lflce Sudan or South Yemen that would hope lo reap economic benefits from Iraq, but expansion would multiply the problems involvedhe organization work.
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Original document.
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