THE BREAK-UP OF THE COLONIAL EMPIRES AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR US SECURITY
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THE BREAK-UP OF THB COLONIAL EMPIRES AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR US SECURITY
SUMMARY
The growth of nationalism in colonial areas, which has already succeeded In breakingarge part of the European colonial systems and ineries of new, nationalistic states In the Near and Far East, has major implications for US security, particularly In terms of possible world conflict with thehis shift of the dependent areas from the orbit of the colonial powers not only weakens the probable European allies of the US but deprives the US itself ot assured access to vital bases and raw materials in these areas In event of war. Should the recently liberated and currently emergent states become oriented toward the USSR. US military and economic security would be seriously threatened.
World War IIremendous Impetus to the colonial independenceThe UK withdrew from India-Pakistan and Burma, while Uie Dutch and French, exhausted by war, appear unable to suppress the Indonesian and Indochincse nationalists by force, or. despite any temporary compromise solutions, to be able lo arrest their eventual achievement of genuine Independence. Orowlng nationalism In French North Africa threatens French hegemony. While the colonial issue in most remaining dependencies Is not yet acute, native nationalism In many of these areas loo will exert Increasing pressure for autonomy or Independence.
This marked postwar development of the colonial Independence movement has resulted from: (l) the release of bottled-up nationalist activities in Uie Far Eastesult of Japan's defeat of the colonial powers in World War II and itsot local nationalism In occupiedhe postwar military and economic weakness of the colonial powers, which has made them less able to resist nationalist demands and led them lo grant concessions or even independence lo theirhe increasing tendency of liberal-socialist elements in the colonial powers to favor voluntary liquidation of restive colonialidespread support of colonial Independence movementsarge group of recently liberated and other sympathetic states, particularly the USSR;reation of the United Nations, which hasorum for agltaUng the colonial issueechanism for Ils liquidation.
Because of these factors, further disintegration of the remaining colonial empires appears Inevitable. Belated concessions by Uie colonial powers, at least on the limited Note: Tlie Information in this report8
rganUaUons Ot the Departments of S'-aie.nd Ihe Navy have eon-cuiied in this report, the Alt Intelligence Division. Air Intelligence Directorate. Department oi Iht Aii Force, had no comment
'In this papei the term "colonial-usedroad seni* to denote the relationship!Uw metropolitan powers and theli dependent and scmi-deneitdent areas, whether these be
colonies, mandates, protectorates, or treaty relationships. Similarly (he phrase "colonial Issue" Is meant to encompass all differences between the colonial powers and their dependent areas arising
from the development of local nationalism.
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scale presently contemplated, do not meet the basic nationalist demand Torand are unJiXely to be more than temporarily effective, except in more backward areas. The colonial powers appear unwilling (or the most part to recognize fully the force or nationalism In their remaining dependencies and to take the leadership In guiding these toward genuine independence or self-government.
esult of the rapid breaking-up of the colonialew power situation is developing in the former colonial world. No longer can the Western Powers rely on large areas of Asia and Africa as assured sources of raw materials, markets, and mililary bases. In contrast to the ever closer Integration of the Satellites Into the Soviet system, there Is an Increasing fragmentation of the non-Soviet world. This process Is already largely completed, with many of the most important colonial and semi-colonial areas, like India. Burma, the Arab states, and the Philippines already Independent, and Indonesia and Indochina well on the road. These new states will be free to choose their future alignments, which will be largely conditioned by theof the Soviet and Western Power blocs toward the colonial issue and their economic demands.
The colonial Independence movement, therefore, is no longeromestic Issue between the European colonial powers and their dependencies. It has been Injected Into the larger arena of world politics and has become an element tn the broader problems of relations between Orient and Occident, between Industrialized and "underdeveloped" nations, and between the Western Powers and the USSR. The newly Independent and older nations of the Near and Far East strongly sympathize with the aspirations of still dependent areas, to which they are bound by racial and religious ties. These nations are further bound together in varying degree by two other Issues which tend to set them off against the colonial powers and the US: namely, the growing economic nationalism ot the "underdeveloped" areas and the underlying racial antagonism between white and native peoples All Intensely nationalistic, the Near and Far Eastern nations tend lo unite in opposition to the Western European powers on the colonial issue and to US economic dominanceesult there hasendency toward the formalion In the UN and affiliated bodieso-called "colonialhose members have already brought colonial disputes into the UN and will iikcly take the lend in attempting in this manner to hasten the liberation of further colonial areas The colonial Issue and economic nationalism, therefore, will continue toource of friction between the colonial powers and the US on Ihe one hand, and the states of the Near and Far East on the other. The gravest danger to the US is that friction engendered by Ihcse issues may dr;ve the so-called colonial bloc Inlo alignment wiih the USSR
The USSR is effectively exploiting the colonial issue and the economic nationalism of the underdeveloped arraseans of dividing the non Soviet world, weakening the Western Powers, and gaining the good will of colonial and former colonial areas Ever since Worldhe USSR has sought lo Infiltrate the nationalist parties inareas and. more recently, to play up the colonial issue and the so-calledimperialism of the Western Powers In the UN. The poverty and underprivileged
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position of the population in these areas, their latent hostility toward the occupyingorthe existence of leftist elementsthem, make them peculiarly susceptible to Soviet penetration.
Consequently, the good will of the recently liberated and emergent Independent nationsital factor in the future strategic position of the US In the Near and Far East. In addition, the restoration of the economic contnbulion of their colonies is important to the economic stability of the Western European powers, which the US is endeavoring to create. Short-sighted colonial policies, however, will In the long run cause the colonial powers to lose the very economic and strategic advantages In their dependencies which they are anxious to retain. Unless, therefore, thecolonial powers can be induced to recognize the necessity for satisfying theof their dependent areas and can devise formulae that will retain their good wiu as emergent or Independent states, both these powers and the US will be placederious disadvantage In the new power situation in the Near and the Far East Moreover, unless the US Itselfore positive and sympathetic attitude toward the naiional aspirations of these areas and at leasl partially meeis their demands for economic assistance, it will risk their becoming actively antagonistic toward the US.
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THE BREAK-UP OF THE COLONIAL EMPIRES AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR US SECURITY
i. Developmxnt or the Colonial Imdepindsmci Movement.
A inajor ttend In the twentieth century world power situation is the developmenttrong colonial independence movement which is In process of breaking up the colonial systems anderies of new. nationalistic states. The primary cause of the break-up of the European colonial empires Is the growth of native nationalism In these areas, simultaneously with the decbne In power and prestige of the colonial powers. This striking growth of local nationalism Is primarily the result of: (a) the rising level of political, economic, and social development In dependent areas, with resultant growing sensitivity to Inequality of treatment; (b) lhe short-sighted policies of the colonial powers, whose discriminatory treatment of subject populations andof colonial resources without attendant benefits to these populations have aroused strong resentment;eep-seated racial hostility of native populations toward their white overlords, due largely to these policies, which has taken the formeaction against "whited) the exposure of colonial areas to Western ideas of nationalism and the right to self-determination, which has made them increasingly conscious of their dependent status; and (e) the meteoric rise of Japan, whose defeats of the European powers in the Russo-Japanese War and especially World War II punctured the myth of white superiority. The colonial powers, while exposing their dependencies lo the technological advances and democratic ideals of the West, failed lo reckon with their aspirations lo achieve the same type of national self-expression which the West exemplified.
While nationalism in dependent and quasi-dependent areas first reached signifi cant proportions In the early twentieth century, il was given It* greatest impetus by Worldnd II. These conflicts, particularly the lasl. greatly weakened the colonial powers, thereby reducing their ability lo control their colonial holding by force. At the same time, reliance of these powers on colonial resources and manpower forced them lo grant concessions which greatly advanced the nationalist cause. In Worldreat Britain also fanned Arab national aspirations In order to hasten the downfall of the Turks. President Wilson's insistence upon the selfof peoples and the creation of the League of Nationsowerful stimulus to colonial aspirations for Independence.
The period beiween wars saw further development of nationalism in dependent areas, particularly In the Near Easl and India. The repercussions of the worldof, which forced the colonial powers to retrench in colonialand shattered the world raw material price structure, Increased colonialand led lo pressure for self-governmentarger share ot the proceeds ol economic exploitation. Indigenous nationalists, lesentful of political, economic, and social discrimination against Ihem. tended to attribute the depressed state of colonial
ecooomtes to the Ineptitude of the great powers. Slates like Iraq and Egypt, which had been under British tutelage, tended loore independent course In their affairs. The US groomed the Philippines for independence, while Britain was forced to make some concessions lo the growing pressure of Indian nationalism. Thepolicies of Japan, whose propaganda stressed the racist doctrine of "Asia for thereatly stimulated ihe racial hostility of East toward West.
World War II delivered another blow to the declining colonial empires. When the colonial powers proved unable to defend their Southeast Asian possessions against the Japanese onslaught, Japan, capitalizing on local feelings, set itself up as liberator of the Asiatic peoples from white oppression. Although the Japanese actuallyight rein on Southeast Asia, theyhadowy "independence" to Burma, the Philippines. Indochina, and Indonesia which further stimulated Iheir nationalAt the end of the war most Allied Far Eastern dependencies were wholly unwilling to revert to their former status, and the exhausted Allies have been unable to re-establish the status quo ante. The UK labor government, no longer willing or able to hold off the violent demands of the Indian nationalists, granted Independence to India. Pakistan, and Burma and dominion status toeakened France was forced to recognize the Independence of its Levant mandates. Syria and Lebanon. The US fulfilled its promise of freedom to the Philippines. Korea was freed from Japanese bondage. France and the Netherlands, unwilling to relinquish their rich Southeast Asian possessions to the native nationalists, became embroiled in an uneasy struggle with indigenous regimes established In these areas.
2. Cuhheht Status or thi Colonial Ihbepf.*joei*ci Movement
esult of the stimulation of native nationalism in the chaotic war and postwar periods, the remaining colonial world iserment of nationalist activity. This movement Is in varying stages of growth in different areas, depending largely upon the level of local political, economic, and social development, but in most of them the eventual goal is Independence. In the more backward areas of Asia and Africa, which arcelatively early stage of political and economic growth, nationalism is still inchoate On ihe other hand, In relatively highly developed areas like Indonesia, Indochina, and French North Africa, it has reached an advanced stage.
The two most critical colonial Issues are In Indonesia and Indochina, where the Dutch and French, exhausted by war. have been unable lo suppress the localby force and, despite temporary compromises which may be worked out. areto be able to arrest the eventual achievement of native independence. The Dutch and the Indonesian Republic are attempting toettlement designed lo bring the Republicetherlands'dominated United States of Indonesia while allowingarge degree of autonomy in all but foreign affairs and defense In Indochina the French have been unable cither lo suppress lhc nationalist Viet-Mtnh Parly or to reach mutually acceptable agreement with It In view of thestrain ofon expenditures on the unstable Fiench economy. It is likely that France eventually will have to make sweeping concessions to theThese will constitute but another step along the road lo independence.
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while nationalism in french north africa haa not yet reached the fighting stage, the development of militant native independence movements in algeria. morocco, and tunisiarowing threat to french hegemony. in tunisia and morocco, both protectorates, the nationalists have concentrated on restoration of national sovereignty under the existingureau has been established at cairo where exiled north african leaders like abd-el-krim coordinate the nationalist program. french north african nationalism is stimulated by common moslem ties with the chauvinistic arab league, which, while as yet giving little overt support to north african nationalism, may be expected to step up its activity as soon as the more pressing palestine problem is settled. mounting nationalism in libya, particularly among the cyrenalcan senus-il tribes. is complicating the disposal of this former italian colony.
although nationalism in other dependent areas has not yet attained critical proportions, there exist well denned movements in several regions which foreshadow similar problems. in most of these areas the demand at present is not so much for immediate independence asreater measure of self-government. in maiaya the heterogeneity of the population and the relatively enlightened british colonialso far have retarded rapid growth of nationalism, but the success ofareas in achieving selfcannot help but stimulate it to some extent. france's suppression of7 rebellion in madagascar has set back the malagasy nationalist movement several years, but tension will recur. in the relativelycentral african colonies the low stage of development has limited the growth of nationalism, and will do soong period. the zik movement in nigeria and the united gold coast convention, though neither very strong, are examples of rising nationalist movements in this area.
3. the colonial issue in world politics
The colonial independence movement is no longeromestic issuellie individual european colonial powers and their dependencies. it has been injected into the larger arena of world politics and has become an element in ihe broader problems of the relations between the orient and occident, betweenand "underdeveloped" nations, and between the western powers and the ussr.
a external Support ol Colonial Independence Movements
the newly liberated and older nations of the near and far east strongly sympathize with the aspirations of still dependent areas, to which they arc bound by racial and religious ties all intensely nationalistic, these countries resent uieand economic domination of adjacent areas by european powers states like india and egypt have already brought colonial issues into lhe un and may be expected increasingly to take the leadership in attempting lo hasten in this and other ways the liberation of remaining colonial areas. moreover, many of these slates are exploiting the colonial issue in their own self-interest,iew to supplanting the western powers in certain areas. india snd china both have ambitions to dominateasia, and the (alter also aspires to replace japan as the major power in the far
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East. Some of the Eastern states covet portions of the moribund colonial empires:Sudan and Cyrcnaica;adjacent former Italian colonies; andKong.
The colonial Issue, therefore, willajor source of friction between the Western European powers and the rising nations of the Near and Far East. To the extent that the US supports the European powers on this issue, it too will Incur the Ul-will of these new, nationalistic states.
Nationalism and the Colonial Issue.
The nations supporting tbe colonial Independence movement are boundby another major Issue, closely related to the struggle for political independence, which also tends to build up antagonism toward the Western European powers and the US. This Is the development, more pronounced since World War U, of economic nationalism in the "underdeveloped" countries. These countries, most of themolonial background, find that though they have achieved political independence, their undeveloped economies, producing mostly raw materials and agricultural products, are still tied to those of the industrialized Western- nations which provide markets for their goods. They are in essence still semi-colonial areas, for their economicupon the metropolitan economics tends to vitiate their political Independence. Therefore native nationalists have not been wholly satisfied by the achievement ofindependence; they demand economic Independence as well.
The aim of this economic nationalism is to attain greater economicthrough developmentiversified economy, usually by Industrialization. It has led the underdeveloped countries to favor tariffs, import restrictions, and other trade barriers to protect their Infant Industries. This attitude has characterized not only the recently liberated countries but many long since independent, like the Latin American nations, which still have semi-colonial economies. It was most clearly displayed at the recent Havana Trade Conference, where the underdevelopedstrongly opposed multilateral free trade and charged lhat the US and othernations were stunting their economic development in order to keep them permanently dependent.
With the largest segments of the colonial systems either already liberated or In the last stages of liberation, this aspect of the colonial problem becomesimportant. The economic nationalism of the underdeveloped nations conflicts sharply with US trade objectives and these countries tend lo resent US economicOn the olher hand, they urgently need external assistance in their economic development, and the US is at present the only nation able to supply it. The desire for US loans and private investment will have some effect in tempering the antagonism of these slates toward US policies. However, the underdeveloped countries display an increasing tendency to demand US aidatural right, irrespective of anyon their part, and to feel that the US will be forced to invest abroad because of insufficient Internal demand for ils existing capital resources.
Colonial Issue in the Utf.
Colonial problems have been brought increasingly into the UN, which native nationalists and their supporters have found an ideal forum for agitating the colonial
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issue Thereronounced tendency toward the formation in the UNolonialconsisting ot formerly dependent states UJce India and the Arab nations, others lute China and Iran with strong racial and religious sympathies toward colonial peoples (also characteristic of the firstndhird group like many Latin American republics and Australia, which sympathize on liberal, humanitarian, and economic grounds. The colonial bloc has consistently sought to broaden the UN trusteeship system. China, India, the USSR, the Philippines, and the Arab states contend that Articlef the UN charter, which binds members to promote thedevelopment of self-government in their dependencies. Implies that the UN should have bread supervisory powers over these dependencies. Critical colonial situations like the Indonesian question and Egypt's demand that Qreat Britainher troops have been brought before the Security Council as potential threats to world peace. The underdeveloped countries have insisted on emphasizing their own economic problems In UN economic bodies. Thus, through the UN. the colonial issue has been placed squarely on the world stage and local colonial problems have become matters of global concern. The colonial "bloc- and the USSR may be expected to bring more and more of such problems before the UN and to attempt to use Itechanism for liquidating the colonial empires.
d. Sotxploitation oj tht Colonial Itsut.
The USSR is effectively exploiting the colonial issue and the allied Issues of economic nationalism and racial antagonism in an eflort to divide the non-Soviet world, weaken the European allies of the US. and gain the good will of the colonialn pursuit of these objectives, the USSR is: (I) giving active support through agitators, propaganda, and local Communist parties to the nationalist movements throughout the colonial world;onsistently injecting colonial and Alliedinto UN and affiliated activities.
The Soviet regime has always looked upon the so-called "depressed areas"ertile field for penetration, and8 the Comintern has stressed the importance of stirring up discontent in these areas.on-colonial power, the USSR Is in the fortunate position of being able to champion the colonial cause unreservedly andbid for the good will of colonial and former colonial areas, its condemnation of racial discrimination pleases native nationalists and tends to exclude the USSR from the racial animosity of East toward West The Communists have sought lo Infiltrate the nationalist parlies in dependent and formerly dependent areas and have been, as in Burma. Indonesia, and Indochina, among the most vocal agitators for independence TheUnion has found the World Federation of Trade Unions an effective weapon for penetrating the growing labor movements In Asia and Africa and for turning them against the colonial powers
At lhe San Francisco Conference In which the UN Charter was framed the USSR foughtrovision categorically demanding eventual independence for all colonies. Since lhat time, it has frequently injected the colonial issue into UNand has strenuously supported the colonial "bloc" on all colonial and allied questions brought into the UN. Persistent Soviet support of the colonial "bloc" on
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purely colonial Issues may win adherents from the colonial "bloc" for the USSR on other major Issues between the USSR and the Western Powers In the UN. Thus the Soviet Union clearly recognizes the potential of the colonial Issue for weakening itsand has made of It an Important element in the power struggle between the Western Powers and the USSR.
4. Inevitability or Fvuruxa Colohlu. DisnrreaaATiOH.
Under these circumstances, some further disintegration of the remaining colonial empires appears Inevitable. Native nationalism In these dependencies will Increase as the inhabitants, spurred on by the example of the already liberated nations, seek to emulate them. Indonesia and Indochina are apparently already in the final stage before full independence, and crises will arise in other colonial areas as local nationalists clamor Increasingly for self-government. The USSR and the colonial "bloc" will lend external support to these groups and utilize the UNeans of assisting them. The weakened colonial powers, stricken by war and economic crisis, will find it difficult to cope with these Insistent nationalist pressures.
The colonial powers, belatedly aware of the threat to their empires, have shown some willingness to liquidate the most troublesome of their possessions and to make concessions in others. The Western European socialist parties,ajor influence In many governments, appear more willing than their conservative predecessors to adopt colonial reforms although their colonial policies lo date have shown little change. Some of the colonial powers have adopted more progressive colonial policies, offering concessions to their dependencies in an effort to stave oft the demand for independence. The UK In particular, after recognizing that Independence for India and Burma was inevitable. Is cautiously promoting greater self-government In Its remaining colonies and has earmarked large sums for their economic development (although Britain's present economic weakness has prevented full development ol thesehe Netherlands has granted substantial concessions in Indonesia, although clearlyto make every effort to keep this rich area under her control. France, loo, while making minimal reforms In critical areas, seeks to draw her dependencies closer to the mother countryrench Union.
These concessions, however, at least on the limited scale presently contemplated, appear unlikely to do more than temporarily placate local nationalism and at most delay the demand for liberation. Differences in race, language, andtrong East-West antagonism, make Dutch and French plans for integration of their colonies into French and Netherlands Unions unlikely to succeed in areas like Indochina, Indonesia, and French North Africa where native nationalism is already well advanced Moreover, stimulation of colonial economic and social development and granting of greater political autonomy may well promote local nationalism rather than weaken it. As the colonies become more highly developed, they will become more conscious of their dependent status and more insistcnl upon independence. They also will be better able to create viable economies and to function as Independent stales. Under these circumstances limited concessions arc likely to be effective. In
the long run, only In relatively small or backward areas which would in any case be likely to remainrotecting power.
5. EwractMcaew Powaa Situation ih nor. Formir Colonial Woblo.
As the result of the gradual disintegration of the colonial systems and theof young, nationalisticew power situation Is in the making in the former colonial world. No longer will the western colonial powers control large areas of Asia and North Africa which are sources of manpower and raw materials and providemilitary bases. The economic and political policies formerly Imposed by the colonial powers on their colonies will give wayelter of conflicting national policies. This process is already largely completed, with many of the most important dependent and semi-dependent areas, such as India, Burma, the Arab states, and the Philippines already Independent, and Indonesia and Indochina well on the road. These new and emergent statu will be free to determine their own economic policies and future
ong period, however, these new states will find it difficult to stand alone. Though actively promoting their own political and economic development, they will remain for some time semi dependent areas, forced to rely on the great powers for protection and assistance. Their relatively backward stage of political, economic, and social evolution, their lack of developed resources, and the absence of technical skills and education among the mass of their peoples make Ihem dependent upon outside help In their development. Militarily, they will be unable to withstand any major power. Economically, they will still be undeveloped countries, lied to the largereconomies. The effect, therefore, of the disintegration of the colonial systems and the withdrawal of the colonial powers Is the creationower vacuum In the Near and Far East.
There Is danger that unless the Western European nations, and with them the US, can secure the good will of these newly liberated and as yet dependent areas, they may become aligned with the USSR. Several factors; friction over the colonial issue,nationalism, and the racial antagonism between East and West, may tend to orient these areas away from the US and the Western Powers The newly liberated states will entertain some hostility toward the former colcnial powers, and as these powers belong to the Western bloc supported by the US. this hostility will extend in some degree toward the US also. US support of the colonial powers in tlie UN also has tended lo make the dependent peoples and their supporters suspicious of US motives. In the economic sphere, the new and undeveloped countries tend lo resent US economic dominance and lo fear that the US and other Industrializedntend lo keep them economically dependent The USSR, pursuing an assimilative racial policy and able to represent itself to colonial peoples as largely Asiatic, escapes much of lhe resentment of colored toward white peoples; while US tieatment of its Negroes, powerfully played up by Soviet propaganda, embarrasses the US on this issue. Racial restrictions in areas like South Africa and Australia also arouse colonial resentment. Moreover, the poverty and backwardness of the colonial and former colonial world, combined with the restrictive policies of the colonial powers, has en-
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hanced the appear of radical political philosophies and tended lo place leadership of Indigenous nationalist groups In the hands of extremists. This tendency Is evident In the existence of active pro-Communist parties in such areas as China. Indochina, Burma, and Indonesia. Thus the basic backwardness of these areas, their resentment toward the past or present dominating powers, and the existence of strong leftist elements within them, make them peculiarly susceptible to Soviet penetration. Should the USSR In turn, however, become In the eyes of thesehreat to theirthey would actively oppose Soviet domination too.
6. Implications for US SecuaiTY.
The break-up of the colonial systems and the creationeries of newslates may adversely affect the present power balance of the US and Western Europe versus the USSR, particularly it these new stales become friendly toward Ihe USSR and hostile toward the US and its allies.
a. The loss of their dependencies weakens the colonial powers, which are the chief prospective US allies. These nations rely upon Iheir colonies as sources of raw materials, mililary manpower, and revenue, and as strategic military bases. Prance, for example, draws heavUy upon Its North and West African empire In most of the above respects; and the breaking away of these areas, especially North Africa, would seriously weaken Its strategic position. UK withdrawal from India and Burma already has substantially affected its strategic capabilities in the Middle and Far East. Tbe Netherlands would be weakened economically by the defection of its rich Indonesian possessions.
he drift of the dependent areas away from the orbit of the colonial powers deprives the US itself of an assured access to bases and raw materials In many of these areas, an increasingly serious loss In view of global US strategic needs and growingon foreign mineral resources. Bases in French North Africa and the Middle East, for example, would be strategically vital in event of conflict The growing US list of strategic and criticalof whkh like tin and rubber ore available largely In colonial and former colonialthe dependence of the US upon these arras. The US has heretofore been able to count upon the availability of such bases and materials in the colonial dependencies of friendly powers; but the new nations arising in these areas, Jealous of their sovereignty, may well be reluctant to lend such assistance to the US.
e. Possible Soviet domination of certain fotmcr dependent areas or theirtoward the USSR wouldajor threat lo US security.ossibility is strongest In Asiatic peripheral areas around the USSR, where the danger ot Soviel penetration is acute. Soviet control of areas like Iran, Burma. Indochina. Indonesia, or Korea, whether through occupation, alliance or friendly neutrality, would helpSoviet control of the Asiatic continent, make the USSR more invulnerable to external attack, assure Its access to vital materials like oil. tin. and rubber, and place
it astride strategic sea lanes.
d. Colonial antagonism toward the US would hampetUS in ils relations with colonial areas should their metropolitan powers fall wilhin Ihe Soviet orbit in event of
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war. While govcrnments-in-exilc probably would be formed, they might prove unable to control their dependencies, which might seize tliis opportunity to further their own nationalist aims by revolt. Were the US forced lo occupy these territories for strategic reasons, its task would be much more difficult if they were hostile.
e. The colonial Issue also tends to create recurring crises which promote world unrest. Increasing resort lo lhe UN to deal with the swelling chorus of colonialand the pressure In behalf of dependent peoplesarge bloc of sympathetic states tends to magnify these grievances out of all proportion to their local significance. The USSR, seeking lo promote any unrest In colonial areas, will quickly exploil its disruptive possibilities.
Consequently, the good will of the recently liberated and emergent Independent statesital factor in the future position ot the US in the Near and Far East The breaking up ot the colonial systems and the gradual withdrawing of the colonial powers from these areas has faced the US itself with lhe problem ot filling tbe gap left by their withdrawal. The US stand on the colonial issue and economic nationalism willajor effect on the attitudes of these colonial and former colonial areas. Yet the US Is currently In an unfortunate positionis the USSR with respect to such issues. On ttie one hand, the US has historically sympathized with the aspirations of dependent peoples for self-government and has pledged Itself to this end in the Atlantic Charter and in the United Nations.esult, the dependent andareas have come to expect and demand US backing in their struggle forTo the extent that the US acquiesces in or supports restrictive colonial policies on the part of the Western European nations, it will jeopardize its position in these areasolicy will lay the US open to charges of Inconsistency andand may lead to loss of the voting support of the colonial bloc in the UN. It will allow the USSR, in particular, to pose as champion of the colonial cause and thus gain the good will of the dependent and former dependent areas.
On the other hand, the European colonial powers are the chief prospective US allies in its power struggle with the USSR and it is difficult for the US to oppose these powers on colonial issues. These nations arc anxious to retain as muchold as possible on their dependencies, partly for economic and strategic reasons, but also for prestige. Should these countries lose the benefits o( their colonial empires, it would hamper their economic recovery and possibly threaten the stability of governments friendly to the US.
If, however, the colonial powers do not basically irtodify their present colonial policies, they will in the long run lose the very strategic and economic advantages in their dependencies and former dependencies that they are seeking to retain. Suchpolicies will not arrest the development of local nationalism but may in fact so aggravate il as lo alienate the local populations and minimize lhe possibility ofany benefits whatsoever. Moreover, attempts at forcible retention of critical colonial areas in the face of growing nationalist pressme may actually weaken rather than strengthen the colonial powers. French and Dutch efforts to suppress local nationalism by force in Indonesia and Indochina, for example,rain on funds
urgently needed for reconstruction and may create such antagonism lhat no profitable economic development will be feasible for an extended period.
The colonial powers musl fully recognise the irresistible force of nationalism In their dependencies and lake leadership in guiding these dependencies gradually toward eventual self-government or independence, if they are to retain their favored position In Ihescolicy of far-rcaehlng colonial reforms, designed to foster colonial political, economic, and social development, would do much to neutralise Ihe more violent aspects of native nationalism and lo substitute orderly evolution toward the Inevitable goal of Independence for the violent upheavals characteristic of the present situation. Only throughew cooperative relationship can the colonial powers in the long runto retain their close ties with these areas and the maximum of political and economic advantage. Unless the colonial powers can be induced to recognize this necessity for satisfying the aspirations of their dependencies and can devise formulae which will retain their good wilt as emergent Independent slates, bolh these powers and the US will be placederious disadvantage in the new power situation In the Near and Far East.
In the economic sphere, since the USominant role In world irade and Is the nation currently most capable of supplying the capital needs of thecountries, the attilude of the US itself toward the efforts of these areas to achieve greater economic self-sufficiency willreat effect on their goodwill US failure toore sympathetic attitude toward the economic nationalism of the underdeveloped countries or at least partially to meet their demands for capital as-alstancc will stimulate the charges, already heard, of US economic imperialism and seriously affect US relations with these areas.
The US, therefore, is facederious dilemma On the one hand USof colonial seii-deteimination and economic development may itself incur the charge ot US Imperialism and run the risk of alienating the colonial powers. On the other hand, lhc US may be unable to afford to let its policy on colonial issues be swayed by the colonial powers if such support of its allies tends lo alienate thepeoples and other non European countries, lay the groundwork for future disruption, and in the long run weaken the power balance of bolh Ihe US and ihe Western European nationsis the USSR.
Original document.
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