Terrorism
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Terrorism Renew mk%
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The Release of Robeit Pothiil
Onpril Robert Polhill, one or four Beirut University College professors
kidnapped onas released by ihc Hiiballah faction Islamic
Jihad for theXiberation of Palestineolhill was turned over to Syrian Brig.
Gen. Ghazi Khanan in ftont of the Summer land Hotel in West Beirut and was
driven to Damascus to be turned over lo thc US Ambassador. After medical
evaluations and debriehngs, Polhill returned io ihe United Stale* onpril. His
release was undoubtedly the result of daman and Syrian pressure on the hostage
holders over thc past several months. In the aftermath of,
speculation continues lhal additional hostage* will be freed in ihe near term,
ole
Hizballah factions are apparently subject in varying degrees to Iranianbelieve Ihefaction within Hizballah that still holds USTurner and Alann(he Revolutionary Justicethat probably coniiols Joseph Cicippio and Edwardby Iran. Both factions appear to be more susceptible toIhe hpsjageis the Islamic Jihad(3)
which probably controls Terry Anderson and Thomas Sutherland. <
leaders showed thai ihey had some control over (he exact timing of the release as they yielded to externalne of thc group's officials, Hussein Musawi, made several statements to (hc press indicatingelease would take place bui that the timing was still being worked out. Thc hostage holder* claimed they delayed the scheduled release forours because the United States refuted to comply with the kidnappers' demand thai Assistant Secretary of State John H. Kelly be sent to Damascus to complete Ihe arrange menu. It remains unclear why Ihe kidnappers wanted Kelly: however, they apparently bowed to Iranian pressureostage be releasedizballah opposilion may abo have been encoufaf cd to begin releasing hostages by statements made by Hizballah spiritual snide Fadlallah. support ins Rafsanjani's call* for release andeondemning hostage holding for tarnishing Islam. taVafanT*
Iran's Role
Hoi Hill's release appears to hare been the result of months of effort by Iranian President Rafsanjani io break the stalemate over tbe hostages. We believe Rafsanjani's latest initiative began with (he February Tehran Timet editorial calling for the "unconditional" release of the hostages. Iran's growing economic woes and its continued international isolation probably prompted Rafsanjani to push (be hostage holderselease. VViibin thc Government, hardline clement* led hy former Interior Minister Mobiashcmi-Pur apparently slowed the process by warning against dealings with the "Great Satan" Negotiations between Iran and
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lhc hostage jiolcJers apparently look place between February and late-,'Gahrarnani. brother of Iranian Preaidentmade several trips to Beirut ai-sTDarrieacus in March and early April,probably met with Hiiballah leaders to dficuss lhe hostage situation W)
Syria's Rol<
Damascusigher profile in Ihe Polhill release ihan in rnosi pre-ious
releases of Western hostages, in which it acted primarily a* an imermediary
between Washington and Tehran. During the pasi iwo monlhs. Syrian officials
made eKmiraging public staiemenu and consulted closely with Iranian official!
who had deali wiih ihe hosiage holders on the Polhill release. tVaantw
Assad's greater involvement is inlended lo improve Syria's relations with the West.
He wants lhe United Slate* and tbe European Communily lo drop economic
sanctions against Syria and to provide help for ihe country's troubled economy.
The growing uncertainly in Sen-iei-Syrian relations is contributing to lhc urgency
in Damascus of improving ties to lhe West. Assad may calculafeThat Syrian
cooperation on the hosiage issue will erode lhe Weiiern view of Syriatale
supporter of
Assad appears willingelp in securing ihc release of the remaining Western hostages. He probably believes ihe Uniied Slates it interested in forging better lies, given Waahington's criiiciim of Israel's policies in the occupied lertorItories and recent visits io Damascusigh-level Congressional delegation and former senior US officials. Ncverlhelesj. Assad almosi certainly is sympathetic lo the apparent interests of Tahran and its Lebanese allies to link lhe release of Western
hostages to that of Lebanese Shi'a and Palestinian captives in Lebanon. Israel. Kuwait, and Western Europe. He will probably cooperate with tbe Untied Slates only if Washing (on tries to accommodate Syria's interests and those of its- Iranian and Lebanese allies, nmmmh
utlook
Even as rumors of additional hostage release] surface, Hiiballah continues iu criticism of the United Slates.ays after Polhifl sHiiballah official Hussein Musawi accused the United Slates of responding to the release wkhJII will and urged pro-Iranian Shi'a militants to continue holding their captives. As lbc number of icmaining hostages decreases. Hiiballah is likely to emphasise ils demand for the release of prisoners in Israel. Kuwait, and Western Europe. Is-SfST
Iranian officials will continue to stress Ihe need for reciprocal gestures by Washington. Rafsanjani's efforts on the hostages arc drawing criticism from his hardline ce>ponenis, who are apparently concerned that hostage releases are the tncyjiable prelude lo direel contacts with Washington. Mohushesni-Pur recently described the Untied States aserocious animal that can only harm the intercits of Iran" and warnedoycott was necessary io safeguard revolutionary purity. Assembly Speaker Karrubt has alto warned of lbc dangers of com acts with thc United Stales,r]
Highlights
t> Slgnifiennlopments
Scnderooicseelion Vlolnn
Peru's Seasdero Lstmirsoso (SL) insurgent*ntensified their campaign of eleeiioo year terrorism, tilting advantage of tela ice security following the lateat
Aprildate, SL bit assassinated several PeruvinrKloverrifneni official*,and other localormer social securitymoltoScial yet "rilled by SL- SL has also attacked bridges, powetlinq./ buildings, destroyed a truek. While much of the current violence is linked to SL'* effort loelection process, some intideni* are in retaliation against eommunilie*antiguertllla activitiei. In one recent case in Juninncluding women and Children SL wilt probably t? campaign of terror at lead through the runoff elect iot on
Violence In Kashmir
Violence in Kashmir hat been escalalingpril, ibe ttudcni wing of the Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front kiduppcd ihc ice chancellor of Kashmiri Lmrveaaity, hi* secretary, and an official of thc state-run Hindustan Machineeveral days later the three were murdered after ihe government lefuscd to
threereviouily
unknown militant group, Ihelaimed responsibility for thepril bombings of two police stations in New Delhi, which wounded nine officers, and for the I! April bombing ofa passenger train in Bombay,eople. Than* wcra tbc first attacks outside Kashmir since tbc militants began Ibeir campaign last year. Tbesrltl In crease because* Kaahmirrdered police and Kashmirdoi
Direct Role Extended in Punjab
In early April. New Delhi extended direct rule of Punjab for another sUunjab has been ruled directly by lhe federal governmeni tinceoderate Sikh administration was dismissed and the atate legislature dissolved by New Delhi amid increasing separatist violence. This latest extension is likely to bolster Sikb militants, tjjBL
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Terrorism in Asia in the
Trends and ProspectsW
Alien countries, particularly thendia, and Pakistan, will ccetiinoe to (ace chronic largely domes tk. terrorist threat* inver the ibort term, (he Philippine Government will face tbe greatest challenge as Cornjnunitt insurgentsty retort to terrorism. The asaaaaioalioa of US diplomatic and military personnel willey clement oT tbe insure end' strategy. We believe ihat communalill remain the driving force for most terrorist groupa on the Indian subcontinent. Although Nonh Korea bas not directly carriederrorist act'yongyanghreat toorea and mi|ht resort to terrorism if convinced that rueh attacks would destabiliia the South Korean Genensrocnt. Even if Pyongyang does not carry out attacka,illatron en* revolutionary gioups, some of which carry out acla of terrorism. Iran and Libya will probably view Asia as an aitrac-ile for tcrrceiini^and for bases- of operations.
Philippines
The Communist threat to the Aquino government and to US unci cut in the Philippines will remain high for several years. If Ihe Communists continue lb suffer military setbacks, we believe Ihey will resortto terrorist attacks in an effort to undermine the government. The Cnrnmuniit New people's Army (NPA) has assassinated eight Americansnd Its resolve to attack US personnel and facilities is unlikely to diminish, even if the Philippine Govern-men! makes significant inroads againat then. Aweaker NPA may pose aa even greater risk to Americans because lhe insurgents would blame their setbacks on US suppori io the Aquino admmutratioe. Although senior US dtplomals and military officers are likely to remain the NPA's primary targets, lite Insurgents will not hesitateill lower ranking US personnel aad may resortttacks on American busineases. ajjjajn*
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1 .j. t TllrOllltS Iu Seard ati.'i aliens
The International cotlopit of Marxism probably will forct lomt Itfiln Irrroriu groups tofiiuf new ways IO aiiroei new supporters. We believe lhal iht standard lefii iiat calls for clanhave little. If any. appeal to Allan youths and even fall io motivate lome memberi af radicalNationalism mayriving force for many groups. We suspect that. In theIsm's rapid decline, lhe NPA will attempt to rally support by stressing In nationalist credentials andat least to thedoctrine. Extreme leftistJ|agn) may Iry lo attract new supporters by emphasis trig theircredentials. We suspect tame groups In Asia will try to exploit the growing lateral In environmem taltsm and claim the Issue as iheir own. Chukaku-ke. foF-tsampIt, is trying to playrole In Ihe antinuelear campaign. OrganJiatlons ihat do not adapt io the changing Ideological climate probably will retainmall core of fanatical supporters
US personnel also arc threatened by righlsrirtg mill tarysniculnrty over Ihe short term.
oup, wc believe aome of these dissidents would threaten US personheL Other soldiers, while noi dissidenu, oiay-not be willing to provide adequate security support to US facilitiesbe *krw to respond to requests for assistance
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The Moro National Liberation Front (MNLFlto posemall threat to Americansa Maslim separatist groi-p. hasand other foreig neri for ransom fromtime All of theseccurredhowever, and most Americans haveQuickly; otherationals havefor several months Although the MNLFLibyan and Iranian support, there isthat the group will attack fc"JS&*nifor the
Radical Middk Eastern groups may viewenue for terrorismas an operational support bate/-
India
Communal violence will grip India throughout, and many militant group* will probably resort to terrorist tactics. Although few. if any. or these groups will target Americans. US citizen* will be at risk incidentally, particularly in attacks against the Indian transportation system,
1 We
cspect that Punjabi radicals will confinue il.-ir cam. paign of intimidation and violence until the central government,inimum, satisfies iheir demands for significantly greater sel
Sikh violence probably will not significantly spill into of India. eaWbsts*sss1*f^
all Sikh organizations focus their operations in Pun-
li'rly
to continue to focu. on fundraistng for their parent bod.es
Kashmir will remain wracked by violence.by the Jammj and Kashmircontinue to carry outid lo win independence for
ralists have ihc tacit support of the majority of Kashmiris, complicating government efforts lo rcso.'ve the problem. Over ibe short term,elieve lhal the Indian Government Bill try io restore order ihrough the maiti'e deployment of seeurily forces I
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1 raawnHIW.yaV(
tVpvtr ihe pan few years ihe Indian Governmeni Improveda!'Port
DOM inDelhi ond
Bombay art no longer soft largels
Airport security In lhe Philippines aim has
Governmeni htgh
^ marks for upgrading phyiieal ttturity and Inspection procedures at thejltnoy Aquino Internationalanila.
Pastislan/Afgbaniitan
AlchcuihAfoflM isdecline in, violent feudingmujahidin faction* will continue tocountry.
ii year.
declined ligniftcantly. probably because the bombingi damaged Kabul* iniernaiional image. In our view, feuding mujahidin faction* arc largely rescemsible foe lhe spate of bombings in Peshawar this year They probably are alto responsible for some auacks agaimt Westerners. The bombing* are likely to continue because of thc deep d> vision* jrjtfcin lhc Afghan refugee community in Peshawar and lhe Pallium Government'* inability to stop such WkMljMRdiplomats and refugeeat highand tome win be targeted by mujahidinbelieve ihai the Untied Stales has betrayed iheirmm
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Pro-Iranian Pakistani Shi'a, particularly ihc Move-men! for ibe Implementation of Shi'a Jurisprudence (TNFJ) and iu student wing, the Imamia Students' Organizationillhreai to US personnel in Pakistan. Th; TNf-'Jolitical party composed of militant Shi'as. "
I The ISO Is sospected of the bombing in5 of the Pan Am office in Ul
inimum, wc believe these groups will support and carry out terrorist attacks to further their own goals and those of Tehran.
We believe that Iran and Libya will continue to ri. Pakitun as an attractive operational environment for terrorism. I
Southeast Asia
Militant groups in Southeast Alia, some of which have used lerrorist tactics, will poseodest threats:
- The Free Papua Mmcrncnt (OPMloose ootke-lion of rebel* active in Irian Jaya and the Indone-slan/Papua New Gulnean border Although ihe group poses no imminent threat to Westerners, we believe thai USPM leaders believe the United States is propping up the Suharto governmcni. The OPM may also consider kidnapping Americsns lo bring attention to iu cause.
The Acrh Mcrdcka Movement (Free Acchin Indonesia has been largely inactive since lheOs. when it attempted to eaton money from US firm* andobil OilThcctivity increased somewhat lasl year, but there is no evidence it is targeting
Iran and Libya aire likely to view several countries Southeast Asia as an attractive base of operations, and both will attempt to rccarit_local supporters
North Korea'* Support for Terrorbm North Korea hai noi been delected carryingirect act of terroritm tincc memberstatMSMI
ombuth Korean airliner
Korea carefully plots iu attacks, and long lull* between them are not unusual. *mm
Over the next few yean several factor* will determine North Korea's commitment to terrorism. Sensitive to the public relations penalties of iu pasi operations. Pyongyang may now be less inclined lo carry outorth Korea is more likely lo resoat- to
teriorism. however, if it believed such attacks would duuhiliie ihe South Korean Government As Kim Choni-tl succeeds his father a* head of state. North Korea's involvement in terrorism could increase,if tho younger Kim encounters opposition and believes he can diminub it by raising tension.id iocstalyie political unrest in the South, tbe Norib could target South Korean miliiary and government leaders. US military personnel and bases, or even opposition South Korean political figure* if il believes il can conceal ils hand
Wc believe North Korea ss likely to provide training and sanctuary to revolutionaryome of which conduct acts of terrorism. Various Middle Easlern radical organisations that arc likely to lose their bates of operations ia Easternmosi certainly view Pyongyang as an aliernaiive. We believe that Northsec* Itself as one of the tail bastions of armedlikely to welcome some of them In addition, we cipcet Pyongyang to provide aid to South Korean tadicalome of which may carry oul terroiiiltw*
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Chronology of Terrorismf ^
%Iow are described seleeltd noteworthy foreign and international event*terrorists or the uie of terrorist tatties. These evems hove occurred or come to light sinct our last issut. In some casts. Ihe perpetrators and iheir motivations
may not be known. Events and developments thqihove already been described
elsewhere In this publication are not included fff ,
Western ;
JIreland: Prorisional Irish Republican Army /PIRA) bomb discovered
' oattide Fort George Army Base near Londonderry. The device warafter thc area was evacuated ffjf
Greece: Bomb explodes near residence of former Minister and New Democracyrother in Iraklion, Crete. No moup claimed responsibility.*^
3Bombs explode at Ministry of Notional Economy, General Confederation
of Greek Workers, and Federation of Greek Industries Association in Athens. Thc Revolutionary Popular Struggle anday Group claimed
**Gunmen shoot and kill Civil Guard member neardih-retidtutt in Pasejet.
The Basque Fatherland and Liberty (ETAI is probably responsible ^
%ev Sol detonates bombs at six miliiary and national police stations In
Istanbul and seventh ft business center near military hospital. ^Jg* 1.
Terra Lliure bombi memorial statue in San Cugal, injuring two persons.
The group is believed responsibleecond bomb Blffice in Montscrrai JJ^ ,
Spain: ETA launches six grenades ot Civil Guard installation in Ltknaberrl, injuring four guardsmen and killing detection dog that tripped boobyirap device.
10Separatist ttrrorisis kill seven family members during raid on Ortulu
hamlet in Sllrt Province^ fo ;.
Middle East
Amal.offieial is asiaijinaied by guumen in Beirut. Hiiballah has denied responsibility for the attack.'X
Egypt: Thrrt attaeke't on motorcycle throw bombs end dirttr gunfire on Coplie church in Sanhur. killing one policeman end injuring rwojtM
Wtst Bank Shott firtd al km en route from Qiryat Arba' to Jerusalem. Immar. injuring one Itraell pane- 0
Americaerck
Chile: ISO-gram bomb falli ta eiplade ai Institute Chilean Norteamiricano Binatioaal Center ia Chilian. No oat ha* claimed tcsponsibilit*^^ *>
Chile: Bomb iettreyst freedom and Development Institute foe PoliticalStadie, and Public Opinion im Santiago. No one hi* claimed resporsteUty jf P
Chile: Mantel Rodrigaei Patriotic Pront terrorists detonate bombat residence of two Justices of the Supreme Courl ia Santiago, off . ^
El Salvador: Suspected Fartibundo Marti National liberation Front member, assassinate judgenion Papas-
pril
my gunmen assassinate police centtabalary captain
to**
ncendiary devices destroy residence af managing director affapaa Aircraft Mannfeeluriai Ceanpoaty In Kamakt.ro, injuring him and killing hit wife. Chnkuha-ha claimedblli(y
Pakistan: Bomb explosion under parked car aUslamebad mar hai. injurei tin children. No one ha* claimed retpoi) ttW
Pakistan: Bomb' l'lf '
Parar^nar^apltal.e pe-ient and wouadiag 28
Original document.
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