WEEKLY SUMMARY: EASTERN EUROPE: A KREMLIN DECISION TO IMPOSE A BLOCKADE OF VI

Created: 10/22/1948

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EUROPE

A Kremlin decisionlockade of Vlmna Is not likely during UN discussions on ihe Berlin question.ecision will await further dovolopment of East-West relations and will depend primarily on the Kremlin's estimate of US susceptibility to further pressure and secondarily on theevaluation of the probable effectlockade of Vienna on Soviet objectives in Austria. Indefinite continuation ol the East-West Impasse may Induce the USSR to disregard completely the possible consequences of further Soviet aggression and to extend its blockade to Vienna. The Immediate objective ofove would be to force the western powers out of the city.aneuver would also reflect the Kremlin's Intention to freeze the present line dividing Europe, to partition Austria, and to eliminate western political influence east of these lines.emporary settlement of the Berlin dispute would tend to reduce the likelihoodoviet blockade of Vienna, the threatlockade would continue in the background until basic,East-West differences had been settled. Moreover, this threat will exist until the Kremlin decides that Its objectives In Austria can be beat achieved through successful conclusion of the Austrian treaty and withdrawal of allied occupation forces.

YUGOSLAVIA

Soviet-directed Satellite political moves againsthave deepened the Tito-Comini orra rift, although the USSR apparently does not Intend to interfere with Yugoslavia's economic relations with the East. Poland has -recently recalled Its cultural group from Yugoslavia and the Yugoslav Peoples' Front Party has been dissolved In Bulgaria. Meanwhile, tbe Yugoslavs have countered by recalling students from Poland and by renewed press attacks against the Comlnform countries. Despite this mounting political tension, the USSR and itsarc maintaining trade relations with Yugoslavia tn an

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jn.irr.'j& to receive tbe adv.jr-ia^es ofrJ to pre vein the development of economic tiesYugoslavia rtnd Ihe West. Negotiations for aSoviet-Yugoslav trade agreement are proceedingscow. :md the Polos apparently intend to renew their tradent witl: Yugoslavia in November.