ITEMOLOMBIA'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: THE NEW NARCOTICS WMMMMMMMmi
JINCE THE COLOMBIAN GOVERNMENT LAUNCHED ITS ANTIDRUG OFFENSIVE IN MID-AUGUST, NARCOTICS HAS BECOME THE DOMINANT POLITICAL ISSUE THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY. HELPED BY THE ENSUING ATTACK-COUNTERATTACK TACTICS OF SECURITY FORCES CN THE ONE BAND AND THE TRAFFICKERS ON THE OTHER, THE DRUG ISSUE'S POLITICAL IMPACT KILL BE UNDERSCORED BY THEAY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. THAT CONTEST IS NOT ONLYIGH LEVEL OF INTERNATIONAL SCRUTINY BUT MILL ALSO IN PART DETERMINE THE COURSE OF COLOMBIA'S FUTURE ANTIDRUG CAMPAIGN.
THE CATALYST FOR THE CRACKDOWN WAS ITSELF POLITICAL: THE ASSASSINATION OF POPULAR PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE LUIS CARLOS GALAN ONUGUST, AN ACT THAT FOLLOWED NUMEROUS ATTACKS SY DRUG INTERESTS ON COLOMBIA'S JUDICIARY AND OTHER INSTITUTIONS. ALTHOUGH TRAFFICKER VIOLENCE, PROPAGANDA, ANO OTHER TACTICS HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY STIRRED OPPOSITION TO THE CRACKDOWN, PRESIDENT VIRGILIO BARCO HAS RETAINED SUFFICIENT SUPPORT TO SUSTAIN IT. AT THIS POINT, THE SECURITY FORCES REMAIN COMMITTED TO APPREHENDING PABLO ESCOBAR AND OTHER TOP TRAFFICKERS, THE SUPREME COURT HAS NOT YIELDED TO PLOYS TO OVF-RTL'RH THE EXTRAORDINARY DECREES THAT EMPOWER BOGOTA TO EXTRADITE TRAFFICKERS AND SEIZE THEIR PROPERTIES, ANJ MANY ELEMENTS CF THE PRESS CONTINUE TO REJECT TRAFFICKER ENTREATIES FOR ACCOMMODATION; INSTEAD, THEY ARE DEMANDING STERN GOVERNMENT ACTION AGAINST THE
NARCOTICS TRADE. THE POLITICAL SETTING
THE ELECTION COMESIME WHEN COLOMBIA'S ANTI- NARCOTICS OFFENSIVE IS GAINING INTERNATIONAL RESPECT. PRESIDENT BARCO, FOR HAS i'ECFNTI.Y FOLLOWED HIS SUCCESSFU: FEBRUARY ANTIDRUG
NOFORN,NOCONTRACT,ORCON,WNINTEL
TRACf7"WlCPN, WNINTEL
SUMMIT WITH THF US, BOLIVIAN, ANO PERUVIAN PRESIDENTS IN COLOMBIA "ITH AN EQUALLY EFFECTIVE VISIT TO EUROPE. THESE EFFORTS HAVE PRODUCED SUBSTANTIAL COMMITMENTS OF ANTINARCOTICS ASSISTANCE FOR COLOMBIA, INCLUDING0 MILLION RECENTLY PLEDGED BY THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY COUNTRIES. EQUALLY REWARDING, FROM COLOMBIA'S POINT OF VIEW, HAS BEEN THE OFFICIAL RECOGNITION THAT CONSUMER AND TRANSIT COUNTRIES, AS WELL AS THE ANDEAN PRODUCERS, SHARE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE OVERALL COCAINE PROBLEM. IN OUR JUDGMENT, BOTH ACHIEVEMENTS HAVE HELPED SOMEWHAT TO ASSUAGE CONCERNS IN COIOMBIA THAT IT HAS CARRIED AN UNFAIR BURDEN IN THE DRUG WAR.
DOMESTICALLY, MEANWHILE, TRAFFICKER PROPAGANDA AND VIOLENCE HAVE HELPED FOCUS PUBLIC ATTENTION ON THE ANTIDRUG OFFENSIVE AND ELEVATE ITEADING CAMPAIGN ISSUE. THE TRAFFICKERS HAVEUMBER OF HIGH-PROFILE STUNTS--SUCH AS SURRENDERING LABORATORIES, DYNAMITE, ANDA BID TO MAKE THEIR OFFER TO NEGOTIATE AN END TO TKE DRUG WAR APPEAR SINCERE AND, IN SO DOING, TO SHIFT THE ONUS FOR DRUG-RELATED VIOLENCE ONTO THE SECURITY FORCES. NEVERTHELESS, THEY CONTINUE ATTACKS AIMED AT CRIPPLING THE ABILITY AND SAPPING THE MORALE OF THE SECURITY AGENCIES, AS REFLECTED. FOR EXAMPLE, IN THEIR RECENT KILLING OF DOZENS OF ELITE AND OTHER NATIONAL POLICE OFFICERS IN MEDSLLIN IN RESPONSE TO ALLEGED GOVERNMENT ATROCITIES AGAINST DRUG INTERESTS. IN ADDITION, ALTHOUGH THE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE ASSASSINATIONS OF LEFTIST PATRIOTIC UNION {UP) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE BERNARDO JARAM1LLO IN MARCH9 CANDIDATE LEON PIZARRO GOMEZ IN APRIL ARE UNCLEAR, THE ACTS HIGHLIGHTED THE CONTINUING VULNERABILITY OF COLOMBIA'S LEADING POLITICIANS TO VIOLENCE. |
AGAINST THIS BACKDROP, THE COURSE OF ANTI NARCOTICS POLICY HAS EMERGEDENTRAL CAMPAIGN ISSUE FOR THE FIRST TIMEOLOMBIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. THE CONTINUED HIGH PROFILE OF THE DRUG WAR IS INCREASINGLY FORCING COLOMBIANS TO WEIGH THE THREAT OF AN UNCHECKED DRUG TRADE ON COLOMBIA'S DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS ON ONE PAND AGAINST THE SOCIOECONOMIC AND POLITICAL COSTS OF SUSTAINING THE CRACKDOWN ON THE OTHER. THE DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE FRONTRUNH1NG LIBERAL CANDIDATE ANC HIS SOCIAL CONSERVATIVE CHALLENGER ON THE DRUG PROBLEM UNDERSCORES THE GROWING POLITICAL IMPORTANCE OF THIS ISSUE.
THE key PLAYERS
WE 3ELIF.VF. THAT THE RULINGARTY CANDIDATE, OFFERS THE BEST PROSPECTS ONTINUATION ofANTINAHCOTICS POLICIES UNDER THE NEXT ADMINISTRATION. PROTEGE, GAVIRIA HANDILY WON THE LIBERAL PARTY PRIMARY AS D S THE PL EAR front RUNNER FOR THE MAYALTHOUGH HIS APPEAL STEMSFROM COLOMBIA'S
TRADITIONAL POLITICAL BROKERS, AND YOUTH, GAVIRIA'S STRONG AN71DRDG VIEWS HAVE NEVERTHELESS SET HIM APART FROM HIS COMPETITORS. AS
narcotics
TRADEUSgAMENTATrrr^vTOLENT INDUSTRY THAT POSES AN INTRINSIC THREAT TO COLOMBIA'S SECURITY. THIS PERCEPTION HAS MADE GAVIRIA A
NOFORN,NOCONTRACJ>ORCON.WNINTEL
DEFENDER OF THE CRACKDOWN, EVEN AS OPPORTUNISTS WITHIN HIS PARTY AS WELL AS OPPONENTS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY CRITICAL OF BARCO'S REFUSAL TO NEGOTIATE WITH DRUG INTERESTS AND OTHER ASPECTS OF THE
THE TARGET OF TRAFFICKER TP-REATS EARLY IK THE PRIMARY, GAVIRIA HAS OLITICAL STRATEGY THAT ATTEMPTS TO AVOID DRAMATIZING THE NARCOTICS ISSUE. TO THIS END. HE HAS STRESSED TKE NEED FOR JUDICIALONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM, AND INCREASED EMPLOYMENT AS THE MAJOR THEMES OF HIS CAMPAIGN. NEVERTHELESS, HIS POSITIONS AND ACTIONS SUGGEST THAT AN ADMINISTRATION UNDER HIS IEADERSHIP MOULD KEEP ANTINARCOTICS EFFORTS FOCUSED ON DISMANTLING COIOHBLA'S POWERFUL DRUG NETWORKS BY APPREHENDING THE TOP TRAFFICKERS AND THEIR LIEUTENANTS. FOR INSTANCE, GAVIRIA CONTINUES TO BACK THE USE OF EXTRADITION IN THE ABSENCETRONG JUDICIARY, EVEN THOUGH HE--LIKE MANY INFLUENTIAL COLOMBIANSAJORITY OF THETHE POLICY AS AN AFFRONT TO COLOMBIA'S SOVEREIGNTY. GAVTPIA'5 FRAGMATIC, TOUGH APPROACH KITH REGARD TO EXTRADITION IS CONSISTENT WITH HIS ADVOCACY OF THIS TACTIC AND ASSET SEIZURE WHILE HE SERVED AS BARCO'S MINISTER OF FINANCE ANC MINISTER OF GOVERNMENT. THE CURRENT EFFECTIVENESS OF THESE MEASURES, ACCORDING TO GAVIRIA, IS REFLECTED BY THE TRAFFICKERS' OFFER TO "SURRENDER," WHICH HE VIEWSACIT ADMISSION THAT THEIR CAMPAIGN OF VIOLENCE HAS SEEN COUNTER PRODUCTIVE. HE RECENTLY UNDERSCORED HIS BACKING FOR THE CRACKDOWN BY DEFENDING THE GOVERNMENT'S RIGHT TO EXTRADITE BASED ON THE STATE-OF^IEGE POWERS CHANTED TO THE PRESIDENT UNDER THE CONSTITUTION.
IN CONTRAST, GAVIRIA'S OPPONENTS HAVE STAKED TKEIR CAMPAIGNS ON ATTACKING THE GOVERNMENT'S ASTINARCOT- ICS POLICIES IN AN EFFORT TO PUT GAVIRIA ON THE DEFENSIVE AND OVERCOME HIS LARGE LEAD IN THE
POLLS FOR EXAMPLE, LEADING SOCIAL CONSERVATIVE CANDIDATE "
.TTFMPTENCHANT TO TF.GY ALSO USED BY
AJOR CAMPAIGN ISSUE, HE HAS CALLED FOR AN IMMEDIATE^N. SUCH NATIONALISTIC EXPLOIT THE SOVERE SETTLE METTLESOME PI THE TRAFFICKERS.
OTHER CANDIDATES HAVE ALSO SEIZED ON NARCOTICS TO ENTER RACE AT THr IAST MINUTE, MOVES THAT HAVE LED TO FURTHER FRAGMENTATION OF TKE OPPOSITION AND SOLIDIFICATION OF GAVIRIA'S LEAD. VENERABLE SOCIAL CONSERVATIVE CAMPAIGNER ALVARO GOMEZ, FOR INSTANCE, RECENTLY DECLARED HIS CANDIDACY WITH AN EVEN MORE STKIDF.N1 ATTACK ON THE DRUG CRACKDOWN. HE HAS PROPOSED NOTARDON FOR ALL TRAFFICKERS BUT ALSO THE LEGALIZATION OF THE DRUG TRADE. fBMgmmm
OUTLOOK
WE BELIEVE THAT THE CAMPAIGN HAS SET THE STAGE FOR AN INTENSIFIED POLITICAL STRUGGLE BETWEEN DRUG INTERESTS AND THE NEXT ADMINISTRATION. ALTHOUGH THE PRO3ABLE GAVIRIA VICTORY WOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCEONTINUATION OF THE BARCO GOVERNMFNT'S TOUGH
NOFORN,NOCONTRACT,ORCON,WNINTEL ffaCRXT
NOFORN,NOCONTI
ORCON(WNINTEL
AMTI- NARCOTICS POLICIES, TRAFFICKERS HAVE USEDELECTION PROCESS TO STRENGTHEN TIES TO OFFICIALS IN CONGRESS ANO ELSEWHERE *'tIOXPECT TO PROMOTE THEIR INTERESTS WHEN the new GOVERNMENT TAKES
oEugust.
IF ELECTED. GAVIRIA FACES THE CHALLENGE OF TRYING TOLONG-TERM POLITICAL REFORMS WITHOUT UNDERCUTTINGOFFENSIVE. IN THIS REGARD, DRUG INTERESTSTO SHIFT THF. THRUST OF THE GOVERNMENT'S OFFENSIVE AWAY SECURITY FORCES--WHERE THEY HAVEUMBER OFTHE judiciary, WHERE THEY CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE FOR EXAMPLE, ARE LIKELY TO WORK QUIETLY TOJUDICIAL REFORM AND EVEN THE CREATION OFTO TRY THE MOST VIOLENT CRIMINALS, IFOING SO THEYABROGATE EXTRADITION. ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONFLICT LIESSTRONG SUPPORT VOTERS EXPRESSED DURING THE MARCH ELECTIONS FORCN CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM. GAVIRIA BACKS THIS MOVEMENTLIKELY TO CONVOKE SUCH AN ASSEMBLY SHORTLY AFTER TAKINGTO THE US EMBASSY, TRAFFICKERS HAVE LONG SOUGHTON SUCH ANNEARLY SUCCEEDED IN DOINGATIONAL REFERENDUM TO HAVEUNCONSTITUTIONAL. "
Original document.
Comment about this article, ask questions, or add new information about this topic: